Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Vermillion, Mar 1, 2010.

  1. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Yeah, the weather patterns still appear very summer-like. But we're getting the rain, is the main thing.

    Things have to cool off at some stage. I'm guessing April will be a real turn around.
     
  2. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still another hot spell of 30+ in it before we shift to winter.
     
  3. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah. Too late for that I reckon. Cut-offs and inland troughs look to predominate over next few weeks. Mild and mildly wet I reckon. No proper cold fronts for a couple of weeks yet...
     
    #203 The Plowking, Apr 1, 2010
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  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Welcome back champ and congratulations! Bout time you checked in here [​IMG]

    Anyway, back on topic i see some rain for VIC next wednesday around the 7th at the moment, however it has been chopping and changing lately.

    I dunno about the lack of hotter days, april can throw up some curve balls but you're right i guess in the fact that we havent really had many frontal passages this autumn, not that im complaining.
     
    #204 Vermillion, Apr 1, 2010
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  5. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    We do sometimes get a 30+ day or two in April... but they're usually right at the start (more March like conditions). We should start getting some decent fronts once those highs start to move... they haven't really budged much from their summer pattern, as I previously mentioned. However, for now I'm not worried as long as the tanks have water in them [​IMG]
     
    #205 ice_man, Apr 1, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  6. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    cut offs giving us 20-30mm once a week are fine by me.
     
  7. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Cut offs giving us 20-30cm once a week from mid May are fine by me.
     
  8. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    In agreeance then, we only need the weather to co-operate.
     
  9. 24

    24 Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]
     
    #209 24, Apr 2, 2010
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  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC seems to show activity over Victoria next week, Wednesday and the weekend.
    Probably not huge totals, but enough to make things a little damp.
     
  11. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    Starting to get colder in Melbourne.

    Heating in the house has been turning on now at night [​IMG]

    The Air Con/Heating is set to 21 degrees and AUTO. So it does whatever is needed to keep the house at 21.

    Nice to wake up and have the heating going again!

    Winter is on the way


    <span style='font-size: 8pt'>IMO</span>
     
    #211 skiflat, Apr 3, 2010
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  12. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Leaves are turning in Gippsland [​IMG]
     
    #212 ice_man, Apr 3, 2010
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  13. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    very cool and gloomy in gippsland this morning.
    nearly looks and feels like winter.
    wilsons prom & yarram both had 25mm of rain overnight
     
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit of wet weather forecast for next week and into the weekend, with some wind too.
     
  15. Matt.D

    Matt.D Hard Yards

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    Looking good for showery weather on and off next week I just hope the temps don't turn out to be warm as predicted and this run of over 20 degree maximums is broken soon.
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    EC and GFS are showing good totals for the next 7 / 8 days. BOM also agrees.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #216 Claude Cat, Apr 4, 2010
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  17. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    be very nice if those totals come off [​IMG]
    cant seem to shake the large strong high's at this stage
     
    #217 doogasnow, Apr 4, 2010
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  18. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    That would be good CC.
     
  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Good bubble breaking free around the the 14th.
    The vibe is strong with this one. The High is in a good spot.
    Me thinks it will be wet, windy and maybe a wee bit white.
     
  20. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    yes i agree donza,looks this system could potentially be the first half decent cold outbreak heading into winter.
    it all shapes up well at this early stage
     
  21. Matt.D

    Matt.D Hard Yards

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    The 13th to the 15th of April looks interesting at this stage, long way out but if it stays as projected we could be in for some snow above 1500m.
     
  22. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    damnation...beat me to it...nice little pool of cold air getting dragged up with that intense progd low sitting over Tassie
    Snow to what ?16/1700m? overnight Tuesday and blardy cold rain below that.
    IMO
     
    #222 MisterMxyzptlk, Apr 5, 2010
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  23. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    the next ten days should be very interesting?
    charts all over the shop.
    potential early next week for a half decent cool outbreak.
     
  24. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Wet, to say the very least. GFS just keeps on getting better and better.

    Might be a bit of snow up high early next week. Very high at this stage, 1800 metres or thereabouts. I'm thinking it will drop though.
     
  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good for rain until then.
     
