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Predictions Clipper Saturday 11th April

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Apr 8, 2020.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Deterministic and ensembles have both been cautious here, but we're starting to see general agreement of a clipper system for SE Aus Saturday PM.
    LWT continues to have good amplitude in our region.

    The window for snow on the peaks is midday Saturday (Vic) and midnight (NSW).

    Dusting with a remote chance of 3-5cm at best IMO.
    Positively, the upper level cold air looks to pass up the East Coast which is likely to contribute to more 'East of the Divide' onshore flow and showers.

    EC:
    [​IMG]

    The Canadian:
    [​IMG]
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Why not aye? Great isolation observation weather...

    GFS/NCEP blocking patterns offering jetstream assistance:
    [​IMG]
     
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  3. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Coastal Victoria and southern Alps should get plenty precipitation
     
  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I agree. The atmosphere has plenty of moisture in it at the moment and so do the fronts crossing us.
     
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  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks pretty moist.

    And cold.

    And the precipitation recently has often upgraded in the days leading up to the rainfall.
     
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  6. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've had rainfall recorded at my place every day this month for a total for 120mm. I'll bank on their being at least as much fall as the models are predicting.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah, the major models have been conservatively progging. AXS-R/C has been particularly on the ball with precip in recent weeks IMO.
    Looking forward to it entering the scope on today's run.
     
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  8. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    our region (coastal Victoria Otways, and south and west Gippsland) really was the only spot that dodged the big drought of the last few years on the whole eastern seaboard.
    I've had most Peninsula customers irrigation systems off since February.
    Manually switched on once before the last rain and that's it.
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    OCF for Saturday.
    SE Corner/Gippsland special.
     
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  10. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    350mm + YTD for us here in West Gippsland
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS pointing to occasional snow down to ~1400m Saturday midday (NSW MR).
    FL somewhere around 1800m so much like last weekend's system it'll be marginal until we see that lowering 850mb component and overarching 500mb sweet spot.
    [​IMG]

    Whist EC has it slightly warmer at the same forecast sounding location, with snow perhaps down to ~1500m after midday, and temps still marginal below 1900m until about 6/7pm for NSW's Main Range.
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC's -27ºC at 500mb, 4pm Saturday arvo over the MR is quite impressive. It's a shame the mid-levels are dry as dead dingos...
     
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  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC holding firm with a strong cold node, albeit sliding under the continent. Decent cold uppers over the Alps as noted.


    Totals looking more like around the 5-10cm mark, with ~5cm for the resorts give or take a few cms, with some potential for up to around 10cm on some peaks.


     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still marginal temps for accumulations below 1900m for me.
    Dusting at best below 1900m, perhaps a coupla cms above by Saturday midnight IMO.
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Front reaching NE NSW/SE QLD
    [​IMG]
     
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  16. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like its going to run up the coast..
    Cool blast
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Watch the towers grow from Bald Hill lookout.
     
  18. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    "can't travel"
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    One foot in front of the other puts you in the exercise exception.

    OCF Saturday 10am to Sunday 10am, most of which will fall Saturday, during the day (rain).
     
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  20. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon this change will be just as "good' as the last...
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    30-50mm along the GDR?
     
  22. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    snow wise
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If it's one step away from the blistering hot, smokey summer conditions, I'll keep posting them just for you mate!
     
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  24. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    *april
     
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  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  26. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Obs thread?
     
  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Observations thread is up.
     
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  29. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still a little snow around after the last system, hopefully this on will give us a bit more rain.
     
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  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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