Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Vermillion, Mar 1, 2010.

  1. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Did Bendigo do the best with 45.6?? Not a bad total!!
     
  2. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not after today. GFS hasnt been bad this year up till this one
     
    #52 The Plowking, Mar 5, 2010
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  3. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    And farked if I know whats going to happen on the bay for you sunday Verm
     
  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    0.5m increasing to 1m in the morning then holding. A weird E/SE wind so ill be fine if i hang around the top. Looks like Bouy 8 is out of the question though. I think ill be fine if i get out early, get my fish then get in. Cheers anyway.

    Ive saved the Monday GFS tonight, i want to see what actually happens and how wrong GFS was.
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS has pretty much over estimated all the rainfall over summer. EC has (as usual) been closer to the mark. That's why I think Monday/Tuesday has some legs.
     
  6. glug1

    glug1 Hard Yards

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    I'm on the northern side of Bendigo and got 21mm (the march monthly average). 3km away the airport got 47mm, reports of 65mm, 80mm in central and southern side of Bendigo. Flash flooding and there were a lot of roads closed.

    Rain here has been about average sine June 09 now we are about. [​IMG]
     
    #56 glug1, Mar 6, 2010
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  7. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    all that cloud south east of tas is about to get sucked into the vortex
     
  8. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I got a feeling about today/tonight unfortunately for me [​IMG] But good for rain.
     
    #58 Vermillion, Mar 6, 2010
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS and BOM still think it will be mighty wet for the next 4 days.
    It's been a fine, warm start to the day in Melbourne though.
     
  10. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    [​IMG]

    Has been changed significantly!!

    I am now looking at 75 to 100mm over the weekend!!

    That is a good dump of rain even if we only got 50mm i would be happy!
     
    #60 Alfred14, Mar 6, 2010
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  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    For the love of crap not tomorrow dammit! Weather always ruins stuff when it doesnt need to.

    Some very good storm activity already to the west, and it's only just starting up, good call CC on storms today and tomorrow.
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I don't believe the GFS rainfall figures.
     
  13. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I dont know what to believe at the moment, even BOM dont know wat to believe.

    In the past 24 hours the forecast has gone from rain and thunderstorms to scattered showers to showers increasing to heavy rain.
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Big storms rolling in to the western suburbs.
     
  15. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    geez theres some intense rainfall in those storms on the Melb. radar! [​IMG]
     
    #65 cin, Mar 6, 2010
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  16. ahronshapiro

    ahronshapiro Hard Yards

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    Getting hairy in St Kilda
    20mm rain in a half hour.
    Large hail and it lasted at least 5 minutes straight.
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Massive hailstones Canterbury!
     
  18. Lukekrause

    Lukekrause First Runs

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    clouds and thunder rolling in- cranbourne
     
  19. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Flemington Races abandoned after an intense storm hit the place - BIG HAIL, people were shielding themselves with plastic outdoor chairs!!!
     
  20. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG] [​IMG] left my farkin car in the driveway cos the garage is still half full of boxes. Hope it's not full of dings when I get home [​IMG]

    Nothing much down Surf Coast - beautiful morning on the beach, a few showers around 2-3.00 and just started lightly again

    MIL just called to say it was the most frightening storm she's ever seen.
     
    #70 luvthabumps, Mar 6, 2010
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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, the hail was golf ball size here in Canterbury. I'm sure I saw one closer to a grapefruit size too
     
  22. spigkaht

    spigkaht First Runs

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    There have been reports of hail up to 10cm in Melbourne. 10cm!

    Some moderate showers and lightning in Mornington, nothing spectacular though.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'd believe it. We have half a dozen in the freezer around 5cm.
     
    #73 Claude Cat, Mar 6, 2010
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  24. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    How do i see the EC predictions??
     
