1. SPECIAL NOTE TO NEW REGISTRATIONS

    If you recently registered and have not received a confirmation email - please check your 'Spam or Junk' folders. Especially if your email is Hotmail. More help with confirmation issues

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

BOM calling an El Nino but I'm not so sure...

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by BillyKidd, Apr 28, 2015.

  1. Falls expat

    Falls expat One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2000
    Messages:
    2,922
    Likes Received:
    219
    Location:
    London
    [​IMG]
    SOI falling off a cliff.
     
  2. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,331
    Likes Received:
    9,789
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
  3. BillyKidd

    BillyKidd One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2010
    Messages:
    1,398
    Likes Received:
    594
    Not wanting to be a harbinger of doom and what have you, especially after the great snowfalls on the first day of winter, but the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is now showing a worse value than that for the 1982 season. If it starts to nudge up to the positives or very marginal negatives then we'll get some snow but otherwise that is making bad season noises..........bugger. :(:(
     
  4. TOFF

    TOFF Im kind of a big deal Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2004
    Messages:
    43,238
    Likes Received:
    17,315
    Location:
    Somewhere between right and wrong
    Off to weather :)
     
  5. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,331
    Likes Received:
    9,789
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    There's a Nino thread here already
    :)
     
  6. Simplicius

    Simplicius Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2014
    Messages:
    50
    Likes Received:
    93
    I wasn't alive then, but i do know that was the bad part of a 5 year drought. There is no reason the expect blocking highs to persist all the way through July like in a real drought... I'd say those dire times are yet to come in the next few years.

    I expect Lows to start pushing through early next week and a good base by mid July... SOI values don't mean much at all in the short term from my lay knowledge, one month can be well in the negative and quickly be in the positive the next.

    Being this close to the season following individual lows will be far more telling...
     
  7. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2014
    Messages:
    28,456
    Likes Received:
    22,448
    1981 was one of the best seasons ever. I was riding the Eyre T-bar on the third weekend in October. The t-bar track was in a trench over head height in some places.
     
    sixty_eight likes this.
  8. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    2,919
    Location:
    Gerroa
    There was a big snowfall in Jindy early in 1982 as well. My only memory of that year is snow in the caravan park in town all week, and riding Eyre and sking among the rocks on a great track I had carved out. And all on narrow alpine skis from the olden days. I guess the season all fell apart after that?
     
  9. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    4,218
    Likes Received:
    3,625
    Location:
    Cairns, Queensland
    An interesting bit of trivia popped up in my Facebook news feed today. I live in Cairns and we have just had the wettest June on record this year with 150mm and still one day to go. The interesting part is we had a terrible wet season which ties in with an El Nino event, the wettest June prior to this year was in 1987 which was an El Nino year and also a rather ordinary snow season with no real record breaking depths. I would say that all is not lost yet if weather patterns tend to repeat themselves. The readings from Spencers Creek this year as compared to 1987 show alot of similarity to each other. I'd say the kick off for season 2015 could only be a matter of days away. This isn't based on looking at weather charts as I'm not all that good especially with looking at southern weather patterns but rather just looking at what has happened in the past. I hope I'm right.
     
  10. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,288
    Likes Received:
    13,636
  11. JoeKing

    JoeKing Old n' Thrusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2011
    Messages:
    24,319
    Likes Received:
    11,598
    Location:
    a galaxy far, far away.
    A bit tldr

    They said it's gonna be hotter this year. Yes?
     
  12. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2008
    Messages:
    47,290
    Likes Received:
    15,448
    Location:
    Perth
    August '82 was a losing game of dodge the rock. A real shock to the system after '81. So much gear must have been destroyed that year.
     
  13. Falls expat

    Falls expat One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2000
    Messages:
    2,922
    Likes Received:
    219
    Location:
    London
    1982 was colder than normal over SE Australia, it was just dry so hence lack of snow.
     
    JoeKing likes this.
  14. BillyKidd

    BillyKidd One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2010
    Messages:
    1,398
    Likes Received:
    594

    1981 was an outstanding year and it really was. Serious snow. 1982 on the other hand was a shocker. On paper it looks awful. But in fact I skied that entire season as well at FC and, while you took the rock hoppers out, the skiing was actually pretty sensational in parts. Sun Valley was great through Ruined Castle (through to the October closing weekend - Spring skiing at its finest in fact). Had a blast out in the back country XC and we took skidoos out to Mt McKay on a regular basis where it was good (sometimes great) skiing. Valley of the Moon was skiable almost to the end and the Gully was navigable. Yes, there were rocks and outcrops but these were largely avoidable. What is interesting is that it all seems relative. Perhaps we have become a little spoiled but keep in mind there was no snow making over the back (or at all) and yet the season, while not great, was a lot of fun and the cover skiable on through. My suspicion is that the amount of tree cover now present is much more than existed in the 1940s - 1980s. There is much more cover on the various trails coming back into the village, much more through the Gully and the tussock grass is substantial where it previously wasn't to such an extent. That tree cover seems to reduce a goodly amount of snow retained on the ground. Ditto grasses and (especially up through the Eagle Chair area) the low growth. No doubt the reduction in snowfall as the snowline moves up has not helped but just compare photos of the, say, 60s and 70s with now.
     
  15. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    63,574
    Likes Received:
    10,790
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Stay on topic.
    The thread is about El Nino, not how good/bad the skiing was.
     
  16. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2001
    Messages:
    1,060
    Likes Received:
    237
    Location:
    Brissy
    POAMA update has Nino3.4 > +2°C:

    [​IMG]


    Moves it back into line with the others, but it looks like they haven't updated the comparison graph yet:

    [​IMG]
     
  17. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,288
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    Why those westerlies just keep on keeping on
    [​IMG]
     
  18. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2001
    Messages:
    1,060
    Likes Received:
    237
    Location:
    Brissy
    Now fixed -- someone is reading this.
     
  19. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    2,919
    Location:
    Gerroa
  20. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,288
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    [​IMG]
    That's a model forecast. Need a new colormap.
     
  21. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2001
    Messages:
    1,060
    Likes Received:
    237
    Location:
    Brissy
    Who was that ?Danish prof who predicted a super El Niño for 2015, way back in 2013...
     
  22. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    2,919
    Location:
    Gerroa
    latest from Climate at Gov.

    ++ July 2015 El Niño update: Bruce Lee? ++
    http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/july-2015-el-niño-update-bruce-lee
    El Niño continued to build during June, despite some shorter-term fluctuations in the climate system (here’s looking at you, MJO). CPC/IRI forecasters are still very confident that this event will persist through the winter, and they continue to favor a strong event, with the three-month average sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region expected to peak at more than 1.5°C above normal.

    Nearly all the computer models are in agreement, and the atmosphere and ocean continued to behave in a very El Niño-like manner. So what is there to talk about this month? Well, a few interesting things happened over the past few weeks.
    read on: http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/july-2015-el-niño-update-bruce-lee
     
  23. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,288
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    BoM need to update the scales on their Nino3.4 graph here
    [​IMG]
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,909
    Likes Received:
    49,219
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  25. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2008
    Messages:
    17,625
    Likes Received:
    11,890
    Location:
    Jindabyne
  26. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2001
    Messages:
    3,045
    Likes Received:
    1,250
    Location:
    Gordon, Vic
    So what does all that mean for the rest of Aus ski season?
     
  27. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    2,919
    Location:
    Gerroa
    SOI is full el nino - daily/30day are near even at -18.
    https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

    Winter seems to come in a burst sometime in July - last few years. - 2012 was longer into August/Sept

    If it does not rain after this - Sept could be solid with Sept/Oct school holidays the earliest they will go for a few years.

    Could be half epic. or could be a wash out yet...

    and let's not forget the hair dryer - it could easily go to full setting late August... giving a whole new meaning to the August Winds. The bush is at 3rd base for fires. It's just needs no more rain with wind and sun and it will burn.
     
    #177 rocketboy, Jul 14, 2015
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2015
  28. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,288
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    BoM international model summary updated
     
  29. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,288
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    Compare your El Ninos
    [​IMG]
     
  30. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2008
    Messages:
    17,625
    Likes Received:
    11,890
    Location:
    Jindabyne
    Dislike
     
  31. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    2,919
    Location:
    Gerroa
    Is it fair to compare those charts when they are just comparing month of the year rather than progressive months since start of each separate event. Each ENSO cycle is complety different driven by PDO, IDO and all the other events that determine how each el nino evolves. The climate is a kaleidoscope of chaos.
     
  32. phantomas

    phantomas Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2005
    Messages:
    262
    Likes Received:
    71
    Location:
    sydney
    PG, how do you read these? I can see that in 97 the anomalies off South America were more intense, but what is happening in the Indian Ocean looks even more disturbing.
     
  33. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,331
    Likes Received:
    9,789
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Does that warm water in the IO not offset the effects of el Nino. Seems to have so far.
     
  34. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,288
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    These are anomalies computed against the average from 1961-1990.

    So you have to take into account the background ocean warming that has occurred in the last 20 years.

    Against some measures, the 2015 El Nino has exceeded 1997 levels of consecutive weeks of Nino3 SST above 1.0 degree anomaly (10 vs 8). However, are those extra two weeks related to the strength of the ENSO event or are they are reflection of the long-term warming trend?

    Where we are now
    [​IMG]
    Highest weekly value since 97-98.
     
    phantomas likes this.
  35. phantomas

    phantomas Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2005
    Messages:
    262
    Likes Received:
    71
    Location:
    sydney
    Also the Patch of negative anomaly off Greenland now, is it fair to link that to the unprecedented melt happening on Greenland now?
     
  36. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,331
    Likes Received:
    9,789
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Seems pretty logical
     
  37. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2011
    Messages:
    34,365
    Likes Received:
    11,960
  38. kiter

    kiter One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2002
    Messages:
    861
    Likes Received:
    349
    Location:
    Newcastle
    I fear that as el nino entrenches frontal systems from now on will have little punch . what do the boffins think?
     
  39. AJS

    AJS One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2014
    Messages:
    509
    Likes Received:
    727
  40. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,288
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    Latest El Nino news (which probably incorporates some quotes from the above)
     
  41. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2008
    Messages:
    47,616
    Likes Received:
    18,003
    Location:
    Canning Vale, Perth
    similar article:
    http://unofficialnetworks.com/2015/08/godzilla-el-nino-forecasted-for-2016-ski-season

    Not just that but folks all over the Southwest are stoked on what may be the ski season they’ve been waiting for since 1997, which is the last time an El Niño this strong reared its beautiful head. NASA Climatologist Bill Patzert even told the LA Times that the current El Niño trend is “stronger than it was in 1997.”

    After the 1997 El Niño event, the Sierra Nevada mountains received approximately twice the snowfall average.
     
  42. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,288
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    Both NINO3 and NINO3.4 SSTs anomalies have reached 2.0 degrees.

    5-day subsurface temperatore anomalies from the TAO have reached +7 for the first time for this event.
     
  43. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    29,900
    Likes Received:
    12,969
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    Thankfully warragamba is now full....
     
  44. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,288
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    Positive IOD is looming, which is bad news as the negative IOD we've had for the past few months has softened the rainfall impacts of El Nino.
     
  45. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,288
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    A classic case of bad media reporting

    Not counting the major scientific flaws in this story, pay close attention to what quotes and statements are attributed to the scientist and what actually appears in quotation marks.
     
  46. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,288
    Likes Received:
    13,636
  47. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    2,919
    Location:
    Gerroa
  48. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2008
    Messages:
    47,616
    Likes Received:
    18,003
    Location:
    Canning Vale, Perth
  49. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2008
    Messages:
    17,625
    Likes Received:
    11,890
    Location:
    Jindabyne
    792 data points is reasonable.
     
  50. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2008
    Messages:
    47,616
    Likes Received:
    18,003
    Location:
    Canning Vale, Perth
    in the history of the world?