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Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Vermillion, Mar 1, 2010.

  1. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah..I looked at that this morning after you mentioned it last night.
    Me thinks the vibe will bring all the models into alignment.
     
    #251 Donza, Apr 7, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  2. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Good to see Winter Like patterns starting to appear in the models. GFS GASP EC suggesting some action around 11th although doubt it will be cold enough for snow. Like Claude mentioned, 13th onwards looks interesting and could be a possibility aswell.

    The "ground needs cooling" [​IMG]
     
    #252 Stratus, Apr 7, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'm a fatalist in terms of snow in April. It seems for the last few years we've had April dumps only to have dud starts to the seasons. Save the snow for when the lifts are open (or just before [​IMG] ). Otherwise rain will do me fine.
     
    #253 Claude Cat, Apr 7, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS afternoon run looks very good for the 14th April.
    But EC less interested until a ripper of a low on the 16th - if that comes of we certainly will have some snow ...
     
  5. Matt.D

    Matt.D Hard Yards

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    April snow can sometimes be a bad omen in my opinion, but then again our snow seasons are so variable anything can happen..I have photos of snow at Donna Buang in mid April from 3 or 4 years ago .GFS run looks good as CC has mentioned above if that comes off ill still stand by my call of some snow falling down to 1500m I very much doubt any will settle as the ground is way too warm. Good to see weather patterns to starting shift away from Summer in the forecast. 5mm out here at Wandin from last night less than expected.
     
  6. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    iceman:im in newborough.
    we ended up with 10mm last night,nice little drop indeed [​IMG]
    sunday is lookin good for baw baw for a dusting??
    but gfs 168+ is a hum dinga!!!!!


    were are u iceman?
     
    #256 doogasnow, Apr 7, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Showers blowing up south of melbourne, im getting smashed right now.
     
  8. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Doogasnow, I'm originally from near Yinnar, but I'm now at uni in Melbourne. I often return home on the weekends, and on my mid semester break (which is now [​IMG] )

    Just got back from Traralgon, where everything was dry. Came home to find an extra 8mm in the gauge. By no means expected, but something we definitely needed...
     
    #258 ice_man, Apr 7, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Storm popped up out of nowhere, i was thinking you'd be getting smashed.
     
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh, front on the 14th is gone on gfs now, it'll be back the current setup is ridiculous.
     
  11. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    A 168-hour forecast on a global model is fairly meaningless. Global models exist primarily to provide boundary conditions for regional models. No-one tries to use numerical output from a global model to forecast one week in advance.

    Forecasting accuracy for a regional model is now quite good for 3-4 days (in terms of major synoptic features). Of course you will still miss small-scale convective events, and your timing of cool changes or changes in local cloud cover can be off.

    Let's not forget weather events that are created by local topography that aren't resolved by the model.

    I think I'll be posting the above quite regularly over the next few months every time someone gets excited about the next 'big dump' forecast at +168 hours.
     
  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You go mr policeman. No discussion about anything further out than +72 hours from now on.
     
  13. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    If only......

    We should play 168-hour forecasting bingo during the ski season.
     
  14. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Really squally showers passing through Jindabyne at the moment blowing up from the south has that late Autumn feel too it
     
  15. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You dont have the balls to say winter feel do you? [​IMG]
     
    #265 Vermillion, Apr 8, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  16. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    No, I chose late Autumn quite carefully [​IMG]
     
    #266 loweee, Apr 8, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    #267 Donza, Apr 8, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Sunday continues to look interesting on this afternoon's EC run, it wouldn't surprise to see a few snow flakes at Baw Baw or in the Tasmanian highlands.
    And Wednesday / Thursday have potential to be interesting too.
     
  19. TC

    TC Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    frog said it wont snow this year
     
  20. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    another 20mm of rain in gippsland overnight into today.:)
    baw baw is a very strong chance for snow sunday into monday by looking at gfs.
    next week we could see anything happen?as the charts showing alot of movement.
    def going to be alot colder.
    max:18 on sunday and only 16 on mon [​IMG]
     
    #270 doogasnow, Apr 8, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  21. TC

    TC Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    but frog said it wont snow
     
  22. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    When did he say that!!?? [​IMG]
     
    #272 Alfred14, Apr 8, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  23. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    IMO

    The IMO's are going to have to be used shortly

    IMO

    Sandy [​IMG]
     
    #273 skiflat, Apr 8, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  24. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    The NSW BOM are feeling the vibe!

    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN10103.html

    Isolated showers associated with this front will turn to light snow showers in the cold stream following the front. These snow showers may settle to 1700 metres for a brief period early in the new week.

    Autumn such a beautiful time of year!
     
    #274 skiflat, Apr 8, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  25. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    IMO i agree with skidown.. The dark one is coming...
     
  26. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    If that front south of WA keeps tracking NE, it's gonna be happy (cold) days soon!!!
     
  27. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Im not feeling it, sorry guys.
     
  28. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    im with verm.. if we get around 10mm across the state then its a win.
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Sunday still looks ok. Certainly cooler than we've had for a while. Not huge quantities of precipitation though.

    Next week seems to be ho- hum, cool, but not much there now.
     
  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    When did you have the Vibe?

