1. SPECIAL NOTE TO NEW REGISTRATIONS

    If you recently registered and have not received a confirmation email - please check your 'Spam or Junk' folders. Especially if your email is Hotmail. More help with confirmation issues

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

BOM calling an El Nino but I'm not so sure...

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by BillyKidd, Apr 28, 2015.

  1. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2008
    Messages:
    17,627
    Likes Received:
    11,905
    Location:
    Jindabyne
    Why do you need that much information?

    You'll find similar results from the BOM ENSO dataset
     
  2. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2008
    Messages:
    47,634
    Likes Received:
    18,026
    Location:
    Canning Vale, Perth
    I suppose it depends what people are doing with those results.

    if it just confirms a hot El Nino, then no problems, but if then people link made-made global warming to this, then more data is more reliable
     
  3. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2008
    Messages:
    17,627
    Likes Received:
    11,905
    Location:
    Jindabyne
    Your tautology is correct, but in an environment with, for all practical purposes, infinite information there will always be more information. How would you decide when you have a large enough data set?
     
  4. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,287
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    All weather events are affected by man-made global warming.
     
    Telemark Phat likes this.
  5. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,287
    Likes Received:
    13,636
  6. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2008
    Messages:
    47,634
    Likes Received:
    18,026
    Location:
    Canning Vale, Perth

    agreed, so peoplle should express opinions, and not call it science
     
  7. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    63,598
    Likes Received:
    10,830
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Stay on topic
     
  8. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2008
    Messages:
    17,627
    Likes Received:
    11,905
    Location:
    Jindabyne
    The scientific method produces more rigorous opinions, they're still opinions.
     
  9. DPS Driver

    DPS Driver One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2014
    Messages:
    3,376
    Likes Received:
    3,163
    One of my favourite sayings:

    "Opinions are like arseholes, everyone's got one".
     
    Cuppa likes this.
  10. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    29,902
    Likes Received:
    12,976
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    also like a penis, just because you have one doesn't mean you have to show it to everyone, at every opportunity
     
  11. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2007
    Messages:
    25,200
    Likes Received:
    27,772
    Being called a 'Godzilla El Nino' now.
     
  12. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    63,598
    Likes Received:
    10,830
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Stay on the straight and narrow..... this is Weather not CV.
     
  13. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    29,902
    Likes Received:
    12,976
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    SOI forecast is for strong El nino to continue, IOD forecast may moderate it's effect later in summer.
     
  14. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    2,919
    Location:
    Gerroa
  15. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    1,953
    Likes Received:
    973
    There's a far bit of talk about this El-Nino peaking in Nov-Dec. It'll be interesting to see how it collapses and pushes warm water into the seas to our North over summer/autumn. If it's anything like early 2010, we could see some stormy weather ahead. That year the collapse in El-Nino coincided with a rapid drop in 600 HPa temps - and boom - we were smashed up badly with massive hailstorms, heavy rains, and floods from February onwards.
     
  16. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    1,953
    Likes Received:
    973
  17. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    2,919
    Location:
    Gerroa
    So what's up with evil child. Lost in the Atacama desert - or drowned in the blob off Cali.?

    what be interesting to hear what the experts have to say about this year's el nino.
     
  18. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    5,663
    Likes Received:
    2,943
    Location:
    Wollongong
    me too rocketboy. Weather patterns at the moment seem decidedly un-el-nino over Australia with the wet season pattern already kicking in and some decent rainfall totals over the past few weeks across the country.
     
  19. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,287
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    Moonsoon has started. It's normal.
    El Nino rainfall impacts are greatest in the Spring (i.e. what happened in September and October).
    [​IMG]
     
  20. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    4,218
    Likes Received:
    3,625
    Location:
    Cairns, Queensland
    Not much happening around Cairns yet. Still waiting for the first thunderstorm of the season:(
     
  21. nickGT

    nickGT Early Days

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2015
    Messages:
    129
    Likes Received:
    15
    lots of rain on the goldie over the past week.
     
  22. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    4,218
    Likes Received:
    3,625
    Location:
    Cairns, Queensland
    Everywhere except here:(
     
  23. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    1,953
    Likes Received:
    973
  24. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    63,598
    Likes Received:
    10,830
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    It's sort of odd.... normally, the SSTs around eastern Australia are cooler than usual.

    Sep this year:
    [​IMG]

    Sep 1982:
    [​IMG]
    Feb 1983:
    [​IMG]

    And Sep 1997:
    [​IMG]
     
  25. DPS Driver

    DPS Driver One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2014
    Messages:
    3,376
    Likes Received:
    3,163
    Note: the direction of the rain we've been having on the Goldy is not monsoonal.
     
  26. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    29,902
    Likes Received:
    12,976
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    We have had warm sst in the Tasman for probably more than a year. It's like Eddy trapped in the continuum.
     
  27. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    1,953
    Likes Received:
    973
    Sept 1987 was a fairly close parallel to this year IMO:
    [​IMG]
     
  28. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    63,598
    Likes Received:
    10,830
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Northern Pacific is very different.... and NE QLD is warmer.
    [​IMG]
     
  29. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    29,902
    Likes Received:
    12,976
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    Looking at that I am struck by the comparative global absence of blue
     
    DPS Driver likes this.
  30. BMT

    BMT Early Days

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2015
    Messages:
    103
    Likes Received:
    12
    Location:
    canberra
    Yes agreed ... makes me panic about the Japanese winter and whether I should can the booking in Honshu and go north!
     
  31. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    29,902
    Likes Received:
    12,976
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    Would have thought strong north south temp gradient > more moisture >more intense storms...is Japan ever prone to being too warm?
     
  32. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    63,598
    Likes Received:
    10,830
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Think about it.....

    Where does the cold air come from in Japan during winter? Off the sea, or off Siberia?
     
  33. BMT

    BMT Early Days

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2015
    Messages:
    103
    Likes Received:
    12
    Location:
    canberra
    Siberia BUT if the tropical lows push north they transport a lot of heat north and can disrupt the normal flow...
     
  34. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    29,902
    Likes Received:
    12,976
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    But the warm pool is north and the cool pool south so that scenario unlikely, my inexperienced read is this if anything will intensify the continental air flow.
     
  35. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    63,598
    Likes Received:
    10,830
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Tropical lows don't push that far north. Most disruptive lows start off as a trough west of Shanghai, and track east or ENE. Some track right through Tokyo, others push a little further north. In either case they drag in warm winds from the south. Because the low tracks close to central Japan where the isobars are tighter, the injection of warm air is not as far from the south.... but in Hokkaido, it's further from the south and lasts longer.
     
  36. DPS Driver

    DPS Driver One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2014
    Messages:
    3,376
    Likes Received:
    3,163
    Japan will be fine. It's possible that the main island could feel some heat but Hokkaido would still be somewhat insulated. If that is the correct term.
    The airflow across such a large landmass will generally stay somewhat consistent and will for the majority be cool enough. The moisture is a good thing for Japan. The latitude of low pressure systems obviously have critical effect re wind direction but even southerlies will produce snow in many parts of Japan, be it heavier.
     
  37. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    63,598
    Likes Received:
    10,830
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Any airflow from the Asian mainland, apart from winds across China south of Shanghai (rare) will not be just cool, it will be cold.

    Southerlies rarely produce snow on the resorts in Japan. Two reasons: too warm and the precip falls in the south east facing side of the mountains. Anything that gets through is usually rain below 1500m or higher.
     
  38. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    2,919
    Location:
    Gerroa
    Check out the global snow cover here - easy to compare to previous years and months.

    And for some old science from1958 - here's what Maurice Ewing - the head of what effectively became GISS (Hansen, Schmidt et al) said way back then about the "lake effect" in an article in Harper's Magazine.


    Global snow cover Nov 1
     
  39. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    63,598
    Likes Received:
    10,830
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    We are getting a bit off topic now...... ;)
     
  40. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    2,919
    Location:
    Gerroa
    My point was the "snow line" is moving steadily down from the north - and Japan should be in for a fairly normal season. And all that extra moisture from the "warm waters" might just make for some mega dumpage. I also noticed that earth.nullschool is showing a rapidly peaking pacific el nino condition. How quickly it flips is anyone's guess at this point. but 1998 was a very rapid decay.
     
    Majikthise likes this.
  41. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    2,919
    Location:
    Gerroa
    Long paddock is showing the SOI might be shifting. Is this just a passing phase due to an MJO event or such - or is this peak El Nino in action?
     
  42. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    63,598
    Likes Received:
    10,830
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    All it takes is a single tough near Darwin to push the SOI into + territory
     
  43. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,287
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    Wait and see. Some people think El Nino has reached its peak, which would be a good thing for Australia.

    We'll know in a few weeks, EC and BoM seasonal models both predict more trade wind anomalies in the coming weeks.
     
  44. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    2,919
    Location:
    Gerroa
  45. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,287
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    SOI beginning to back off now.
     
  46. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    2,919
    Location:
    Gerroa
  47. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    4,218
    Likes Received:
    3,625
    Location:
    Cairns, Queensland
    The North Queensland wet season officially started overnight with a good rain inflow from the north east around Cairns. The earliest start I've seen in many years, not bad for an El Nino year.
     
  48. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    7,568
    Likes Received:
    13,243
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

    El Niño remains strong, but some cooling now observed at depth
    Issued on 22 December 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

    El Niño remains near its peak, with the tropical Pacific Ocean and overlying atmosphere consistent with a strong event. Models suggest the event will start to decline in 2016, but a return to ENSO-neutral is not likely until at least autumn.

    Sea surface temperatures and cloud patterns near the Date Line remain well in excess of El Niño thresholds. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has returned to El Niño levels following a brief period of neutral values. Below-surface ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific remain significantly warmer than average, but clearly some cooling has occurred in the past fortnight. Changes in the sub-surface are an important indicator, as the sub-surface plays a significant role in maintaining the strength and longevity of El Niño events.

    El Niño's influence on Australian rainfall is variable at this time of year, with both wetter and drier summers observed in past events depending on how quickly the event breaks down. Both daytime and overnight temperatures tend to be warmer than average during an El Niño summer. For more information, see the official rainfall and temperature outlook.

    The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate between December and April. However, Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures remain very much warmer than average across the majority of the basin. This basin-wide warmth may provide extra moisture for rain systems across Australia.

    Next update expected on 5 January 2016 |
     
  49. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,287
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    Recent tropical storms in the Pacific have slowed the decline of El Nino. We could be looking at an 1982-83 situation instead of a 1997-98 situation, which is often bad for Australia.

    EDIT : Further clarification
     
    #249 Rush, Jan 18, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2016
  50. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    2,919
    Location:
    Gerroa
    According to Snowy Hydro depth record. 83 was better than 98 and 15. For a below average season '83 started with 60 cm by June 9 - peaked at 142cm in early August and began Oct with 95cm still left. Overall it tracked better that 2015 and was better overall than compared to 1998.

    Meanwhile, we've had plenty of weather this summer in the south east with solid cold fronts every 6 weeks or so.