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Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Vermillion, Mar 1, 2010.

  1. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Off you go then, ive got this one and ice_man had the last one, have a banter thread to your name [​IMG]
     
    #301 Vermillion, Apr 10, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  2. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Im still not convinced of the system due next weekend.
     
  3. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    wz have now forecast the snow level to 1400mtr starting tommoz arvo [​IMG]
    also issued sheep graze & severe weather warning for wind.
    going to get cold and wild from later tommoz,overnight and first half of monday

    hopefully temps drop enough to see some nice snow flurries??
     
    #303 doogasnow, Apr 10, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Afternoon GFS shows the 540 line further north. Not a lot of precipation though.
    But EC and GFS have now given up on anything else of interest for the next 7 or 8 days,
     
  5. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Tassie highlands should see a short sharp cold change late tommorrow with snow falling above 1200m .. Its been a long warm summer down here so bring on the first good stuff for the year i say .!
     
  6. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    here she comes.already dropped to around 10-11 degrees around melbourne.
    black as a dogs guts here in gippsland.
    plenty of cold air behind the front
     
  7. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    love it - feels like winter in Melbourne [​IMG]
     
    #307 luvthabumps, Apr 11, 2010
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  8. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    down to 11.5 now.rain coming in.
    feels very icy out there.
    wont be long before it hits baw baw and the flakes start falling [​IMG]
     
    #308 doogasnow, Apr 11, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. Mr Bean

    Mr Bean One of Us

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    At St Andrews, 4mm of rain in about 15min. The temp dropped from 14 to 12.5 in the past hour. Just put the fire on. Except for my bike ride planned for this morning, this is beautiful [​IMG]
     
    #309 Mr Bean, Apr 11, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  10. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    frontal band now through,now for the real stuff behind it [​IMG]
    looks like a fairly cold pool of air behind the front.
    temps pretty low out in west of state,single figures in some areas along the coast
     
    #310 doogasnow, Apr 11, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  11. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG] Yup. Can just picture myself sitting on the computer at 23.59, 31st May ready to hit post to join that club!
     
    #311 The Plowking, Apr 11, 2010
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  12. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    1.2deg on baw baw at 9am
    must be close to flakes up there now [​IMG]
     
    #312 doogasnow, Apr 11, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  13. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Sat loop juicy [​IMG] System tracking nicely, looks like some nice coldness in it too from Mt William BOM obs, and revised (down) snowlevels for the Snowys this weekend.

    Cams should be encouraging by this arvo [​IMG]
     
    #313 woggybot, Apr 11, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  14. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    yeah plenty of cold air to come,hopefully it spins up over the mainland.
    think there's a chance this could be a little colder than forecast looking at that pool of intense cold air.
    baw baw down to 0.6 [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #314 doogasnow, Apr 11, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  15. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Negative at Baw Baw now.

    Squally isolated showers in Wagga since mid-morning.
     
  16. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    baw baw been fluctuating between -0.1 & -0.5 now for the last three ours. [​IMG]
    just need plenty of precip now
     
    #316 doogasnow, Apr 11, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  17. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Band heading Wab Wabs way now. Should be a dusting.
     
  18. Scarecrow86

    Scarecrow86 Hard Yards

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    Dusting at Buller.


    [​IMG]
     
    #318 Scarecrow86, Apr 11, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  19. Tilt

    Tilt First Runs

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    Snowing: Thredbo Basin cam.
     
  20. Hobber

    Hobber A Local

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    "This is the earliest snowfall since the last early snowfall, and a great start to what is sure to be a bumper season in 2010" said Nophar Kingidea, spokesman for Corrin Forest ski resort.
     
  21. wangster

    wangster A Local

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    I was up at Perisher about an hour ago... maybe a little more... and it was 3c and absolutely pouring rain. There was some sago/hail/almost snow falling up at Charlottes but nothing major.

    Judging by that and the looks of the Basin cam right now I think the snow line must be between 1800m and 1900m
     
  22. wangster

    wangster A Local

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    The most accumulation I spotted at Charlottes

    [​IMG]
     
    #322 wangster, Apr 11, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  23. wangster

    wangster A Local

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    Scratch that snow level comment. Judging by the Supertrail cam it's snowing down to 1500m or so. Dang nab it, I went up there way too early!
     
  24. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    So I did drive passed you wang. Yeah I think an hour or 2 too early.
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    well the 100 odd days of 20+ for Melbourne broken, only 18.3 today.
     
