Day to Day Central QLD weather

RhysD

Hard Yards
Nov 25, 2020
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Thunder and lightning moving in to the south west, not sure if we’ll get it over us but good to see anyway (even if it is in winter & 1.8c just yesterday morning)
 
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Rainbow Serpant

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Nov 5, 2020
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Rockhampton / Gulmarrad NSW
You guys have to be happy with the activity going on up there today?
BOM recorded 9.4mm at Rocky, rang the wife who reckons we got 15mm in our gauge. And yeah, pretty happy with that. I mean it's nothing like the 100mm or 200mm you get in SEQ or NSW, or even Nth Qld, or Nth West Qld (and never will receive those kinds of tallys). But 10mm for dusty old Rocky is a significant fall for there and it was the 6th biggest fall for 2021. Hopefully Rocky can somehow pull another couple of those kind of events before 2021 is over, as it would be good to get up to somewhere near half our yearly average this year.
 

MegaMatch

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Jul 3, 2019
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It was all very isolated again. Those severe cells, as nice to see as they were, if you weren't under them then you weren't really receiving much in the way of significant rainfall. We didn't receive a drop here.

Looks to be more wintery crap on the way from tomorrow night, just very light rain associated with a weak front followed by another blast of westerlies again.
 

Dipole

Hard Yards
Jan 22, 2021
57
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Trying to capture Mammatus on this storm North of Childers

16237424561086050684331506490429.jpg


20210615_173030.jpg
 

MegaMatch

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Past 36 months - aren't you guys the least bit concerned about this trend? What if this is the new normal into the next 50-100 years? Will it eventually become uninhabitable? Most of us will be dead by then, but future generations will have to relocate south of Fraser Island where it actually still rains. I just picture areas to the north of Fraser Island as becoming nothing more than a desert by that time.

2018060120210531.png
 

one drop

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Jul 5, 2019
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maryborough, QLD
Past 36 months - aren't you guys the least bit concerned about this trend? What if this is the new normal into the next 50-100 years? Will it eventually become uninhabitable? Most of us will be dead by then, but future generations will have to relocate south of Fraser Island where it actually still rains. I just picture areas to the north of Fraser Island as becoming nothing more than a desert by that time.

2018060120210531.png
very concerned. this climate is bullshit. droughts and occasional massive floods from here on out. useless weather for us. idk . hope i'm wrong.:cry:
 

Rainbow Serpant

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Nov 5, 2020
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Rockhampton / Gulmarrad NSW
Past 36 months - aren't you guys the least bit concerned about this trend? What if this is the new normal into the next 50-100 years? Will it eventually become uninhabitable? Most of us will be dead by then, but future generations will have to relocate south of Fraser Island where it actually still rains. I just picture areas to the north of Fraser Island as becoming nothing more than a desert by that time.

I was really starting to see this trend unfolding, the summers especially, are getting drier & drier, spring storms are vague memory only the oldies can recall. Which is why we decided to move to a wetter climate where we could grow plants and animals. I can see that area between Hervey Bay and St Lawrence rapidly changing to a coastal desert environment similar to the Namib Desert in Sothern Africa (Like that Pictured here) over the next 50 years. And yes it will be uninhabitable eventually if this extreme drying trend continues as I feel it will.

Capture111aaa111.PNG


Captureaaa111aaaa.PNG
 

Rainbow Serpant

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Nov 5, 2020
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Rockhampton / Gulmarrad NSW
When I came here in late 2011 there were several very wet years, then since Debbie it seems a drying trend?
Sure is, Yeppoon might have got some rain from Debbie, Rocky certainly did not. We got the flooded river, but not the rain which is often how it goes. Here's the drying trend last 4 years, similar to Mega's graphic shared above. That is a rainfall shortfall from average of over 2000mm in 4 years, imagine what the next decade will do.

2017060120210531.png
 

MegaMatch

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Jul 3, 2019
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So many rain and storms around today....not
There looks to be a heavier band of storms associated with the surface front moving across the Central West districts as I type, whether or not they actually reach the coast is another thing.

When I came here in late 2011 there were several very wet years, then since Debbie it seems a drying trend?
Yep there were a few very wet years here from about late 2009 to 2013. Then it gradually tapered off and nearly a decade onwards it hasn't improved, in fact it's still getting progressively worse. The complete lack of storms reaching our district in the spring months, the decrease in general rain events throughout the year, it's all linked.
 

RhysD

Hard Yards
Nov 25, 2020
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I have my doubts. It’s starting to fall apart in places, most likely the section that’ll move over us. Don’t get me wrong I’ve enjoyed the rain lately but a taste of the severe stuff other places have been receiving would not be a bad thing...
 
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Michael Hauber

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Jul 4, 2019
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I do think there is some multi-year variability, and we should see a return to years more like 2009 to 2013 at some stage. That isn't to say there also isn't a long term drying trend, but the reduction in the last decade or so is not representative of how fast any long term drying trend may happen in the future. When there is a return to wet years like 2009 to 2013 it may not be as wet as those years. But I'd be confident it will be wetter than the last 5 or so. Rainfall stats for last 3 months or closer to average for central Qld, which this time of year isn't hugely helpful as average is still rather dry. But I'm hoping there is a pattern change, maybe related to NE Pacific.
 

Rainbow Serpant

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Nov 5, 2020
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I do think there is some multi-year variability, and we should see a return to years more like 2009 to 2013 at some stage. That isn't to say there also isn't a long term drying trend, but the reduction in the last decade or so is not representative of how fast any long term drying trend may happen in the future. When there is a return to wet years like 2009 to 2013 it may not be as wet as those years. But I'd be confident it will be wetter than the last 5 or so. Rainfall stats for last 3 months or closer to average for central Qld, which this time of year isn't hugely helpful as average is still rather dry. But I'm hoping there is a pattern change, maybe related to NE Pacific.
Yeah maybe the NE Pacific might do it, because the recent La Nina was as useful as mammary glands on a bull.
 

Rainbow Serpant

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Nov 5, 2020
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Rockhampton / Gulmarrad NSW
Has La Nina ever delivered for Central Qld ? What about the one 10 years ago did it do better?
Rockhampton did not record any days of 100+mm in 2009, 2011, 2012

The biggest rainfall days for Rockhampton in those years were:
2009 Feb 11th 87.4mm
2011 Aug 28th 57.9mm (not even in the typical wet season)
2012 Jan 30th 56.1mm

So in terms of La Nina delivering big events, and big rains for Rockhampton. No, La Ninas (Moderate/Strong) ones actually suppress rainfall like it did during its peak back in 2010/2011. That 2011 summer Jan/Feb/Mar period should have bucketed down if you listen to the experts, but no, in 2011 in very the height of a record La Nina, Rockhampton had its largest rainfall day in August 28th. It killed our wet season that year, like it did this year too.
 

Michael Hauber

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I do have a gut feel that something has changed with the weather in the last few months, and we are now seeing a series of significant cold fronts which are bringing scattered showers or patchy rain as far north as Central Qld. While there has been no real significant rain this is in contrast to previous winters where most winter lows and fronts would seem to be totally dry even in SEQ. If this much more active pattern continues into next summer it will be much better for both central Qld and SEQ. West of the ranges which had been about as bad as central Qld up to summer has done much better since Autumn. Generally in the past there were many weak systems which would be dry except for triggering showers/storms in the coastal fringe of SEQ with the combination of better moisture and some nearby mountain ranges. Recent systems haven't been favoring this coastal fringe and having a more even impact inland and further north.

Impacts of past La Nina events can be found at BOM. Some events have had heavy rain everywhere including central Qld. The 2010/2011 event had the entire region of central Qld in the top 10 percentile, with a large area inland experiencing record breaking rains.

In 2008/2009 there was little impact for most of Qld south of Mackay and an area inland from the Wide Bay region that was below average. Going a long way back to 1938/1939 there was a generally dry La Nina. Most areas of east Australia received below average rainfall up to January with only an area near Widebay to roughly Gladstone and inland receiving above average rainfall. Victoria had areas of driest on record, and this led up to extreme bushfires in early 1939 that were among the deadliest in history. There was some better rain in Feb to Apr of that year.

193804-193901.gif


And a couple examples of what has happened in other regions in Australia following major reductions in rainfall over a number of years.

First in SW Australia there was a large drop through the 70s and 80s. This was followed by a period with little further reduction and maybe even the slightest of recoveries in the 90s before further reductions more recently.

rranom.swaus.0112.62721.png


A second example is Victoria, and considering Autumn rainfall only. A drier period through the 90s and 00s was unprecedented in the rainfall record, however since then there has been some recovery, but not to levels seen through the 50s to 70s.

rranom.vic.0305.33029.png
 

Vinny

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Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
I remember seeing a map on the BOM site that said SE Qld and am sure it included C Qld had seen about a 10 or 15 percent reduction in rainfall annually ... since the 70's or 80's ?


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Finally dry air today, washing doesn't get dry when humidity is high in winter with no breeze !

Not sure why but we seem to go from this pattern of warmer nights then cold then later next week above average again? Though it seems to have balanced out and we're close to average for this month.

Correct me if wrong regarding winter rainfall, last year seemed like the first year in a while we were getting some rain in winter , this year it seems the same too but go back before 2020 and i remember a 7 month dry spell with no rain at all.

Can't recall what year it was maybe 2014 or 13 we had 100 or 200mm in a winter month, i remember mozzies in July or August.
 

MegaMatch

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Jul 3, 2019
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Bad news for those in CQ, looks like the dreaded La Nina could be a possibility again this coming summer, back to enforce more dry times. Model plumes from BOM ACCESS & NOAA CFSv.

