Autumn 2022 Alpine BBQ Thread

[POW Hungry]

The Inaugural Autumnal Ground Cooler Watchers thread is here.

Keep in the bounds of weather.
Here's how La Nina is tracking from EC's POV

And a very noisy IOD outlook - bit early to 'cast just yet, I'd say. But does allude to neutral territory early-winter.

South Pole Polar Vortex is well on its way to more darker, colder places.

 

[Infinity Dawn]

Coolish morning here in Sydney, fair bit of rain forecast for the coming days. Wouldn’t be surprised if a more mild version of last years floods in Penrith come out of the woods. I’m tipping that the dam will spill

 

[POW Hungry]

Keep in mind this thread is Alpine region.
Current system being covered extensively here:

NSW/ACT - End of Summer Rain and Storms - February 22 - March 9

Big numbers.

www.ski.com.au

& here:

Flood - Upper Low and surface trough SE Qld, NE NSW Heavy rain 22nd Feb - early March 2022

The leeve was breached a little while ago. Not sure of the damage yet. Still raining in the Tweed Valley. Picture was taken this afternoon from my place looking towards Condong. There's 2 or so meters of cane under that water, so I don't think I'll be going anywhere soon. Yeah Doug, spoke too...

www.ski.com.au

 

[SMSkier]

I guess this thread will progressively get busier as the “stoke builds” towards Winter. Finished Summer at home with over 100mm the last 4 days.

Here is how it is around the mountain (NSW) this morning. Started out ok with decent visibility however now very misty with low cloud coming in. Quite the breeze and 12 degrees but wind chill making it feel cooler.

Looking towards the alpine from CP.

Spencer’s Creek.

Perisher.

As I type the visibility has just dropped to about 30 metres. Love this time of year

 

[DidSurfNowSki]

I guess this thread will progressively get busier as the “stoke builds” towards Winter. Finished Summer at home with over 100mm the last 4 days.

Here is how it is around the mountain (NSW) this morning. Started out ok with decent visibility however now very misty with low cloud coming in. Quite the breeze and 12 degrees but wind chill making it feel cooler.

Looking towards the alpine from CP.

Spencer’s Creek.

Perisher.

As I type the visibility has just dropped to about 30 metres. Love this time of year

You left out your best picture !

Be still my beating heart

 

[Olgreg]

My cousin from England does a lot of hiking in the Lakes District and he loves our high country scenes like these.
@SMSkier are they still building the new paths around Charlottes ?

 

[SMSkier]

My cousin from England does a lot of hiking in the Lakes District and he loves our high country scenes like these.
@SMSkier are they still building the new paths around Charlottes ?

Wrong thread for this I suspect… And one of the forumites I think has a thread on this stuff. Some remaining track works might be impacted by todays poor weather? More rain here on the leeward so far with around 12 mm since 9:00 a.m.

 

[dawooduck]

Autumn starts as did Spring and Summer with full creeks, rain and mud.

 

[POW Hungry]

Autumn starts as did Spring and Summer with full creeks, rain and mud.

But phwoar the Monaro looks green and lush.

 

[Infinity Dawn]

Main range is looking very premium, wonder what will happen with all this rain!

 

[DidSurfNowSki]

Main range is looking very premium, wonder what will happen with all this rain!

It will find the lowest point it can ?

 

[robbo mcs]

It will find the lowest point it can ?

Unless snowy hydro diverts it first

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

Heavy rain on Saturday and 70 kph winds on Sunday are being forecasted by EC and BOM for Mt. Stirling this Sat. and Sunday respectively. I just need two clear mild days ( soon ) to do my supply drop up at Mt. No.3 Refuge hut in readiness for winter BC XC ski action and snow camping.

 

[POW Hungry]

Looking like the LR potential for a winter system in the last week of March.

This window looks very interesting mainly because we look to see the eroding Tasman Easterlies. There's a chance of a 2-3 week period of 2-3 autumnal/winter frontal system between last week of March and first week or two of April IMO.

 

[dawooduck]

A lovely day today, sunshine and clouds, very wet underfoot again, quite humid in town.

Got the washing done and the dogs walked

 

[SMSkier]

Well that lovey day^^^ from yesterday has been replaced with wind, thunder and heavy pelting rains….

 

[BlueHue]

Main range is looking very premium, wonder what will happen with all this rain!

Dry and cold, no snow of the snowmakers till August 21st.

 

[SMSkier]

30mm and still raining lightly. Thredbo and Perisher totals not far off that. BOM upgrade for predicted rainfall tomorrow. Currently no wind and not cold but dogs reckon it’s drier and warmer here…..

 

[dawooduck]

Looks a tad wet tomorrow .....

Gonna be interesting given the current state of saturation. Roads are already crumbling all over the region.

 

[Retro2]

9.4C in Stanthorpe this morning.. The volcano effect continues

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

I had Good weather walking at Mt. Stirling yesterday 7/3/22.

 

[dawooduck]

Fingers crossed ...

 

[Ijay]

Looking good too on the other side of the hill, Geehi for me in acouple of days, mostly sunny and warm. NO rain !!

 

[Jacko4650]

Ground Cooler at Thredbo with an overnight of zero. Got down to -0.8. Let it begin.

 

[dawooduck]

Brrrr .... feels like winter on the Jindy North Shore, wood chopping season is here.

 

[SMSkier]

I was

Ground Cooler at Thredbo with an overnight of zero. Got down to -0.8. Let it begin.

