Hi all and thanks for welcoming us over from weatherzone. Continuing on from discussions in weatherzone. Borderline warm neutral/el nino status ongoing since last spring. Event is strong enough to be classified as el nino by US standards, but not according to somewhat stricter Australian BOM standards. The event is more of a modoki event than an east based event.The event has weakened somewhat early this year, which is typical of all ENSO events, and it is unclear whether the event will hold on, intensify or weaken further. On the surface ocean temps have been cooling in the far east, however near the dateline the warm water seems to be holding on. A new westerly wind burst is starting which is likely to contribute to further warming. The subsurface is continuing to cool. Many ENSO watchers, and BOM believe that the cooling on the subsurface will have a cooling impact and move ENSO conditions towards a true neutral later in the year. However it is quite common in multi-year el nino/warm neutral events for the subsurface to cool to such levels. What is more unusual is the lack of subsurface warming following the last westerly wind burst in May.