NSW/ACT Cold Front and ECL - August 23-25

Billy Bob

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Nov 23, 2020
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A pity nobody can get up there at the moment. The bloke who usually covers every snowfall on the OP is stuck in Blackheath. I would go up but it's a little too far out of my own LGA. There is someone from Black Springs on another forum, though.
 

Snowmaker7

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Yeah at least, I think even 25-30cm is quite possible.

GFS is still on drugs with 50-60cm snow accumulation for the next 3 days.

This is an incredible resource/database for snow outside of the snowy mountains areas of New South Wales. I'm sure it was put together by an old Weatherzone contributor whose name has lost me, @Wavey you may know?

To find the last 30cm fall for the Oberon area you have to go all the way back to 1960. IMO, accumulations exceeding that are very possible in the usual areas such as Black Springs, or maybe further on the eastern side around Mt Trickett.

I certainly wouldn't put the likes of Crookwell out of the question for an extraordinary fall. Temps there should be cold enough from ~10am tomorrow, whereby AXS-C has 40mm of rain falling after this time.
 
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Billy Bob

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That's Blizzard; he mostly runs his Twitter page and related subscriber page now.

Crookwell is tempting, but I've been let down there in the past...

There is a big difference between 1100 m (Oberon town) and Black Springs (1250 m) during most snow events. The snowline on the CTs is creeping steadily higher. In most events these days you need to be above 1200 m for any significant settling ; this event could be one of the rare exceptions.
 

Wavey

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That's Blizzard; he mostly runs his Twitter page and related subscriber page now.

Crookwell is tempting, but I've been let down there in the past...

There is a big difference between 1100 m (Oberon town) and Black Springs (1250 m) during most snow events. The snowline on the CTs is creeping steadily higher. In most events these days you need to be above 1200 m for any significant settling ; this event could be one of the rare exceptions.
Definitely a lot of potential for latent heat absorption with the heavy precip too which would lower the snow levels.

That snow site is a great resource, I think a lot of the obs come from one of Blizz's BM snow friends as well
 
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Wavey

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To find the last 30cm fall for the Oberon area you have to go all the way back to 1960. IMO, accumulations exceeding that are very possible in the usual areas such as Black Springs, or maybe further on the eastern side around Mt Trickett.

I certainly wouldn't put the likes of Crookwell out of the question for an extraordinary fall. Temps there should be cold enough from ~10am tomorrow, whereby AXS-C has 40mm of rain falling after this time.
Yeah Mt Trickett will be bullseye for the biggest totals IMO, although unlikely to be confirmed.
 

Homer

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I know this system is going to ramp up overnight/tomorrow, but geez, it's been lame so far here.
Some good winds at work today on the odd occasion, but that's about it. Couple of drops of rain as well late this arvo.

Watching the incoming radar for some excitement.

Currently a warm 15.8 degrees and it has been completely calm here since sunset.
One would not believe tomorrow's forecast if observing outside at present.
 

Edge72

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Apr 3, 2020
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Wow that big storm Sydney was meant to get between 7-10pm tonight was a ripper !! *massive eyeroll
 

Steve777

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Good falls across a wide area of the State overnight, especially in the Central West, Tablelands and the coast South of Sydney with many falls 25-50 mm, some over 50.

B3DD76FC-CF64-4029-8E6E-37AB6F290A7A.png


About 15-25 mm across Sydney so far.
 

Winterwolf

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Jun 2, 2019
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Temps dropping with rainfall increasing in Wollongong. My weather station says 9.3
Was 10.6 at 6am

All day heater day i feel.
A damp 4.5 in Bowral, higher than the 3 that was forecast.
Models suggest a bit of wet snow in the early hours of tomorrow
 
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Snowmaker7

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A damp 4.5 in Bowral, higher than the 3 that was forecast.
Models suggest a bit of wet snow in the early hours of tomorrow
Yep all wet here, best chance now will be in the early hours of tomorrow imo. Although a PWS halfway up the gib is sitting on 3, not without a chance of a sleety mix this morning at the top
 
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Lady Penelope

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Chilly morning (4 degrees) in Canberra after the spring-like conditions of the past week or so. 18mm in my rain gauge since the rain started yesterday afternoon. Heater day for me too.
 
