Bushfire Australian Widespread Bushfire Risk on Tuesday 12th November - and beyond

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by Stillcold, Nov 10, 2019.

  1. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    Surely life would be boring if everyone just said “aye aye captain” all the time.
     
  2. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    Yes because I am clearly advocating zero fire precautions.
     
  3. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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  4. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Of course, if in an isolated hamlet surrounded by bush then get everyone out, city, suburbs, major settled areas not so much.

    The roaring beast of an out of control uncontrollable fire needs fuel, wind, heat and cumulative distance to mature it's full destructive force.

    Nymboda is very different to Copacabana etc
     
  5. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's exactly where we're at

    o_O
     
  6. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hey kids, don’t you have some gutters to clear or a box of matches to play with :confused:
     
  7. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just spoke to Klettergirl who said how long do you think it would take to evacuate/ relocate safely the 1000 students in our school ? Remember that gusts of the magnitude forecast mean that a newly sprung fire will move extremely fast.
     
  8. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I still agree with the advice you got in 2003. How many people died in that? It was a multi-day event as opposed to Black Sat which was a single day thing. The 2003 fire was slower moving and conditions weren't nearly as bad as 2009. Houses were defendable in 2003. They were not in 2009. 2003 wouldn't have rated a catastrophic day. But since 2009, as soon as there's smoke they're screaming at people to get out, regardless of the conditions. This response will ultimately drive complacency and is definitely the cause of the loss of many houses which do not need to be lost. My personal opinion only.

    That said, with tomorrow being a catastrophic day in parts of NSW, no way should people stay to defend.
     
  9. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    Are you? That 's a bit odd.

    Do your fire precautions involve sending your children to the care of teachers (who, incidentally, did not sign on for looking after your kids in bushfires)? Or is there a shred of personal responsibility for your family in your psyche?
     
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  10. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    I’m advocating zero precautions. Remember? Do try and keep up.
     
  11. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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    A good read for ya
    https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/bushfire-black-saturday-victoria-2009/
     
  12. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    Are you serious?
     
  13. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    As serious as you.
     
  14. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am quite serious. Does that mean you advocate no precautions and outsourcing the safety of your children to their teachers?
     
  15. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snort

    The same people whinging about feral children on the loose tomorrow are the same ones who whinge that current generation of kids are parented by helicopter parents. Can't win.
     
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  16. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    Uh huh.

     
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  17. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    what?
     
  18. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    my bad fixed it!
     
  19. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    I can't be responsible for the obvious implications of your posts.
     
  20. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    uh huh.
     
  21. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Much rogue
    Very maverick
     
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  22. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    Translation: Oh dear. I appear to have made a bit of a goose of myself.
     
  23. Gimp

    Gimp One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  24. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agreed

    2009 conditions had nothing in common with 2003.

    2003 was lit up by widespread lightening strikes - too many to fight all at once and they got away. other than the start, nothing happened quickly.

    I do worry that they cry wolf a bit now. the most dangerous conditions need extarordinary precautions, but not every fire does
     
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  25. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    More like “legs has decided he needs to put his words in other peoples mouths to suit his own silly little ego, rather than actually address the points in question”

    But happy to go with what you want. I’d hate to hurt your feelings.
     
  26. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here's your chance. Tell us your real opinion.
     
  27. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    Read the thread
     
  28. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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  29. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't know who's getting hysterical, my old man reckons everyone's getting hysterical as well but I haven't seen it yet (well aside from the usual suspects in the media). Maybe he just reads too much shitposting on the interwebz, he's in his 60's but likes to keep up on current trends.

    Anyway I've taken note of the warnings, cleared the shit ton of pine needles from the roof that I'd been putting of the last couple of years and put a few things in a box that cant be replaced should we need to leave in a hurry. Will be at work tomoz monitoring conditions ready to drop by and pick up the dog should the shit hit the fan.

    A couple of friends who live in particularly vulnerable spots in the lower-mid BM's have elected to stay home which seems sensible after what happened in 2013. Fingers crossed that fire up around Woodford remains contained, shit should get pretty real pretty fast if that jumped into the next valley behind Linden, very rugged and in-accessible terrain and about 15km in a straight line to the NW of my place.
     
