Discussion topic about floods and forecasts.I will also add if people want to discuss the floods matter I will start a new thread, as I don’t think this thread should be clogged with that.
In the sub tropics particularly say in domain of the NE/NSW SEQ thread our weather is diverse.
We get summer rains typically, but not regularly.
We can sometimes get the monsoon influence but not regularly, we can sometimes get ex TCs but not often actual TC strength, we can get ECLs, we get troughs moving through some with moisture feed from tropics, others with driving influence from south.
Difficult rain forecasting for our region because we are on the edge.
Then our floods are also diverse. Big floods in the record are notably January or summer, but if you dig deeper in the records you also find floods in all months, and some like June 1893 and 1983, May 1996 and many other winter ECLs.
We also gets floods in some rivers and not the next to it. How many people know of the jan 1947 floods ( yes I mean 1947, not 1974 ) Brisbane river no flood, Logan river just to the south it was epic flood.
Forward to now today we got the 2011 floods class action decision - which said - forecasts should have been used.
I have already made comments here <a href="https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/ne-nsw-se-qld-weather.85082/page-58#post-4106314">NE NSW / SE QLD weather</a>
It ain’t easy for our region. Meanwhile in early 2019, the Brisbane River Floodplain Management Strategy was released. It identified flood damages if averaged between no flood years and flood years are $300 million per year in Brisbane and Ipswich floodplains. Many years no flood, then once in a while a multi billion dollar flood. That will only get worse with climate change.
Forecasts are only one part of the picture but a very important one in among the mix of other things like building better resilience.
So that’s the theme for this thread- May the discussion live a long time cos it is not a problem we can forget, even if in 2019 we are in drought.