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Ben Lomond Snow and Weather Predictions 2011

Discussion in 'Ben Lomond' started by Tezwah, May 9, 2011.

  1. Tezwah

    Tezwah Hard Yards

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    Should see some snow this week!
     
  2. Bulldozer

    Bulldozer First Runs

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    Like your optimism Tez, should get a few dustings but it wont amount to much, more nuisance value then anything.
    Currently -4.8 in the village with a very light dusting and a hard frost.
     
  3. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Would have snowed all night last night up there.. Was cold . At a guess a 5-7cm snow fall.. 10mm Rain in Launie.! .. Some more friday & maybe some snow showers saturday arvo ! ...Cold weather Wakes me from my work imposed forum hibenation anyways! [​IMG]
     
    #3 BenLomond Iceman, May 11, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  4. Ben Lomond Brad

    Ben Lomond Brad Part of the Furniture Moderator

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    Sounded like hail in launie close to midnight last night, so it was def cold everywhere
     
  5. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Minus 5 on the Ben @ 7.30 this AM. Cloud and. Moisture about and cold as!.. Should snow again today! .
     
  6. CaptainPowder

    CaptainPowder Hard Yards

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    reckon its snowing now....
     
  7. daveski4ever

    daveski4ever Hard Yards

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    Has anyone checked out the snow conditions on the Big Island. Cover is already looking good over there. Bugger it doesn't seem to come south to us with the same intensity !
     
  8. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Should see some more light snow tonight & occasional snow showers tommorrow.. No big accumulation now it,s to cold from the SW.. -4 @ 5.30PM.. ! Will probably get down to -6 to - 7 tommorrow morning if the s/w drops out!
     
  9. BenLomondBezzer

    BenLomondBezzer Hard Yards

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    Weather is looking more positive with the SOI returning closer to neutral over the past week or two. looking at the graphs they look pretty amazing! The La Nina pattern that has been the biggest on record!

    Highs are weakening consistently and the cold nights are pretty amazing and should be cooling things off nicely for the first few big fronts.

    This weekend there should be a pretty mega system crossing the state and it could bring some snow up on the mountain. It also looks like the temperature will be under 0 for quite a few days after the front also.

    The 16 day forecast on weather zone is showing a mega high after the front that should hold cold nights for 2 weeks to come.

    Bring on 2011
     
  10. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    I agree with your Prog BLBez definatley cold enough for snow on Ben all weekend from Friday night.. Probably will see the most snow on sunday arvo / night with some v cold weather & low (below) 500m snow on Monday.
     
  11. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    it,s looking good for some decent snowfalls on the Ben this coming week..Wouldn,t be suprised if there was a little bit last night but expect snow to start falling tomorrow morning heavier towards sunday evening .. Could see snow continue through until mid next week.. ! We could get good snowfall (10cm+) on tuesday with cold moist north westerlies ahead of a cold southerly change if the fronts stay on line !
     
  12. julz7250

    julz7250 Hard Yards

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    Just got back from the mountain. Was at least 5-7cm on the ground this morning. Had to fit chains at the top of the ladder just to be sure. Looks pretty nice up there with a nice little covering. As you said BLIM, should be looking pretty good after the next couple of days.
     
  13. Ben Lomond Brad

    Ben Lomond Brad Part of the Furniture Moderator

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    News just reported possible snowfalls right through until Wednesday......here's hoping!!
     
  14. North Face

    North Face First Runs

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    The next low looks big for snow on Ben. Got the feeling we will have lots of snow this season.
     
  15. BenLomondBezzer

    BenLomondBezzer Hard Yards

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    Currently if that low moves any further north it will create a South East air stream over the state on Tuesday evening through into Wednesday and could bring some serious snow. Also doesn't look like it will get much above zero until the next system comes on about the 15th. Woot.
     
  16. Maxcimus

    Maxcimus Hard Yards

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    BOM is on board for the south east flow with snow down to 700m. Things are setting up quite well it would seem!
     
