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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by BillyKidd, Apr 28, 2015.
Why do you need that much information?
You'll find similar results from the BOM ENSO dataset
I suppose it depends what people are doing with those results.
if it just confirms a hot El Nino, then no problems, but if then people link made-made global warming to this, then more data is more reliable
Your tautology is correct, but in an environment with, for all practical purposes, infinite information there will always be more information. How would you decide when you have a large enough data set?
All weather events are affected by man-made global warming.
agreed, so peoplle should express opinions, and not call it science
Stay on topic
The scientific method produces more rigorous opinions, they're still opinions.
One of my favourite sayings:
"Opinions are like arseholes, everyone's got one".
also like a penis, just because you have one doesn't mean you have to show it to everyone, at every opportunity
Being called a 'Godzilla El Nino' now.
Stay on the straight and narrow..... this is Weather not CV.
SOI forecast is for strong El nino to continue, IOD forecast may moderate it's effect later in summer.
latest update from climate.gov has been posted
What to expect this winter: NOAA’s outlook reveals what conditions are favored across the US
There's a far bit of talk about this El-Nino peaking in Nov-Dec. It'll be interesting to see how it collapses and pushes warm water into the seas to our North over summer/autumn. If it's anything like early 2010, we could see some stormy weather ahead. That year the collapse in El-Nino coincided with a rapid drop in 600 HPa temps - and boom - we were smashed up badly with massive hailstorms, heavy rains, and floods from February onwards.
Meanwhile, in the Atacama desert in Chile: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-...becomes-floral-wonderland-after-rains/6891268
So what's up with evil child. Lost in the Atacama desert - or drowned in the blob off Cali.?
what be interesting to hear what the experts have to say about this year's el nino.
me too rocketboy. Weather patterns at the moment seem decidedly un-el-nino over Australia with the wet season pattern already kicking in and some decent rainfall totals over the past few weeks across the country.
Moonsoon has started. It's normal.
El Nino rainfall impacts are greatest in the Spring (i.e. what happened in September and October).
Not much happening around Cairns yet. Still waiting for the first thunderstorm of the season
lots of rain on the goldie over the past week.
Everywhere except here
Latest weekly update from NOAA: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Nino 3.4 is cooking at +2.8degC. That's 1982/3 territory.
Another take home is that SSTa around Australia will remain hotter than normal. So probably quite a few incursions of tropical air into our region over our Summer into Autumn IMO.
It's sort of odd.... normally, the SSTs around eastern Australia are cooler than usual.
Sep this year:
And Sep 1997:
Note: the direction of the rain we've been having on the Goldy is not monsoonal.
We have had warm sst in the Tasman for probably more than a year. It's like Eddy trapped in the continuum.
Sept 1987 was a fairly close parallel to this year IMO:
Northern Pacific is very different.... and NE QLD is warmer.
Looking at that I am struck by the comparative global absence of blue
Yes agreed ... makes me panic about the Japanese winter and whether I should can the booking in Honshu and go north!
Would have thought strong north south temp gradient > more moisture >more intense storms...is Japan ever prone to being too warm?
Think about it.....
Where does the cold air come from in Japan during winter? Off the sea, or off Siberia?
Siberia BUT if the tropical lows push north they transport a lot of heat north and can disrupt the normal flow...
But the warm pool is north and the cool pool south so that scenario unlikely, my inexperienced read is this if anything will intensify the continental air flow.
Tropical lows don't push that far north. Most disruptive lows start off as a trough west of Shanghai, and track east or ENE. Some track right through Tokyo, others push a little further north. In either case they drag in warm winds from the south. Because the low tracks close to central Japan where the isobars are tighter, the injection of warm air is not as far from the south.... but in Hokkaido, it's further from the south and lasts longer.
Japan will be fine. It's possible that the main island could feel some heat but Hokkaido would still be somewhat insulated. If that is the correct term.
The airflow across such a large landmass will generally stay somewhat consistent and will for the majority be cool enough. The moisture is a good thing for Japan. The latitude of low pressure systems obviously have critical effect re wind direction but even southerlies will produce snow in many parts of Japan, be it heavier.
Any airflow from the Asian mainland, apart from winds across China south of Shanghai (rare) will not be just cool, it will be cold.
Southerlies rarely produce snow on the resorts in Japan. Two reasons: too warm and the precip falls in the south east facing side of the mountains. Anything that gets through is usually rain below 1500m or higher.
Check out the global snow cover here - easy to compare to previous years and months.
And for some old science from1958 - here's what Maurice Ewing - the head of what effectively became GISS (Hansen, Schmidt et al) said way back then about the "lake effect" in an article in Harper's Magazine.
Global snow cover Nov 1
We are getting a bit off topic now......
My point was the "snow line" is moving steadily down from the north - and Japan should be in for a fairly normal season. And all that extra moisture from the "warm waters" might just make for some mega dumpage. I also noticed that earth.nullschool is showing a rapidly peaking pacific el nino condition. How quickly it flips is anyone's guess at this point. but 1998 was a very rapid decay.
Long paddock is showing the SOI might be shifting. Is this just a passing phase due to an MJO event or such - or is this peak El Nino in action?
All it takes is a single tough near Darwin to push the SOI into + territory
Wait and see. Some people think El Nino has reached its peak, which would be a good thing for Australia.
We'll know in a few weeks, EC and BoM seasonal models both predict more trade wind anomalies in the coming weeks.
and right on que climate.gov has an update out today
++ November El Niño update: It’s a small world ++
November 12, 2015
Warmer-than-average waters in the tropical Pacific are expected to reach their peak soon. How has El Niño affected global weather so far this year?
SOI beginning to back off now.
Godzilla it ain't - latest climate.gov ENSO update is out this morning.
The North Queensland wet season officially started overnight with a good rain inflow from the north east around Cairns. The earliest start I've seen in many years, not bad for an El Nino year.
El Niño remains strong, but some cooling now observed at depth
Issued on 22 December 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
El Niño remains near its peak, with the tropical Pacific Ocean and overlying atmosphere consistent with a strong event. Models suggest the event will start to decline in 2016, but a return to ENSO-neutral is not likely until at least autumn.
Sea surface temperatures and cloud patterns near the Date Line remain well in excess of El Niño thresholds. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has returned to El Niño levels following a brief period of neutral values. Below-surface ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific remain significantly warmer than average, but clearly some cooling has occurred in the past fortnight. Changes in the sub-surface are an important indicator, as the sub-surface plays a significant role in maintaining the strength and longevity of El Niño events.
El Niño's influence on Australian rainfall is variable at this time of year, with both wetter and drier summers observed in past events depending on how quickly the event breaks down. Both daytime and overnight temperatures tend to be warmer than average during an El Niño summer. For more information, see the official rainfall and temperature outlook.
The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate between December and April. However, Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures remain very much warmer than average across the majority of the basin. This basin-wide warmth may provide extra moisture for rain systems across Australia.
Next update expected on 5 January 2016 |
Recent tropical storms in the Pacific have slowed the decline of El Nino. We could be looking at an 1982-83 situation instead of a 1997-98 situation, which is often bad for Australia.
EDIT : Further clarification
According to Snowy Hydro depth record. 83 was better than 98 and 15. For a below average season '83 started with 60 cm by June 9 - peaked at 142cm in early August and began Oct with 95cm still left. Overall it tracked better that 2015 and was better overall than compared to 1998.
Meanwhile, we've had plenty of weather this summer in the south east with solid cold fronts every 6 weeks or so.