    #74 Alfred14, Mar 6, 2010
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  25. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    i was down on the yarra for moomba ski competition this arvo when it hit. Absolutely crazy. Never seen a storm like it. Got some awesome video of golf ball hail smashing into the river. Will post it when i get home. Simply unreal.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC
     
    #76 Claude Cat, Mar 7, 2010
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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    Looks like a wet day in Melbourne today.
    GFS still confident of big falls
    [​IMG]

    BOM for today:
    [​IMG]
     
    #77 Claude Cat, Mar 7, 2010
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  28. Mr Bean

    Mr Bean One of Us

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    Bummer, was looking forward to a bike ride today [​IMG]

    Well, can't complain. (At St Andrews) we had 37mm yesterday (until midnight) and 2mm since. The tanks have been overflowing and the Diamond Creek is bubbling along like a river. Such a change, although, speaking to the older folk around her, this is what it used to be like in the 50's and 60's.
     
    #78 Mr Bean, Mar 7, 2010
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  29. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Has been [auto-censor] down in Wagga Wagga for the last 2-3 hours. About 60mm at my place so far. Again the BOM gauge shows half that amount. That on top of 30-40mm on friday. It's getting very green out this way.
     
  30. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    [/quote]
    EC [/quote]

    Thanks Claude Cat
     
    #80 Alfred14, Mar 7, 2010
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  31. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    90mm at home (Wagga Wagga) and the BOM gauge has finally caught up and is also reading 90mm. All the local drains and creeks are overflowing. Lake Albert actually has some water flowing into it.

    Sun has been out for the last hour but round 3 is about to move in.
     
  32. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    My parents house in Rowville is smashed, trees stripped, windows broken, i only just got back here to help clean up and tarp it up before another bunch of rain this arvo. They were pretty badly hit here, its a warzone in the street.

    Looks like more hectic weather on the way.
     
  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I hope for Melbourne's sake it dies out as it crosses the divide, but im not holding my breath on that.
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Tonight could be interesting. With the extra (unexpected) heat it could really explode. The conditions are even more conducive for severe thunderstorms than yesterday IMHO.
     
  35. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    There's some big storms pushing down into VIC at the moment from NSW!! Could produce a fair bit of rain

    The storm cell just out of Shepparton in North East VIC has had reports of 2cm hail and is building
     
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    CC not what i want to hear, i have 3 busted skylights and numerous windows. Im trying to convince myself it's going to be alright but i know it's not.
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    nasty that's for sure. Not so bad here, but I was sure glad the cars were all undercover and that I cleared the gutters earlier in the day.
    While the conditions are sure favorable for storms, it's not a given that it will happen. We'll get some rain, but it's just a question of how intense it will be.
    GFS Liftex is around -5 to -6 (for melbourne) at 5pm, then it starts to get better.
     
  38. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Goulburn Valley getting hammered now.
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That system bashing Shepparton looks headed our way.
     
  40. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup Shepparton going to be wiped off the map. Heading this way and building, the only hope for Melbourne is for it to weaken over the ranges.
     
  41. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    There is trees down everywhere in shep traffic lights out and roads blocked!!! Not looking good for tonight around the place!
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The next hour or two could be interesting.
     
  43. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    My gutters aren't clean - which means the roof in the kitchen will leak [​IMG]
     
    #93 teckel, Mar 7, 2010
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  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Check out the size of the cell just reaching Seymour!
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Tornado damage reported from Murray Valley Highway. Damage track 1km long and 200m wide.
     
  46. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    That is HUGE!!!!
     
    #96 Alfred14, Mar 7, 2010
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  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you havent checked this mornings sounding from the BOM i suggest you do, ive never seen such a sounding for Melbourne, that's more Darwin style. Very little work required to reach positive buoyancy and once there a heap of potential energy. Crazy stuff.
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh saw that earlier. That's why I said the conditions for storms was even better than yesterday.
     
  49. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Probably a bit late, but where's a good spot in inner Melb to go & watch this?
     
  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah i havent had a chance to check the soundings yet.

    OK im gonna head back down to my place, and out of internet. Hopefully everyone is prepared tonight.

    PS - Did anyone else notice how 'piss my pants excited' the BOM guys have been every time they cross to them on the news? They're oh yeah what a shame lots of damage but OMFG did you see those cells man?! Classic weather nerds.