  26. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    the less snow until the season starts the better, i'll take the rain thanks

    just like a man has so many heartbeats and then he dies, speaks so many words and then he dies.....weeeeeell i reckon each year we only get so much snow......
     
  27. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I used to think that, but then i learnt about places like Niseko. Now im greedy, i want more more more!

    Rain is fine until the last weekend in May, then it should be clear and cold for a week then snow for the next 8 weeks.
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS is showing 75 to 100mm for around Melbourne for the forecast period. BOM is a much more reasonable 15 to 20mm; I think I'll back the BOM on this one.
     
  29. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    GFS has it spread more though... BoM has shown a nasty hole (drops to about 5mm) over Gippsland. Now's one time we don't want to miss out.
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That sounds like wishful thinking?
     
  31. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Renmark looks like it's copping a pasting.
     
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]
    I like the position of the trough preceeding , and the maybe maybe cutoff chance.
    looks damn ok on the 168 gfs this arvo
     
    #232 Donza, Apr 6, 2010
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  33. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    How is the Vibe ?
     
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Not bad...not bad..it will give the seasons a good shake... kinda like an orca on a dolphin
     
    #234 Donza, Apr 6, 2010
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  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yet nothing on EC for same date?
     
    #235 Claude Cat, Apr 6, 2010
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  36. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    yeah gippsland going to as usual do the worst out of this nw system [​IMG]
    be lucky to get 5mm at best.
    i think next week is still going to shape nice
     
    #236 doogasnow, Apr 6, 2010
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Radar is showing the rain is not far of from Melbourne. Looks like some useful falls,
     
  38. Mr Bean

    Mr Bean One of Us

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    Looks like it'll skirt the western parts of Melbourne. We just had a light burst in St Andrews, but not enough to record in the electronic gauge. Hopefully in the next half hour it'll be better.
     
  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah strange....sometimes EC gets a wee bit lost in may april etc..IMO
    as much as GFS gets excited about stuff like ECL's and so forth.
     
    #239 Donza, Apr 6, 2010
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  40. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    has pretty much rained non stop for last 3 hours here in shepparton. half a foot of water down the main street. probably had around 10mm if not more..
     
  41. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Yeah anything from the south or SW (as next week is hinting at) does some good for Gippsland... depending on where you are. SW cold snaps are especially deceiving. On the other hand, something NW like this lot (from experience) tails off after Warragul, and gets really patchy past about Traralgon.

    Where are you doogasnow?
     
    #241 ice_man, Apr 6, 2010
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  42. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    And in Benalla we have had 0.3mm!!! [​IMG]
     
    #242 Alfred14, Apr 6, 2010
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  43. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    the AWS which is around 300m from my house says 13mm.. i think its slow to update so im saying 15+ so far.
     
  44. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks like you were spot on h2o 15mm exactly at 10:30!! [​IMG]
     
    #244 Alfred14, Apr 6, 2010
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  45. glug1

    glug1 Hard Yards

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    32.5mm overnight here in Bendigo, April average is 26mm. That's 210mm for the year so far, average to the end of April is 105mm.

    Also to note, average or better rain since June last year. Central Vic paddocks are greening up nicely (usually barren and still waiting for autumn break), tanks and dams are full so winter run off will go into the catchments.
     
  46. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good news glug. We got 15mm out here in good 'ol cranny east. Not bad especially considering im building the garden at the moment.

    Looks like a couple of good setups in the next 168 hours.
     
  47. Mr Bean

    Mr Bean One of Us

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    Overnight we only had 4mm at St Andrews. The rain shadow strikes again. I think we miss out in such situations because its coming from the north and the Kinglake mass probably forces some of it to drop before we get it.
     
  48. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup being on the southern side of the range does that unfortunately. On the plus you can get more out of a S/SW system.
     
  49. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    Didn't expect the 9mm which fell in our gauge overnight... I thought we would have been lucky to get 5mm.

    11mm fell at Latrobe Valley Airport, appears to be the highest in Gippsland. Most falls elsewhere in the region were between 5 and 8mm.
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC now looking interesting for the 13-16th April, although GFS is less so today.