  17. Ironstone

    Ironstone Hard Yards

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    I checked the thermometer in the carport at 5.00 am soon after it started raining in Launceston - 6 degrees when with the air stirred up, 9 degrees usually means snow for Ben. Still 6 degrees at 9 00 o clock. The weatherzone satellite image shows a thick cloud band coming in from SSE but likely to move away by this arvo and not much to follow. But enough to work with all told I would think
     
  18. Ben Lomond Brad

    Ben Lomond Brad Part of the Furniture Moderator

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    [​IMG]

     
    #18 Ben Lomond Brad, Jun 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  19. Tas Snow Hunter

    Tas Snow Hunter First Runs

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    Well done BLB. Here is hoping for a quick follow up front to really kick off the season.
     
  20. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Hopefully the weather doesn,t go to easterly overnight & warm up but hopefully snow will continue above 1000m overnight clearing tommorrow.. Should see cold clear conditions over the weekend
     
  21. BenLomondBezzer

    BenLomondBezzer Hard Yards

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    Only -0.3 up there at the moment, it looks as if its stabilised but could get warmer. Humidity is increasing also so thats not a good sign.

    As BLIM says lets hope the ra#n stays away and or it stays below 0 until tomorrow when the high moved through.
     
  22. BenLomondBezzer

    BenLomondBezzer Hard Yards

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    Looks like last night the temp hovered around zero with this morning it was +0.2.

    Might have been marginal for snow last night, but the best part about looking to the weekend will be the cold nights and warmer days to freeze thaw the base to Ice block it up!!

    Should be fine most of the next week until the next fronts come through, but nothing major for 10 days or so in the weather fronts.
     
  23. daveski4ever

    daveski4ever Hard Yards

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    So I take it, all going well, the lifts should be running next week, even if on a limited basis, but perhaps not this weekend ??

    If anyone has further photos of the conditions up there it would be great to see them. The ones of Creek Inn are amazing, let alone the parks photos at the base of Jacobs Ladder.

    Might need to get on the ph to McDermotts to see when they are starting to run the buses up to Ben.
     
  24. BenLomondBezzer

    BenLomondBezzer Hard Yards

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    So things are looking interesting for the night of the 22nd after some brief prefrontal maybe.

    The Chart is looking good for a cold North Wester stretching up from the deep south
    [​IMG]

    Once this hits with round one it might come back for a second go and out to 16 days at this stage to:
    [​IMG]

    So this should be interesting to watch moving into mid to late next week as the models start to line up for the state. [​IMG]

    This front seems to be more south westerly but has a north-west beginning and a southerly end plus should stick around for 2 to 3 days.

    Here's to the cool Antarctic Breeze [​IMG]
     
    #24 BenLomondBezzer, Jun 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  25. BenLomondBezzer

    BenLomondBezzer Hard Yards

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    Also keep an eye on the Weather Temperature in relation to the humidity if your interested in the quality and likelyhood in marginal snow conditions

    [​IMG]
     
    #25 BenLomondBezzer, Jun 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  26. billy boy

    billy boy First Runs

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    Any idea what this next front will bring?
     
  27. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Mild on the Ben this morning @ +4.5 compared to everywhere else .. Weather should stay fine today with cloud & wind increasing tommorrow.
    Should see a bit of gobbler & showers with snow a possibility on friday arvo / evening.. Clearing to a fine weekend though cold with a bit of wind & cloud on saturday.. Overall we will lose a bit of cover thursday & friday but hopefully pick up a couple of cm friday night.. Looks good for some more snow with a substantial front coming through early next week..
     
  28. Jonwah

    Jonwah Hard Yards

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    Apparently the BOM is about to bring out a new website with much more detailed weather forecasting... could be a good thing to predict the snow with more accuracy! Due this month, or so I hear..
     
  29. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Looks like a bit of snow gobbler heading towards ben today . Hopefully its not that hungry !
     
  30. julz7250

    julz7250 Hard Yards

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    Rain through Launie at the moment, temps a little marginal IMO for on the mountain. Hopefully though we get a couple of cm's of fresh before tomorrow and my first day up there this season!
     
  31. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    0.8 on the Ben at 9am. So it would be sleeting maybe snowing if there is any wind to mix it up.. It was around 0 last night so it could have snowed.. Definatley would not be pleasant up there this morning !
     
  32. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    4-5cm of snow on friday & cold weater yesterday & things still looking good up there.. Moist n/westerlys today & tommorrow to warm for snow currently 3 degs on the Ben.. Hopefully we dont lost to much cover .. It should turn to snow monday night with snow continuing into tuesday & maybe wednesday.. cover should be back to good again by wednesday !.. Possibly 10-15cm of snow late monday- wed & we dont lose ti much before it arrives
     
  33. Powder_skier

    Powder_skier First Runs

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    Must be snowing surely!
     
  34. Maxcimus

    Maxcimus Hard Yards

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    I think its a couple degrees too warm, it's usually below 10 in launceston when its snowing on the Ben. Could be wrong though!
     
  35. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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  36. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Gobbler yesterday arvo though cleared early this am but back again today though a little cooler.. 1.5 on the Ben currently with wet mist & strong wind lifts are on hold today... Hopefully we should things turn to snow tonight .
     
  37. Maxcimus

    Maxcimus Hard Yards

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    What's the damage report? I would imagine the base would hold up fairly well with a bit of rain.
     
  38. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    According to Eryl still plenty of snow on all runs this morning after a little freeze early on this am but yes would have lost 10cm plus yesterday but u get the with wet mist & snow gobbler ! Things should stabilise overnight when the temp drops hopefully
     
  39. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    42mm of Ra*n on the Ben since 2pm.. Cover will be getting some punishment !
     
  40. Maxcimus

    Maxcimus Hard Yards

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    Ouch! Doesn't sound good at all!!
     
  41. BenLomondBezzer

    BenLomondBezzer Hard Yards

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    Negative Ghostrider... rain total getting closer to 60 mm now.
     
  42. BenLomondBezzer

    BenLomondBezzer Hard Yards

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    [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #42 BenLomondBezzer, Jun 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  43. BenLomondBezzer

    BenLomondBezzer Hard Yards

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    Should turn to snow early in the morning. and last in below zero temps until about mid afternoon Wednesday

    First week in July is showing massive potential to get what we have lost back and more.
    [​IMG]
     
    #43 BenLomondBezzer, Jun 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  44. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    It would be snowing up there now.. Maybe 2-3cm. The main moisture has passed. enough fresh probably to keep operating ok but will need a fair bit more to replace the Ra*n damage.. Hopefully a bit more tommorrow along with the little we get today
     
  45. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    110mm of Ra*n in 24hrs. Thats a lot of snow down the drain
     
  46. Baldy

    Baldy First Runs

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    Imagine of that was snow [​IMG]
     
    #46 Baldy, Jun 21, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  47. Maxcimus

    Maxcimus Hard Yards

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    Would have been snowing since the early AM this morning I think. Hopefully that all that rain didnt completely kill the base!

    Can't say I have seen it happen many times before but still disappointing!
     
  48. julz7250

    julz7250 Hard Yards

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    To be honest I find it a bit hard to believe that they got 110mm in that time period. Especially considering that no where else in the state even got close to that! Of course, I in no way want to believe that much ra!n fell.

    On the other hand, there should have been a few cm's this morning, maybe 5-10, a little more if lucky? Hopefully that goes some way to rebuilding the cover that we had.
     
  49. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    i believe they got that amount of rain if you saw the flood coming down the north esk this am.. The main road was under 3-4" water at Ballroom..
    I got that info off the csiro weaher station opposite giblin slope so i rekon it,s correct.
    The cover is looking still really good up there.. V LUCKY that we got this maybe 7-8cm today ... It still would be skiable even if it did not snow this morning
     
  50. julz7250

    julz7250 Hard Yards

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    Yeah fair enough. It just seemed like a lot seeing as Launie didn't get near to that and I thought some might have been snow or ice melt. Fantastic news that the cover held up and tows will be running.

    In terms of predictions, it doesn't look like much will happen for a few days now, with potentially something brewing around the 1-5th of July - too far away to be sure about anything.