  30. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    I have. That's what worries me. You seem to be a bit nuts.
     
  31. ralphplough

    ralphplough One of Us

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    Let me rephrase. Understand the thread.
     
  32. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    The BOM issues advices like the one being discussed for a reason. I cannot specifically relate to fire weather warnings but I can when it comes to cyclones. If a region is under threat from a cyclone, schools etc are instructed to close until the threat passed. If your property or community ends up being spared you count yourself lucky. It isn't overkill by any means if it saves lives. Has anyone here had the misfortune of hearing the standard emergency warning sound? I can recall a few years ago in a news story that it would be used for bushfire alerts down south. People laughed at it comparing it with the theme music for Dr Who. For severe weather events and what you guys down south may and will potentially be affected by no amount of precautions and warnings will ever be enough.
     
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  33. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    So any way TBC just called to tell.me my old mum is in a high state of anxiety. Sure there is a bush reserve two doors down but she has lived there for 67 yrs and whilst the bush has burnt it's nothing spectacular. It's city suburbs.

    Side effects of blanket news disaster amplitude
     
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  34. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    In the 2013 BM fires, there was no media hooha before hand. We were told by our local RFS on 16/10 that properties would be lost as there was no way of saving houses with the forecast conditions and the fact there was already a fire. There were no official warnings either, just the normal TFB.
    On 17/19 196 houses were lost, 11 here, some people came within an inch of being trapped and fried.
    A few days later when conditions worsened again but not nearly to the levels of 17/10, the govt and media had played catch up and an evacuation of the whole BM’s was recommended!
    Nothing happened that day!
    I feel they don’t want to be caught with their pants down again, which is wise.
    However the media circus is appalling and waiting for blood.
     
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  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a double edged sword. The amount of shitposting in this thread is a great example of the current mood.

    Hopefully it's all shitposting tomorrow and nothing serious goes down
     
  36. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    As best I can work out you are in favour of:
    • Keeping schools open regardless of risk assessments; and
    • Consigning your kids to the care of teachers regardless of risk.
    If that is wrong explain what you actually mean.
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A composite view of various weather model plots are painting a grimm picture. Make no mistake tomorow will feature extremely volatile conditions.
     
  38. GS

    GS Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    That’s my thoughts; damned if they do, damned if they don’t and all that.

    After Black Sat when we continued to have a fire burning just to the north of us for a few weeks, I ended up turning off radios and tv etc other than checking the weather forecast once a day. the amount of hooha was way too stressing, I preferred stick with our plan that we felt would work for our location
     
  39. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The winds worry me the most.
    It's a winter westerly at 90/100km gusts... At 38 degrees . With 8% humidity.
     
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  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Probability of Gusts exceeding 65 kmh
     
  41. kylep

    kylep Cage rattler Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah unfortunately the media are a great asset to get the message out, but they often put a little too much spin on it. Remember they are experts at making stories sound great, they are jack of all trades when it comes to the subject matter
     
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  42. kylep

    kylep Cage rattler Ski Pass: Gold

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    Briefing tonight forecasting 6% RH. The winds are a big concern, and cHaines not good.
     
  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A possibly evil zone
     
  44. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Get some sleep if you’re near affected areas kiddies, you’re going to need the rest if it kicks off.

    Hopefully this time tomorrow we’ll just making snarky comments about overreactions.
     
  45. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    I reckon you should invest in some cigarettes for yourself.
     
  46. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    What is the forest fire index and grass fire index for tomorrow?
     
  47. AlanD

    AlanD Part of the Furniture

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    Hey guys with experience. Are we better moving things like gas cylinders 45kg and 9kg into the shed, into the middle of a completely eaten down paddock or leaving them in situ. If in situ I assume shut off. Ditto plastic fuel drums most of which I've emptied.
     
  48. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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  49. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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  50. Normo

    Normo Mostly Harmless Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will I have to fit chains.........?

    :out: