Day to Day Central QLD weather

.RC.

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Oct 3, 2020
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BOM three month outlook is atrocious for us. They have gone from constantly predicting good chances of greater then average for more months then I can remember and all we got was a drought. To now predicting poor chances of greater then average for the next three months.
 
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Vinny

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BOM still going for rain lol

upload_2021-4-4_17-32-2.png
 
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Rainbow Serpant

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Well that’s me signing off from this forum. It seems ridiculous to be on a weather forum discussing the weather when you live in an area that doesn’t actually get any ‘weather’.
My move to nsw can’t come soon enough. But sadly it’s been delayed a little bit.
Bye for now
 
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Vinny

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Maybe just discuss the weather in here not the main big thread?

Looking at OZForecast they seem to think return to gusty SE winds in a week and another 50mm next Tuesday.

You'll finally move to NSW and Rocky will get a flood ?
 
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RhysD

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Nov 25, 2020
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I saw that on radar Vinny wasn’t sure if it was actually rain or not. We had some showers overnight and this morning but has cleared for now. Still overcast though. Hope for some more before system fully clears :)

Really building over that strip of coastline
 
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Vinny

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Yeah this morning it was light and wasn't showing at all.

Really coming down moderately hard now !

I'm quite interested to know what is causing it , as the low is not near us?

Odd on the radar not raining north of Yeppoon.

Wind is S too ? Confusing...

If it sit there and didn't move we could get a fair bit of rain?
 
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MegaMatch

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Well that’s me signing off from this forum. It seems ridiculous to be on a weather forum discussing the weather when you live in an area that doesn’t actually get any ‘weather’.
My move to nsw can’t come soon enough. But sadly it’s been delayed a little bit.
Bye for now

Please don't leave.
 
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Vinny

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In some ways I want this cloud cover to go but in other ways at least it's keeping it from getting too hot.

I wish the humidity would drop it has dropped a little to 86 percent but it's taking a while...

Still going for 30deg in Rocky and it's 26 deg perhaps the cloud will break up soon.

How is it they have a reliable water supply for Rocky and Yeppoon gets a pipeline so has security but poor old Mt Morgan ends up with 9 percent ? Has it been this low before? Better pray for a miracle that they get something before 2021 is out or they could end up like Stanthorpe (Ithink it was ?) where they truck in water day after day.

Tipped out 82mm , a little more than what Yeppoon got.
 

Flowin

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I think CQ and WBB deserves some focused and well resourced weather and climate research.
I try to follow relevant research topics and scan some of the speculative research topics.
It seems to me that much of the research goes to capital city areas and Murray Darling basin which is quite ignorant of how much contribution to society and economy also comes from Fitzroy and Burnett Basins and the coastal strips as well north of the Sunshine Coast.
I agree with some of the comments from folk in this area about ENSO expectations don’t seem right or are not consistent with what actually happens - but I don’t agree that it is the complete opposite to “expectations of ENSO” either.

I recall someone from former WZ forums from this region I think from around Hervey Bay or somewhere with name something like “coldfront” or similar that posted regularly that I always enjoyed reading his posts even if it sometimes upset others.

Anyway just wanted to say that others outside your region do care. And I am glad this thread has got a bit more activity now because the voice of this region needs to be heard.
There is a need to seriously understand weather and climate trends for this region. It may be that this region is one of the more notable signals of climate change like south west WA.
 

.RC.

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21mm here in the past 24 hrs. Good rain in the callide valley as well, around 20-40mm. 96mm at westwood.

I see Brisbane/Gold Coast still getting so much rain it makes our falls totally insignificant.
 

glenesk

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Nov 13, 2019
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28mm total for this event here in Esk. Look where we are and what's been going on around us.
I feel for you all when I constantly witness all the rain avoid this area aswell. This is not an isolated event, it been happening for some time.
 

Vinny

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I came here in 2011 late 2011, and 2011,12,13,14, 15 ,16 and 17 were not from memory terrible dry years in Rocky.

But from 2017? Since Debbie? Rocky has been missing big rain events in summer i think?
 
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MegaMatch

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The concern for me was just how late in the season it took for even the slightest change in weather patterns to begin to happen. Up until mid-March, there was nothing, then when we finally did start seeing some rain, the season was almost over anyway. It's scary to think if it could get any worse. I used to really look forward to summer but not so much anymore in fear that it just ends up like 16/17, 19/20, 20/21.
 

Michael Hauber

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Looking at trends in rainfall, shorter trends show no difference between central Qld and further south. Some such as 1980 to now even suggest central Qld is doing better:

1980 trend.PNG


However a trend over the full period from 1900 shows that there are two main areas of decline frequently discussed as being due to climate change - SW and SE Australia. And there is another area running over central Qld. The decrease is slow - less than 10mm/ year every decade, so I would not expect it to be noticeable over a few decades. Unless there is some threshold effect and a step change which was triggered recently. One thought I've had is that a weakening of the polar - equatorial temp gradient may allow an intensification of the Quidge/SW Pacific troughing pattern. AGW is generally weakening this gradient but up to sometime about a decade or so ago Ozone depletion had been tightening the Antarctic polar vortex possibly masking this trend which has only recently become apparent (but note the 1980 to now trend)

1900.PNG


Source: BOM climate tracker maps

On ENSO and central Qld rainfall, general correlations show that central Qld is influenced similar to most of eastern Australia:

corr soi.PNG


There is variation over time with poor correlations over certain time periods which correlate to +ve phases of the PDO (or IPO as the source research discusses)

corr soi decadal.PNG


Source is On the remote drivers of rainfall variability in Australia Risbey et al
 

Flowin

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Looking at trends in rainfall, shorter trends show no difference between central Qld and further south. Some such as 1980 to now even suggest central Qld is doing better:

1980 trend.PNG


However a trend over the full period from 1900 shows that there are two main areas of decline frequently discussed as being due to climate change - SW and SE Australia. And there is another area running over central Qld. The decrease is slow - less than 10mm/ year every decade, so I would not expect it to be noticeable over a few decades. Unless there is some threshold effect and a step change which was triggered recently. One thought I've had is that a weakening of the polar - equatorial temp gradient may allow an intensification of the Quidge/SW Pacific troughing pattern. AGW is generally weakening this gradient but up to sometime about a decade or so ago Ozone depletion had been tightening the Antarctic polar vortex possibly masking this trend which has only recently become apparent (but note the 1980 to now trend)

1900.PNG


Source: BOM climate tracker maps

On ENSO and central Qld rainfall, general correlations show that central Qld is influenced similar to most of eastern Australia:

corr soi.PNG


There is variation over time with poor correlations over certain time periods which correlate to +ve phases of the PDO (or IPO as the source research discusses)

corr soi decadal.PNG


Source is On the remote drivers of rainfall variability in Australia Risbey et al
Mike I am not surprised by that when the analysis is for total rainfall trend.
I think that with the general 'expectation' of climate change (very general) for more severe dry periods and also more extreme wet events when they do occur that the net effect on totals may not be that evident.
A sort of masking effect - not strongly evident on the overall total of rainfall.
But when it comes to potential change in rainfall patterns with climate change some of the work of Conrad Wasko and others suggests rainfall patterns becoming more concentrated in time and space.
For the temporal aspect I have done some limited analysis of point gauge rainfall data (locally here in SEQ not in WBB) with a focus on trends in the number of rain days exceeding 25 mm, and number of months in year that exceed long term median rainfall for each month and for these limited analysis a more distinct trend appears to be evident. Those type of analyses are not easy to do with gridded rainfall to understand spatial variations across a region or continent (need a lot of computer grunt power and clever scripting skills beyond my capability), but if were possible to look at that it way it may yield some more notable findings.
 

Vinny

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I detect a change in the seasons evident by Monday (is that from the cold blast down south sending us dryer air?) Below Yeppoon on Monday though the Meteye has Friday- Sunday afternoon with dew points of 13-15 deg , which is dryish for here.

upload_2021-4-8_9-29-57.png
 
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Tsunami

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The concern for me was just how late in the season it took for even the slightest change in weather patterns to begin to happen. Up until mid-March, there was nothing, then when we finally did start seeing some rain, the season was almost over anyway. It's scary to think if it could get any worse. I used to really look forward to summer but not so much anymore in fear that it just ends up like 16/17, 19/20, 20/21.
Hey mega, can i send you a PM
 
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one drop

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nothing in this pattern is "unprecedented" even with the elephant in the room. we live in the "horse latitudes" sometimes interesting. but generally boring still weather.
imo the elephant just exacerbates our existing shit pattern.
 

RhysD

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Nov 25, 2020
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We missed out on any rainfall, was hoping it would back build a little however it didn’t. Looking forward to some cooler mornings/days
 
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Vinny

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https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news...ite-la-nia-drenching-much-of-australia/533889


Wide Bay Burnett remains desperately dry despite La Niña drenching much of Australia
Sunday April 11, 2021 - 20:49 EST

It is a map that tells an encouraging story for most of Australia but a cruel tale for an unlucky few.


Apart from a few pockets in WA and Tasmania, Queensland's Wide Bay Burnett is the national standout when it comes to severe rainfall deficiency ? rainfall within the lowest 5 per cent of records for the period ? after La Niña finally delivered downpours across March and into April.


The region presents a stark contrast in the Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) latest drought statement, which said deficiencies in rainfall had otherwise been "substantially reduced" over the past month.


Under the dome?


BOM senior climatologist Greg Browning said the lack of rain in the Wide Bay was "a case of bad luck as much as anything".


"There's been a band across coastal Queensland, and the Wide Bay seems to be right in the middle of it all, they just haven't reaped the rewards of this wet summer that has been seen across most of Australia," he said.


"On top of longer-term rainfall deficiencies and drought situations, it probably seems like you've just missed out on this whole La Niña thing for the last six months.


"The majority of rain along that part of the coast will come from the east, so you've got a good moisture source with the water there."


Mr Browning said it was "highly unlikely" that topography played a part, highlighting the heavy rain and flooding that occurred across the region in comparable La Niña conditions in 2010 and 2012.


"Having an anecdotal discussion with forecasters, it seems like the weather systems just haven't been playing ball with that part of Queensland, and the rain's been falling further offshore than what it might in a normal year," he said.


"A lot of south-east Queensland has seen a decreasing rainfall trend in recent decades and that does extend up to the Wide Bay."


Farmers feel the frustration


Coalstoun Lakes dairy farmer Robbie Radel said while the past six weeks had brought badly needed rain to the North Burnett, it still was not enough.


"A lot of people are disappointed that break didn't come earlier and that when it did come, it hasn't been as good or as big as we were possibly expecting or certainly hoping for," he said.


"That's backed up by the new map BOM has released."


Mr Radel said he did not buy into the "dome" theory sometimes raised when a region missed out on rain, "but you do get that feeling".


"It's very frustrating to know there's big rain just to the north or just to the south, and occasionally just to the west.


"That dome, or the umbrella as it's often referred to, certainly seemed to go up over the Wide Bay here."


On the Radel property the paddocks are "beautiful" and lush.


Mr Radel described it as "marginally better than a green drought" ? a term often used to describe growth that appears promising but ultimately holds little long-term productivity.


"Even though it's quite green and everything looks well, there certainly hasn't been the run-off rain [needed]," he said.


"There's a lot of creeks and rivers throughout the Wide Bay Burnett that normally get a very good flush and quite often flood during the wetter months of the year.


"There's quite a few of those that haven't had a run in them yet.


"A lot of people will go into winter with a bit of green feed in the paddock but they won't have any groundwater."


Ongoing dry points to climate change


Large parts of Australia have been in rainfall deficiency since 2017, but it is not just a recent problem.


The latest BOM drought statement noted parts of south-west, south-east and eastern Australia had seen "substantial declines in cool-season rainfall in recent decades".


It pointed to climate change as a factor, with the bureau's State Of The Climate 2020 report declaring April to October rainfall had dropped by 12 per cent across Australia's south-east since the late 1990s.


The report stated, for Queensland, the latest La Niña downpours meant "shorter-term deficits have eased but multi-year rainfall deficits persist".


In other words, the dry is not over yet for many parts of Australia.


"Deficiencies for the periods January 2017 to present and January 2018 to present still exist over very large parts of the country," the BOM said.


"More rainfall is needed over an extended period to continue the recovery from the extended dry conditions of 2017 to 2019."
 

Flowin

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and the map....
3b78bc30e4cf1303f3072d0671b51272.jpeg
The deficiencies are also evident in simulated catchment scale runoff on the BoM AWRA-L model with all River and significant Creek catchments from Maryborough to Gladstone not having a notable flow event since 2017. Also notable that Mary River and Burnett River flow events in 2017 were not that great either and the most recent significant flows in those rivers was in 2013.

The statistics and randomness of nature and weather could suggest that wet periods will return.... but only time will tell when that happens. Hopefully sooner rather than later.
But with a changing climate one also needs to be cautious about expecting past “statistics” to be a guide for return to “normal” whatever that may be.

Graphs below from BOM AWRA model - simulated monthly catchment runoff in millimetres


D3E50648-4504-4F21-8242-BAE533B1273D.jpeg
AFB32463-3293-49FB-BACD-800F936D62BF.jpeg
22186246-3866-43C4-AEF8-B00A0AA84D85.jpeg
B1BD8454-3E00-4F1A-AAEF-D466B9E791D2.jpeg
66FF6493-3741-4D41-97FC-CDCA29EF0FCB.jpeg
FF9BA8A1-0D3E-4274-9082-05E5A520ACB7.jpeg
1FDBE601-7F52-4CC5-8754-048AD013B110.jpeg
 

Dipole

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Oddly enough there is plenty of surface water pooling beside the road between Hervey Bay and Gympie. I feared being stranded in Brisbane over Easter due to flooding in Gympie/Maryborough, glad for all that it did not eventuate.
 
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Vinny

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I see both OCF and GFS seem to be going for around 40mm of rain in Yeppoon and about 26mm in Rockhampton next Thursday or Wednesday with temperatures well below average for the day, 21 deg Yeppoon and only 18 deg in Rocky ! Any idea of the weather system that could cause this? Seems quite cool rather than warm?

May not even happen but interesting to see it there.
 

.RC.

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Be nice if that single forecast for the 23rd-24th comes off. 50-100mm would go down well about now.
 
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Vinny

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Be nice if that single forecast for the 23rd-24th comes off. 50-100mm would go down well about now.
If the current GFS is even close to true we are in for a heap of rain in the next week up to 104mm lol . hmmm maybe something but not that much . Even has Rocky on about 96mm with a max temp of only 18 deg on Friday
 
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