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Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Vermillion, Mar 1, 2010.

  1. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Time for a new thread.

    Do we need a new thread purely for snowfall predictions as there is still non-snow weather worth paying attention to around AUS through autumn?
     
  2. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Observation: First Day Of Autumn feels like Autumn.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Interesting week to come. Potential for a cold outbreak and widespread rain for the SE through the weekend. Lets see what happens.
     
  4. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Rain in Sydney again. Some good falls for the inland this week by the look of the charts. Will be good to get a few rivers flowing again.
    It is now autumn which means the next season is WINTER.....
     
  5. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    More than 200mm for birdsville in the last day or so and still coming down!! Looks like rain is falling across southern QLD as forecast. Some good falls as far east as St George with more to come in the next 24 hrs. Everything is already wet out that way so the rivers should start flowing. Perhaps some more water for Lake Eyre and another flush for the Darling.

    Cubby Station may even be able to turn a profit after this lot.
     
  6. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wet and cool on the Real CC. Feels like autumn
     
  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cool this morning in melbourne, felt very autumn/winter-ish.

    GFS has downgraded for the weekends rain event, and snow doesnt look on the cards on this mornings run. The other models seem to be holding. This afternoons run will be interesting as it'll put it within 72hrs.
     
  8. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    rain rain and more rain in Brissy....Nice!!!
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS was always going to downgrade wasn't it. EC has downgraded even further with a weak low passing below Tasmania on Friday, and a high over Victoria by Sunday.
    Still GFS and BOM are still predicting 25mm+ for most of Victoria for this period.
     
  10. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Big total for southern QLD. Looks like widespread 100-250mm and 50mm+ around the fringes.
     
  11. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah its weird how they progged that inland low to push down over the mainland and into Vicco? optimistic
    yet everything I see is pointing out to sea.?
    I see a trough cooking some stuff over the inland friday with a bit of a NE feed...

    Anyways my main concern is Sydneys weather saturday
    Festivals with rain suck
     
  12. markopolo

    markopolo Naughty Corner Resident Ski Pass: Gold

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    #12 markopolo, Mar 2, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  13. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Hmm... the longest lasting thread I have ever started has now been superceded. Oh well.

    Liking what I am seeing for Friday/Saturday. From a weather perspective, that is. From a camp-on-the-beach perspective: [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #13 ice_man, Mar 2, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry ice_man, but i was about 10seconds too slow at starting that summer thread too [​IMG] I got in first this time.

    GFS has upgraded rainfall amounts again this morning, with a Feb 2005-type ECL system to emerge on Monday. I dont see that happening, but it looks like good totals from Friday-Sunday/Monday. BOM said between 10-25mm across the state but it could be significantly higher in some places.
     
    #14 Vermillion, Mar 3, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think GFS is dreaming if this amount of rain fall will come off. ice_man will need a boat to get home and the Thomson dam will fill. [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    BOM are bullish too

    [​IMG]
     
    #15 Claude Cat, Mar 3, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  16. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    Both these (!!) scenarios have most of the rain falling in the Macalister basin and east I reckon. Thomson would miss a good deal of it.
    Given the silliness of that scenario however...
    The GFS looks to be underestimating rainfall in the Vic sw going by the Bom 4 Dayer too.
    Going to work now...
     
    #16 The Plowking, Mar 3, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  17. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's funny how i laugh at the current GFS scenario, but in Feb 2005 i did the same and it came off.
     
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    But the sat picture is so lame
    They expected a low to form off the QLD coast that would promote moisture into the trough
    It doesn't look like happening.
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS downgrading nicely this afternoon. Again.
     
  20. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS taking a particular dislike to Tasmania on the +120 run this morning, deciding it needs to be annihilated.
     
  21. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG] - I still question whether it will turn out like that.

    Looks like it has stopped raining here in Brissy now,....however more rain progged for the weekend. Yew, stay away heat!
     
    #21 smitty484, Mar 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Raining in Western NSW this morning, some good totals already.

    We're waiting for it down here in VIC.
     
  23. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The flows coming out of southern queenslands rivers are sensational. over 200 000 ML/day out of one and a handful with over 100000ML/day on the way down.
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS changes quite a bit for each run. Anyway, I think for Melbourne we're probably in for 20-25mm all up. If we're lucky we might get a bit more. Most of the state should do ok, perhaps areas in the east to 50mm.
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Latest GFS run has Ballarat suffering epic floods. [​IMG]
     
    #25 Claude Cat, Mar 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS Liftex is showing a great potential for storms on Saturday and Sunday afternoon; Verm you watch those storms if you're out on WP!!
     
  27. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    O-oh. Going to be in Merideth for the weekend...
     
    #27 The Plowking, Mar 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  28. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon the west of the state looks wetter with the following front
     
    #28 The Plowking, Mar 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  29. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    damn.......we are camping at wye river for the weekend...... the 4 day looks wet wet wet down there
     
  30. SuskiQ

    SuskiQ Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    OK weather gurus - are we going to get washed off Wilsons Prom over the weekend?
    Do I need to pack my ark when we go hiking?
     
  31. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Possibly.

    Ill be out early Sunday, hopefully ill be in around midday, it doesnt look so happy after that.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    BOM and GFS going for some spectacular totals for next four days.
    [​IMG]

    I can't quite see it happening in Melbourne (I'm still leaning to 20mm or less). But the west will do well.
     
    #32 Claude Cat, Mar 5, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Eastern ranges look like doing ok today. Going to be a wet weekend that's for sure.
     
  34. ahronshapiro

    ahronshapiro Hard Yards

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    Raining steadily in Elsternwick.
    It's music to my ears.
     
  35. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Disappointing in Melbourne so far today.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    Definitely a fizzer in the opening gambit of this system. I'm starting to think my original (pessimistic) 20mm is and over estimation. The weekend is still looking stormy. Especially Sunday.
     
  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Weird though, some good totals east of Melbourne though. Still a bit on the way.
     
  38. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Very good in Wagga Wagga so far. At my place there has been nice steady soaking rain all morning and we've had around 25mm (despite what the shitehouse BOM gauge down the road says).

    With a bit more water out in the interior we could be in for a wet year.
     
  39. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Look like a lot of the rain in the early part of this system has been on the ranges and to the east of Melbourne.
     
  40. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Out west did good last night.
     
  41. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    Steady light rain here in Jindy since about 10am with maybe 5mm so far
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Radar showing that perhaps this evening might be better in Melbourne.
     
  43. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah i think it's Melbourne's turn tonight.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    BOM has done a massive downgrade in rainfall for Melbourne, now just scattered showers with chance of thunderstorms.
     
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    fizzer. Complete. Wow i didnt expect that. For Melbourne that is, it just evapourated to nothing.
     
  46. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    On the other hand GFS has gone spastic for Monday, pulling system after system out of nowhere.
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    EC was always going for a system on Monday.
    Although to be fair EC now thinks it will come through on Tuesday.
     
  48. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Utterly. Very dissapointing. Most models were going for this trough and the front-now cutoff- following to combine. Temperatures are now mid 20s thru the weekend where 19-20 looked likely even last night. There is still plenty of potential for good totals over weekend but such a letdown for melbourne so far.
    Ballarat did ok
     
    #48 The Plowking, Mar 5, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  49. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks to feed back in on Monday somewhat.
     
  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you believe the models that is.