Out last night and up along the Alpine Way with friends for dinner. Came out and it was that light misty precipitation and very cool. Sent me looking at BOM and cams…. when I got home.

Still single figures locally with cloud and fog. Fireplace has been on most days in March. Trees definitely in Autumn mode.

Need a bit of sun here. It’s so wet underfoot.

 

[dawooduck]

A light frost and ...

Here comes the sun,
And I say, It's all right

 

[POW Hungry]

Looking like the LR potential for a winter system in the last week of March.

This window looks very interesting mainly because we look to see the eroding Tasman Easterlies. There's a chance of a 2-3 week period of 2-3 autumnal/winter frontal system between last week of March and first week or two of April IMO.

EC Weeklies starting to show some 500mb interest at long range, last week of March:

 

[POW Hungry]

FWIW, GFS staying with snow on the peaks last week of March.

 

[Retro2]

FWIW, GFS staying with snow on the peaks last week of March.

Happy to see that. Will make sense to see early snow.

 

[POW Hungry]

EC's Determs following suit.
Ridgey AF but present but certainly on queue with LR models.

 

[POW Hungry]

EC this morning:

 

[SMSkier]

M

EC this morning:

Mate…what model does The Weather Channel use? They have been showing something around that timeframe for several days - on the 15 day outlook so I understand that’s always a long way out. Has been showing temps slowly lowering at each daily update (Thredbo TS).

Regardless, nice to see a little something on the forecast.

 

[POW Hungry]

M

Mate…what model does The Weather Channel use? They have been showing something around that timeframe for several days - on the 15 day outlook so I understand that’s always a long way out. Has been showing temps slowly lowering at each daily update (Thredbo TS).

Regardless, nice to see a little something on the forecast.

Happy to be corrected, but much like Accuweather, they have their own aggregate model, kinda like BOM's OCF model.
Most of their data would be NWS/NOAA-based, but given the long range, they'd be drawing on a lot of EC's output which is what alerted me to it last week.

 

[FireupWx]

Weather channel mainly use's the NBM V2.3 national blended model.

 

[Nidecker]

And probs a bit warmer with all that moisture??

'We can't relax just yet': BOM indicates La Niña likely to linger until end of autumn

The rain-bearing La Niña looks set to hang around for at least two more months, while another tropical kick in the coming weeks will increase the risk of cyclones.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Retro2]

And probs a bit warmer with all that moisture??

'We can't relax just yet': BOM indicates La Niña likely to linger until end of autumn

The rain-bearing La Niña looks set to hang around for at least two more months, while another tropical kick in the coming weeks will increase the risk of cyclones.

www.abc.net.au

Mild is a concern , a mild one, lest see. We will not know until end of April. AFtre all its a BOM prediction.

 

[lewis]

Mild is a concern , a mild one, lest see. We will not know until end of April. AFtre all its a BOM prediction.

Mild what?

 

[Retro2]

Mild what?

Surely you jest. mild weather as forecast.. Mild is a type of cheese used to predict the future weather in the 1600's

 

[lewis]

Surely you jest. mild weather as forecast.. Mild is a type of cheese used to predict the future weather in the 1600's

Mild temps? Mild something else? I didn't see where the mention of mild was.

 

[Retro2]

Mild temps? Mild something else? I didn't see where the mention of mild was.

Yes this is really funny, moisture, rain , milder than snow.. we don't want that, but they are models. not that useful , never referred to it inn the text.
Nidecker referenced warmer weather, ie milder than colder.

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

I XC skied at Lake Mtn. In April 2021.What are the chances of that happening this year? .

 

[lewis]

Yes this is really funny, moisture, rain , milder than snow.. we don't want that, but they are models. not that useful , never referred to it inn the text.
Nidecker referenced warmer weather, ie milder than colder.

Oh yeah, my bad. Didn't realise there was a comment attached to the article. Although, it was hard to comprehend what you were saying anyway...

 

[Retro2]

Oh yeah, my bad. Didn't realise there was a comment attached to the article. Although, it was hard to comprehend what you were saying anyway...

Yes sorry I speak really simply, some really smart folk struggle

 

[Nidecker]

Yes this is really funny, moisture, rain , milder than snow.. we don't want that, but they are models. not that useful , never referred to it inn the text.
Nidecker referenced warmer weather, ie milder than colder.

I was just making the assumption that moisture traps warmth in the atmosphere, but I'm no meteo guy...

 

[Retro2]

I was just making the assumption that moisture traps warmth in the atmosphere, but I'm no meteo guy...

Just quietly, I reckon we could guess almost as well. lol Pow is the man..

 

[POW Hungry]

NZ with a Long Ranger on EC.

 

[Formally_FS04]

@POW Hungry do you think La Nina will still be in effect during the Southern Hemi winter season or will it die off during '22?

 

[POW Hungry]

@POW Hungry do you think La Nina will still be in effect during the Southern Hemi winter season or will it die off during '22?

Yep, we've got a long way to go yet.
Gotta keep an eye on the Nino3.4 region below, it's still in a relatively strong position for La Nina.

The reemergence of a new (upwelling) Kelvin wave in mid-Feb (see below) suggests we have at least another 4-6 weeks of committed La Nins signal. Effects of La Nina, on Aus region will be felt for several months to come IMO.

Even beyond that, there's a 50/50 chance of trifecta La Nina:

Kinda starting to look like the 1998-2001 epoch IMO.

 

[POW Hungry]

NOAA excerpt from their fortnightly wrap up: