Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Vermillion, Mar 1, 2010.

  1. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just walked across the road from work and today feels more autumn like, however it doesn't have the brisk SW wind feel to it yet. Soon I hope! [​IMG]
     
    #151 smitty484, Mar 15, 2010
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  2. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    if you look at the current gfs today,the front coming up below perth is a beauty.540 line is up.
    but as always big fat highs pushing it down.
    not much in it weather wise but should get fairly cool by end of weekend.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Just reading in another weather forum that, assuming things continue as they have this week, that Thursday will be the 100th day in a row with a maxiumum of over 20C for Melbourne, which is a record by some weeks.
    So while we've had a mild Summer alround - not too many extremes either way.
     
  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's been pretty average since spring actually.
     
  5. Hobber

    Hobber A Local

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    Car windows had condensation on them this morning on the Lower North Shore...
     
  6. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    Car heater on very low first up in Western Sydney [​IMG]
    lots of dew on windscreen [​IMG]
    Sleep with doona on by morning [​IMG]
    Electricity bills lowering [​IMG]
     
    #156 keefy, Mar 17, 2010
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  7. PolePlant

    PolePlant Guest

    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    From a photography point of view, Autumn colors are out.
    2 day ago at sun down the light (a wide graduation through red spectrum) was notably present.
    That sort of light if you cant take a warm shot with popping colors your camera is broken.
     
    #157 PolePlant, Mar 17, 2010
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  8. tbnext

    tbnext One of Us

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    and a reasonable chance that FNQ is going to get slammed by a cyclone by around sunday
     
  9. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    More than reasonable judging by the latest ECMWF predictions.
     
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Brisbane to get some more rain from it too.
     
  11. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    current GFS showing heavy rain making it into central QLD. Not far enough south to affect the flooded regions though. Worth keeping an eye on though.
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    QLD does look sure wet on GFS.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #162 Claude Cat, Mar 18, 2010
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  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Melbourne looks like it will get around 5-10mm over the weekend in to Monday according to GFS. BOM going for less 1-5mm
     
  14. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Looks like a cold front pattern to me. They can often be underestimated in the summer months like a particular case in January this year.
     
  15. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Trying hard to rain this morning, not much luck.
     
  16. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    So muggy last night in Melb. Driving home from a meeting at 11.00pm and the car temp still said 27C. Still 24C now and feels like rain is on the way.
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    A few showers through St Kilda. Enough to make it really muggy.

    All models going for less than 5mm now.
     
  18. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    Today at work people are continuing to argue about the forecasted storm track path for Cyclone Ului. They are arguing about the ensemble prediction methods, and how they work versus a deterministic forecast.

    Below is an email from one of the smartest people I've ever met (who now works at CSIRO CMAR but before that he worked at the BOM on forecast model development).

    Did you get all of that?
     
    #168 Rush, Mar 19, 2010
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  19. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    Brief shower in Clayton this morning. Was hot and humid much of the day there.

    And to answer PG's question, I did not get one word of it. [​IMG]
     
    #169 ice_man, Mar 19, 2010
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  20. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking like some good downpours due here (Brisbane) next week. The dams are going to overflow....hopefully not too much flood damage in low lying areas.
     
  21. PolePlant

    PolePlant Guest

    With recent wet up there and heading to NSW it should help fill dams more.

    The last lot in Vic just soaked the ground, one more like that will add to the levels significantly.
     
  22. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    It's interesting isn't it? To most people..that email is science fiction. If you put it next to a Star Trek script they wouldn't tell the difference.

    And yet still some people maintain that physicists and mathematicians who are involved in weather and climate aren't 'smart' because they didn't study medicine or law.

    It also shows how some people's brain functions just exist at a higher level. How they can use mathematics and very abstract ideas to develop further understanding of the natural world.

    I'm an engineer and I'm pretty good at what I do...but these guys are just on another planet.
     
    #172 Rush, Mar 20, 2010
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  23. ben4386

    ben4386 Hard Yards

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    ice man r u studying at monash this year?
     
  24. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    29th the best chance for decent rain, next weekend. Looks like a fairly strong front at this stage, lets see how it goes with the following updates.
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yes, both EC and GFS show something coming through on the 28th.

    [​IMG]

    GFS showing around 10mm across Victoria. EC looks good on the 28th (above) but it disappears completely on the 29th, so I think it's still marginal.
     