BOM Nino34 access-s1.PNG


CFSv June21.PNG
Yep, more big upper lows, ECLs and floods across SEQ/NSW leading to more drought across CQ. La-Nina means absolutely nothing to me anymore, and I'm sure many people north of Fraser Island feel the same way after last year. Still so many unanswered questions about what happened, many angry farmers who base their harvest on seasonal forecasts, and the best explanation I've seen the BoM come up with was along the lines of "just bad luck". What a load of crap.

Meanwhile, look at this pathetic excuse for this weekend's front:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_swpac_18.png
 

Vinny

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So looks like Saturday will be one of those grey rainy days , one of those winter days when it rains all day to get 10-15mm vs summer when it falls like that fast and hard?

I hope it clears on Sunday am hoping to mow the lawn...not that is growing much. I haven't mowed for about 3 weeks but just a tidy up.
 

Rainbow Serpant

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Nov 5, 2020
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Rockhampton / Gulmarrad NSW
So looks like Saturday will be one of those grey rainy days , one of those winter days when it rains all day to get 10-15mm vs summer when it falls like that fast and hard?

I hope it clears on Sunday am hoping to mow the lawn...not that is growing much. I haven't mowed for about 3 weeks but just a tidy up.
I can't remember what Hard & Fast is like, it's been years since i've seen it rain like that.
However, that kind of cool drizzly day sounds like a great day to cook up a good stew or a soup, grab a comfy couch and watch an old movie or tv series.
 
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MegaMatch

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I can't remember what Hard & Fast is like, it's been years since i've seen it rain like that.
However, that kind of cool drizzly day sounds like a great day to cook up a good stew or a soup, grab a comfy couch and watch an old movie or tv series.
Happened here a few months ago, when we were lucky enough to be under a cell which was barely moving. But if we're talking frequency of events like this then our area suffers the most when you compare it to anywhere else on the east coast imo. For example, 100mm in a day isn't exactly a rare occurrence say, if you live in the monsoonal north, the Mackay region, Sunshine Coast or Gold Coast. But for us, usually we're lucky to get a total like that across 2 or 3 days let alone a few hours.

Just looking at the current weather, following this front sees a return to onshore winds and coastal showers leading to milder temperatures overall for June which I'm not complaining about.
 
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Vinny

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Jul 4, 2019
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milder temperatures overall for June which I'm not complaining about.

I had a look at the Meteye for here for Sunday it has the feels like temp at around 15 at the highest !

Monday with the SE winds picking back up it has 20 deg but feels like 15-16 deg most of the day

Tuesday 21 deg but moderate SE winds keeping it feeling like 16-17 deg and same on Wednesday


So Sunday- Wednesday going back to feeling more "wintery" even though Sunday is only going to be 3 deg below average and Mon- Wednesday a degree below average...

No nights below 12 deg though so it seems
 
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DarkandStormy

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Jul 5, 2019
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Kilkivan, Southern Burnett, QLD
So looks like Saturday will be one of those grey rainy days , one of those winter days when it rains all day to get 10-15mm vs summer when it falls like that fast and hard?

I hope it clears on Sunday am hoping to mow the lawn...not that is growing much. I haven't mowed for about 3 weeks but just a tidy up.
Its quite good to receive some slow soaking rain over a day or two especially when the soil is rock hard like concrete from the soil drying out which is starting to happen on my property.
If I received fast and hard rain which I totally love it would mostly just run off and not soak in so I'm hoping for a dampish winter and hopefully without the frosts and continuous dry freezing SW winds.
 
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MegaMatch

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It's green around here too but it's very dry above that top layer of soil. The weeds are certainly thriving though, pulled a few out but decided to give up in the end as it just wasn't worth the effort required to pull them out if the solid dirt.
 
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Itsjustme

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Jul 4, 2019
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Pacific Haven. Wide Bay
It's green around here too but it's very dry above that top layer of soil. The weeds are certainly thriving though, pulled a few out but decided to give up in the end as it just wasn't worth the effort required to pull them out if the solid dirt.

It's green around here too but it's very dry above that top layer of soil. The weeds are certainly thriving though, pulled a few out but decided to give up in the end as it just wasn't worth the effort required to pull them out if the solid dirt.
I think you had 50mm last month,that would help a bit but like you say nothing under that top soil moisture wise. Don't think the next few days will bring more than a few mm, so far not a drop yet.
 

MegaMatch

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I think you had 50mm last month,that would help a bit but like you say nothing under that top soil moisture wise. Don't think the next few days will bring more than a few mm, so far not a drop yet.
Problem is it's always really patchy. For example, the airport ended up with 70mm for May, here at home we only had 36mm. So far this month, the airport has had 25mm, while here at home we've only had 10mm. Either way, all of those totals are below average for their respective months.
 

Vinny

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I would not be at all surprised if the rain forecast is partially wrong for Rocky and Yeppoon, we end up just overcast for the next 2 days and very small totals Maybe a couple of mm or so.

What I don't get is why the BOM can't put in the Rocky/Yeppoon forcast WHEN the rain will fall tomorrow, doesn't say morning or evening.
 
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