    If we want to take the calculus and algorithumic approach to weather i'd say the models are all phucked up beyond 72 hours.
    IMO the situation will look like something like the 168hr prog from the other day that PG wrote off so severely. However me thinks it will be pushed back a wee bit. Maybe the 16th or so.
     
    #280 Donza, Apr 9, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Nice rain band approaching Melbourne from the west. May be 5 to 10mm out of this for Friday evening. Could be wet at the footy.
     
  32. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    COME ON SAINTERS!!

    IMO.
     
  33. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    yeah mid next week has just vanished???
    [​IMG]
    but sunday/monday i think are looking the goods now [​IMG]
    def going to get cold and snowy above about 1500mtr
    think baw baw will see some out of this.
    540 line just touching vic
     
    #283 doogasnow, Apr 9, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  34. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Rain and possibily a burst of snow for Buller or Baw Baw is all I can see. No prolonged SW fetch with the trailing high moving through a little quickly.

    After the 16th looks very interesting though.
     
  35. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    3 drops in Melbourne tonight, it was never going to be anything big.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Rain kind of just disappeared on the western fringe. Enough to get me slightly damp as I rode home.
     
  37. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    i think 5cm a chance for baw baw??? [​IMG]
    could be 10mm in it from later sunday through to monday.
    gippsland should do well with the sw fetch.

    17deg sunday & 16 monday
     
    #287 doogasnow, Apr 9, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    RE front coming on the 17-18th, i think there is too much tropical moisture being progged to be sucked in at the moment to be of any use snow-wise, but good rain wise. We'll see how it progresses, i always get nervous when fronts get pushed back, usually nothing comes of it.
     
  39. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    yeah i agree.dont think much is going to happen on these dates.but still a long way out
    so u never know? [​IMG]

    get through a snowy sunday/monday first [​IMG]

    think this is def a turning point for the better towards winter
     
    #289 doogasnow, Apr 9, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  40. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Snow in April is not necesarily a good thing, eg:2006. 27 in Sydney tomorrow so time for the beach.

    The weather to watch looks to be central Australia again with 50 - 100mm predicted tomorrow into Sunday for the Alice. Some great falls in central SA over the last few days with this trough. Would be good to see some more rain for the agricultrual areas before winter.

    Some very different weather patterns over this summer with allot more moisture than the last few years. Hopefully this converts into a good ski season.
     
  41. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Let it rain all it likes in April. Always a good thing. Let the snow come in late May, just before the season starts [​IMG]

    The way we have been getting reasonably consistent rain for some time heightens the spirits. If it keeps being consistent, we can hope it will mean lots of snow once winter fully hits.
     
    #291 ice_man, Apr 9, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  42. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    its funny all the superstitions about early cold in april meaning no snow, more snow etc etc.

    Just to show how wack it is.
    The coldest april easter I have noted is the year 2000. Cold SW for days, then a few blocking highs then around the 20th of may, boom.


    The most snowfall i've seen in april was 1995 (OK season) then 2006 (well enough said)...and frig me Melbs was cold that weekend.I was down for a wedding, around anzac day.. It was funny, all the melbournites were talking about being a long cold winter.
     
  43. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    Bom forecasting 'below average' temperatures for april-june quater in SE...
    May and June would want to be cold then cos after sunday/mondays cold air I'm seeing not much more than (warm and wet) troughs for the week after...
    I do enjoy this rain atm tho.

    "In contrast, there is a 60 to 75% chance of cooler than normal nights averaged over the coming three months in Victoria, far southern NSW, SA agricultural areas and northern Tasmania. This means that below normal temperatures would be expected to occur in around six or seven years for every ten that ocean patterns are similar to the present"
    more...
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/temp.seaus.shtml
     
    #293 The Plowking, Apr 10, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  44. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    By the way I reckon we should keep some sort of winter weather banter thread for the winter.
    Have system specific threads for predictions and obs as per normal but a less formal one like this without heavy moderation.
    That Predictions and Obs NEED this moderation I completely agree...
     
  45. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    2004 had two or three good early falls. From memory around 30cm on ANZAC weekend and another 30cm odd the following weekend. Then it went off from second weekend of the official ski season.
     
    #295 Snow Blowey, Apr 10, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  46. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    I agree, Plowking. I think it's getting to the stage where we do need seperate threads for each weather system. Having a collective thread for all weather banter and rain systems over warmer months is OK as we are only really looking for rain, whereas now it's getting to the stage where snow bearing systems are becoming more frequent and everyone gets all excited. (Who doesn't, though? [​IMG] )
     
    #296 ice_man, Apr 10, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  47. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ussually happens organically around now so Iceman, start her up!
    Lets keep an informal banter one too tho...
     
    #297 The Plowking, Apr 10, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  48. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    yeah agree.
    start a thread for sun/mon ice? [​IMG]
    looking like an interesting system.

    might take a run up to baw baw sunday night [​IMG]
    think theres a chance she could come down lower than the forecast 1500mtr
     
    #298 doogasnow, Apr 10, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  49. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Reckon it will be rain snow then mist/rain at Baw Baw. Timing will be everything for snow seeing
     
    #299 The Plowking, Apr 10, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  50. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Its the kind of system where I would expect rain tending to bursts of snow for a few minutes. I couldn't see it settling, still looking like it will be a bit too warm.
     
    #300 Stratus, Apr 10, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013