    #175 Claude Cat, Mar 22, 2010
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  26. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    this could end up interesting if it falls the right way.
    need a front to surge up from the south and inject some cold air into it. [​IMG]
    also need the high to stall a little
     
    #176 doogasnow, Mar 22, 2010
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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC and GFS still look ok for Sunday through Monday. GFS going for between 10 and 25 mm for most of Victoria. BOM a little more conservative, 5-10mm.
    EC also suggesting another system on Wednesday.
     
  28. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah looks alright, being pushed further back though, so im still skeptical.
     
  29. Matt.D

    Matt.D Hard Yards

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    I don't think we'll get much out of it 5mm tops at this stage looks to be downgrading. We really need more consistent rains dug the ground yesterday ( Wandin East ) and the 80mm that fell on our property during the Labour day weekend system didn't go too far down the deep red soil was dry after about 10 inches so no wonder the Dams won't fill.
     
  30. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gee you're doing better than me, i have black clay on black clay, the water just sits on top at the moment. Cant wait to build the garden properly.
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC, GFS still holding firm for a system coming through on Sunday.
    GFS total rainfall is still higher than BOM, although BOM have increased estimates this morning.
    [​IMG]
    BOM:
    [​IMG]
     
    #181 Claude Cat, Mar 24, 2010
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  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Still looking ok on this afternoons GFS run, and now showing on the BOM 4 day chart (low coming throung late Sunday).
    GFS LI also suggests chance of a storm on Saturday afternoon, but perhaps missing Melbourne.
     
  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS backed off a little bit this morning, and pushed the change further back.
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS looks very much like EC now. I'm still thinking 5-10mm Sunday/Monday.
    Love the fog this morning.
    Interesting to see the "demonstration" F1s roaring around the park in the haze too!
     
  35. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    No fog at work then it rolled in, there was a little bit of wind around so i was suprised the fog stayed for as long as it did.
     
  36. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    I'll call 5mm at least over southern Vic. Pushing over 10mm in South Gippsland and eastern Melbourne.
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Afternoon GFS downgrades further. 5mm tops.
     
  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    About the same this morning too.
     
  39. SNOW_dj

    SNOW_dj Hard Yards

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    Someone please explain this mid twenty's warm weather in Melbourne and why it's not getting any colder any time soon? I'm sick of this warmness.

    On a sort of related note, when do the leaves usually change colour around Melbourne?
     
  40. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's March. It can be warm. The mean maximum temperature in Melbourne in March is 23.9 degrees, so it sounds normal to me.
     
    #190 Sandy, Mar 27, 2010
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  41. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Move to antarctica.
     
  42. Matt.D

    Matt.D Hard Yards

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    March highest average maximum 27.8 in 1934 (Melbourne regional office)
    March lowest average maximum 20.1 in 1904
    Long term average 23.9
    Last 10
    2010 - 26.6 so far
    2009 - 24.3
    2008 - 27.1
    2007 - 25.8
    2006 - 26.1
    2005 - 23.9
    2004 - 23.8
    2003 - 24.3
    2002 - 24.3
    2001 - 24.3
    2000 - 26.3
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    BOM seems to have upgraded the moisture content for this one.
    [​IMG]
    GFS
    [​IMG]

    Plenty of wind too.
     
    #193 Claude Cat, Mar 28, 2010
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  44. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks alright for some light rain at the moment, a good band coming through now.
     
  45. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    its amazing how close that spread of march temps are
     
  46. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    sorry i originally thought the numbers were rainfall
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Models pick this one about right. 10mm for most of the metro area.
    I'm up a Bright and it poured most of the night. We must have got 20mm+
    It looks to be slowly clearing now.
    Lets look at the charts for the next system ...
     
  48. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good outcome IMO, more than most people were predicting and overall slightly more than the models were predicting. This gives us a fairly wet March, a good sign IMO to the coming winter.
     
  49. glug1

    glug1 Hard Yards

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    I had 18mm here in Bendigo and the airport got 21mm.
     
  50. Matt.D

    Matt.D Hard Yards

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    20mm here in Wandin East....100mm for the month wettest March in a while, although when you dig down you'd hardly think so. Temperatures concern me moving into April as the next 6 of 7 days are all predicted 25 degrees or above. April average 20.3. The record of over 20 degree maximums is still rolling on, the Summer as a whole has completely lacked cold fronts of any reasonable strength (majority of rain coming from the north and north west ) and normally by now we are experiencing cooler clear crisp nights with heavy dews through the paddocks none of this is evident as yet it seems. Seasonal change is yet to kick in here.