  26. PolePlant

    PolePlant Guest

    Look at the rest of the suburban stations and you get around 16 max average.
     
    #326 PolePlant, Apr 11, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  27. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep Moorabin works for me
     
    #327 The Plowking, Apr 11, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  28. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    fair amount of rain now pushing up over gippsland.
    baw baw should be white by the morning if it hits [​IMG]
     
    #328 doogasnow, Apr 11, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  29. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mt William 2.8 now.
    Cold dry air.
    Fair bit of west still in the wind so a few more mini squalls yet.
     
  30. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    and baw baw back up to 1.
    Over...
     
    #330 The Plowking, Apr 12, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  31. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Die down wind i wanna go out on the bay tomorrow!

    Looks good though, nice to see it rain then the ashpalt and concrete stay wet for hours afterwards, it means winter is coming.

    Looks fairly stable for the next 4-5 days though.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Moisture levels were pretty low. 0.6mm for Melbourne for the 24 hour period. Nothing much of interest on the EC & GFS models for the next 8 or so days.
     
  33. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    P!ssed down regularly on the Mornington Peninsula today
     
  34. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    I read that Victoria has had its wettest start to the year since 1974. Great for most of the farmers and hopefully a start to the end the drought. I think that the flooding in QLD was also compared to the rains they had in 1974.

    Would be good if this correlated into as season like 1974 with a peak of 287cm.
     
  35. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can only be good signs cant it? I still believe that snow in April at the beginning on May is not a good sign though, but dustings are ok.
     
  36. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

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    I have a superstitious theory I call the "snow quota theory". The snow quota theory assumes there is a predetermined finite amount of snow Australia will receive each season. If a large amount of snow falls in early autumn and melts away that part of the quota has been used up, which results in a lower snowpack for the rest of the season.
     
  37. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    I agree Verm and I think that it is good having these fronts hitting WA at this time of the year with a blocking high over the SE. Would rather see these patterns now rather than the middle of winter.
    I am more confident in a good season this year than the last few.
     
  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah outlooker i am too, but i cant help but think that is only because we're sitting on above or average rainfall across all of VIC. It's easy to think it will continue to rain, if we were bone dry people would be predicting a dry winter too and it would be more believable. I hope im wrong and it continues, those highs still have a long way north to go for us to consistently think about snowfalls. Like i said before i hope this isnt a repeat of 2005 when 1-2C made all the difference, but in the wrong direction. 1-2C cooler through all those fronts in 2005 would have given buller 1.5m+ depth for much of season, however each time a front came through and dropped 30-50cms it was followed by a front that rained it all out and we had to start again from zero. That's my worry at the moment.
     
  39. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    My gut feeling. Flip side is Eildon got up over 60% that year-although it would have got their eventually if it had of been a few degs cooler. Blocking pattern looks set to establish for a week 1/2 or so now...
     
    #339 The Plowking, Apr 14, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Both EC and GFS pointing to some rain around 23rd and 24th April - but still 168 hours out, plenty can change.
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Afternoon runs (EC, GFS) make the Anzac day weekend look quite interesting. At this stage not cold enough for snow, but some moisture that's for sure.
     
  42. Adamski

    Adamski Hard Yards

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    Technically the autumnal equinox was on the 20th of March so the days of that month preceding that day were the last 20 days of summer, not the first 20 of autumn.

    Just an observation.
     
  43. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    The official Australian autumn is the Meteorological "autumn" is defined as 1 March – 31 May
    You are talking about the Astronomical definition.
     
    #344 Claude Cat, Apr 18, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rain next weekend at this stage, models still not quite sure though.
     
  46. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Definitey been noticably cooler here in Brisbane for the past week or so. Playing golf from sat lunch was quite pleasent over the weekend.
     
  47. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    Every single dated snow thread so far posted has been fairy land!
    dont think anything on the near horizon-this/next week anyway.
    Looks like a bit of a surf event on the reefs in vic sunday/monday however (waits for downgrade).
     
  48. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good im not wanting snow now.
     
  49. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll take consistent snow from April through to October [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #349 smitty484, Apr 20, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  50. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    Re: Autumn 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

    Sitting here looking down on Bingin, slight onshore and only about 2-3'
    Have surfed Serangan, Green Balls, and Nusa Dua….Will try to put up few pics later…


    Sorry this was supposed to be in surf thread…..