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Bushfire Australian Widespread Bushfire Risk on Tuesday 12th November - and beyond

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by Stillcold, Nov 10, 2019.

  1. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Boomer logic ;)
     
  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Average wind speeds will not be overly severe but the Models are showing some very Gusty activity. Around 20 % Humidity. South Coast looks quite worrying imo.
     
    piolet likes this.
  3. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    bullshit. There’s been plenty of days that fit this bill before, now we just call them catastrophic.
     
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  4. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Closing so many schools is a new development. With the exception of bush isolated hamlets surely kids would be "safer" in school ?

    Calm and balmy in Jindy.
     
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  5. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    A teacher's job doesn't require them to put the lives of themselves and their families on the line so that parents can avoid a day off work.

    I'm not sure what the protocol is at hospitals
     
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  6. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    pick a station. Any station.
     
  7. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Actually quite cool in the northern beaches
    Smokey af tho
     
  8. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    What for?
     
  9. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    What?

    As far as I can tell there is nothing life threatening going to a school tomorrow. Are we all going to stop crossing roads? Far more likely to die doing that.
     
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  10. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    BTW we have a sheep graziers' alert and a chance of snow on the peaks
     
  11. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Depends where the teachers live
    And the students
     
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  12. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    That you can tell?
    Cool, call the RFS and gov and let em know
     
  13. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    What is this "ideology"? Is Alan Jones on it?
     
  14. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah, we tend to name those days in the past
    Black Friday
    Ash Wednesday
    Black saturday
    Etc
     
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  15. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    Presumably one can’t take their kids out of school and cut themselves off from any form of media. Pretty sure that doesn’t make for a good fire plan for anyone. Replace radio with any other form of media. There is not a lot of objectivity happening.
     
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  16. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    for the small percentage.
     
  17. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    you are preaching it. Mr Jones. Is that you?
    That would explain a lot.
     
  18. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, only going to get worse.
    Planning an early ride before scooting to work, pending smoke
     
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  19. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    do you know different. Enlighten us.
     
  20. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    No. It depends what happens in the future. Like most other days.
     
  21. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    Catastrophic is a specific category included in 2009 because the current classifications did not encompass the conditions experienced during a Black ??day event. It is accurate reporting of a fire brigade decision.
     
  22. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, the really bad ones.

    You riding ST tomorrow? If not, why not?
     
  23. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well my mates kids school around the road is closed, it abuts a huge dry bushland. If it didn't closed and the catastrophic fire danger became reality with a bunch of kids there... Wtf do you expect them to do?

    I smell smoke and outrage. Gees, man.
     
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  24. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    Going to work. Like you.
     
  25. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    All the destruction so far is in areas similar to the horrendous Ash Wed fires, primarily isolated homes, hamlets, small towns immersed in bush etc.

    That said I have stood on the back verandah of our Central Coast beach property and thought .... if the bush goes up the only place that won't burn is the beach. There is no way out.

    The local school will be closed tomorrow which is a first.
     
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  26. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    By whom?

    Oh shit not the experts! What would they know
     
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  27. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    Massive if. PKB.
     
  28. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    So earlier this week there were 3 people killed and hundreds of houses lost. And tomorrow conditions are forecast to be significantly worse across a wider area. At what point should the RFS and other services send out some serious warnings? Should they wait until 5 minutes before a fire hits to tell people that it might actually be a day worth worrying about?

    I really hope tomorrow the biggest thing we have to worry about are the whingers complaining about "too many warnings".
     
  29. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pkb?

    Also risk = chance X consequence

    That's the dice they're rolling and "they" don't like what they see so...
     
  30. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    Do you often gamble with the safety of your children?
     
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  31. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep

    Warning fatigue is a delicate balance

    I hope that's the discussion on Wednesday

    Jonesy may have a hernia over it
     
  32. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    Don’t have an issue with warnings. Creating hordes of unsupervised kids is a little more of an issue, along with general media hysteria.
     
  33. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    Every time we cross the road apparently.
     
  34. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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    Give up Ralphplough,you won't get through to these people.They tend to band together and put down
    anybody with a different view.Exaggeration is the way of the world today.
     
  35. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Whywontanyonethinkofthechildren.lovejoy
     
  36. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. Shove them out and let the little buggers fend for themselves.
     
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  37. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    During the 2003 bushfires, we went to community meetings that told us that anyone who was prepared and fit could protect their house. That was the mantra for a long time.

    After black saturday the advice changed completely - Just get out if it's a code red day; doesnt matter how prepared you are, you will be putting your life on the line if you stay in those conditions. I know seasoned fire fighters who were terrified on black saturday, it was a whole new level.

    I don't know if nsw tomorrow will be that bad, but if it is then all the precautions are justified. 180 people died as a result of the black saturday fires. They would have mostly thought that it was just another extreme day like all the others they had seen.
     
  38. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    They need a good agitator every now and then or they get even more self righteous. I know it’s hard to believe......
     
  39. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    Or you could be a clown.

    Open the schools. Send the kids. Outsource their care to the teachers.
     
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  40. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

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    The thing is is that a lot of schools have closed on their own accord, ie. Private schools. The list of schools posted by the gov were closed by the gov I assume. For some places like @dawooduck said, it would be probably safer for kids to be in school, especially in places where schools are in densely populated areas (no risk of bushfire). The smaller public schools which are located in direct bushfire threat - absolutely agree with the closure of them!!

    A quick look at the upper level temperatures and I cannot see how the city is going to reach 37c-38c? 850 temps max out at around 19C in the Syd basin - usually means temps of low 30s, albeit my relatively limited weather knowledge lol. As someone aid before, sustained winds don't look overly bad, but it looks extremely gusty (85kph+) for areas between Bombala to Bowral and up through the CTs
     
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  41. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Blessed be the agitators


    Or not
     
  42. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    In 2001 we did exactly the opposite.

    Like I said, no issue with warnings and being vigilant. Complete shut down on a slim maybe is objectionable.
     
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  43. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    You clearly don’t get it. At least you’re consistent.
     
  44. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    A school, in the main, with it's cleared land, sturdy buildings, fire control systems and emergency plans would be a much safer environment for the kids than keeping them home scattered through the community in an uncontrolled environment.

    IMHO
     
  45. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    The problem with slim maybes is that you can never predict where they might pop up, if they do.
     
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  46. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some
     
  47. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    Yeah. Like getting hit by a car.
     
  48. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is there anyone in the thread who was touched by black saturday who thinks that the precaution are overkill?

    I've said that the threshold may be too low. None the less, I'd rather leave that call to the fire/weather scientists than to employers and shock jocks
     
  49. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perhaps you can explain? What don't I get? You want to send the kids to open schools. If a slim maybe occurs who looks after the kids?
     
  50. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    As I said, shove the little buggers out into the traffic. Why would you take any precautions for their safety?