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Winterwolf

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Seems to be a cold pool sitting over the BMs - Mount Boyce has slumped to 0.9 - must be wet snow there now. A little further east High Range has slid to 2.9. Steady at 4.4 in Bowral. Hopefully that cold patch will drift a little east.
 
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Donza

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Yep all wet here, best chance now will be in the early hours of tomorrow imo. Although a PWS halfway up the gib is sitting on 3, not without a chance of a sleety mix this morning at the top
I don't see much chance on AXS-C at all.

To be honest. The latest AXS-C is a bit underwhelming for snow.
 
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POW Hungry

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Seems to be a cold pool sitting over the BMs - Mount Boyce has slumped to 0.9 - must be wet snow there now. A little further east High Range has slid to 2.9. Steady at 4.4 in Bowral. Hopefully that cold patch will drift a little east.
Upper level cold pool curtailing the BMs. It will be lingering all day.
At least -20°C is required.
10am AXS-C
Screen Shot 2021-08-24 at 8.38.35 am.png
 

Snowmaker7

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I don't see much chance on AXS-C at all.

To be honest. The latest AXS-C is a bit underwhelming for snow.
Yep I agree if going off AXS-C

Although if AXS-C was to be relied on right now it shouldnt be as cold as it is in some places ie. High Range 2.9, and it certainly shouldn't be snowing in Blackheath. I think they sometimes struggle with temps
 

Billy Bob

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I can't see it snowing at either Bungendore or the Southern Highlands. Definitely no snow here as the cold pool will be too far north. Temp will bottom out around 2-3C tomorrow morning again with little or no precip. Just cold and windy I think, for tomorrow.

Temp bottomed out at 3C this morning here, pretty much in line with model expectations. There would be a nice covering at Parker's Gap (1200 m) near Captains Flat I reckon, with very heavy precip down that way. Temp would be between 0 and 1 at that elevation at a guess. Now it is slowly warming and winds from the south are picking up, as the ECL forms and the cold air drifts north. Over to you, CTs.

Handy drop down here as well with over 50 mm at Braidwood and probably more to come for them as well. Lighter falls (20 mm) for this side of the range. I don't want any more than that as I don't want to get flooded in.
 
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Westerly Wind

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Jul 12, 2019
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Our local newspaper in Orange is reporting a “small” tornado caused damage to homes and cars in Orange. ABC news had just reported on tv as a “mini” tornado… oh dear!
I hope all those affected are ok.
I heard a roar early last night but did not see Toto whirling around !
Good to hear of reports of snow on eastern side of the Tablelands.
 

Donza

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Our local newspaper in Orange is reporting a “small” tornado caused damage to homes and cars in Orange. ABC news had just reported on tv as a “mini” tornado… oh dear!
I hope all those affected are ok.
I heard a roar early last night but did not see Toto whirling around !
Good to hear of reports of snow on eastern side of the Tablelands.
I hate the phrase "mini tornado"
 

Principal Douglas

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Our local newspaper in Orange is reporting a “small” tornado caused damage to homes and cars in Orange. ABC news had just reported on tv as a “mini” tornado… oh dear!
I hope all those affected are ok.
I heard a roar early last night but did not see Toto whirling around !
Good to hear of reports of snow on eastern side of the Tablelands.
Whaaaaa? On the north side we had rain and some sporadic lightning but nothing major like that :emoji_astonished:
 
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Mcbobbings

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Jul 10, 2019
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Macquarie Park NSW
Considering nobody can get to any snow, unless they are within 5km of it, I am choosing to be happy about the rain in Sydney. The 32.6mm to 9am at OH is the wettest day since March. A lot of brown grass starting to appear in the last 3 weeks will now go nice and green.
 
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