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Technical Current & Forecast Climate Drivers

Discussion in 'Systems & Severe' started by Michael Hauber, Jul 4, 2019.

  1. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    Hi all and thanks for welcoming us over from weatherzone. Continuing on from discussions in weatherzone.

    Borderline warm neutral/el nino status ongoing since last spring. Event is strong enough to be classified as el nino by US standards, but not according to somewhat stricter Australian BOM standards. The event is more of a modoki event than an east based event.The event has weakened somewhat early this year, which is typical of all ENSO events, and it is unclear whether the event will hold on, intensify or weaken further.

    On the surface ocean temps have been cooling in the far east, however near the dateline the warm water seems to be holding on. A new westerly wind burst is starting which is likely to contribute to further warming.



    The subsurface is continuing to cool. Many ENSO watchers, and BOM believe that the cooling on the subsurface will have a cooling impact and move ENSO conditions towards a true neutral later in the year. However it is quite common in multi-year el nino/warm neutral events for the subsurface to cool to such levels. What is more unusual is the lack of subsurface warming following the last westerly wind burst in May.

     
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  2. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    Hi Mike. Well done for kicking off an ENSO thread. It took me less than 5 min to register.
    I will be reading your updates.
    I can only add. There has been a low pressure anomaly at longitude 160-170e in the coral sea for much of autumn and now winter. The surface pressure isobars have been dipping as far south as NZ and their has even been cross equatorial flow info that region spawning multiple tropical lows.
    regards.for a new beginning
     
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  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice job @Michael Hauber.
    Glad to see some sort of reiteration of the WZ Climate Driver thread.

    Looks like a WWB in the Western Pacific is coming our way.


    Interesting to see the atmospheric Nino conditions that have occurred over the past six months or so have finally weakened to neutral. Indicated by the AAM, looking at momentum.

     
  4. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    I find Mike Ventrice a good source of seasonal and sub-seasonal info.
     
  5. Kino

    Kino Early Days

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    @Richard wondering if this thread can be re-named as there are multiple climate drivers for us (ENSO, IOD, AAO for e.g.) and it could be stickied?
     
  6. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    you can also tag @Claude Cat , @Kletterer and @Sandy

    They all have the big stick power
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Sure - what would you like it to be called?
     
  8. Sbooker

    Sbooker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    For observers of this thread that are complete drongos like me could you dumb it down a lot every now and then to explain what this means from weather on the east coast of Oz in coming seasons (this spring and summer)?
    Thanks.
     
  9. Kino

    Kino Early Days

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    Current & Forecast Climate Drivers
     
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  10. Kino

    Kino Early Days

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  11. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I recognise what this thread is seeking to discuss from the similar theme on former WZ.
    But I do struggle (and always have) with the concept of “climate driver”. We don’t fully know the full climate system response so we don’t fully know the driver. I would be more easily able to assimilate to the thread if it were titled with climate “signal” or “behaviour”.
     
  12. Kino

    Kino Early Days

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    Signal or behaviour are even more subjective than driver...IMO. Clearly as the last 2 years has shown here in Aus, there’s more to our clime than ENSO, especially when we consider the multi ENSO stage drought that’s crippling inland areas. I read today that wool is at its lowest production levels for 100 years :(

    Side note, that drop in 3.4 is impressive...is a Nina in the cards? If so, it better be a deep fully fledged system and none of the wishy washy rubbish of late.
     
  13. bd7

    bd7 Hard Yards

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    agree with you flowin and kino but maybe leave as is we all understand the general guidance of topic
     
  14. bd7

    bd7 Hard Yards

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    I would agree that there are more climate drivers expected Flowin than currently known, therefore they are all,currently known and future to be discovered, covered by the heading actually
     
  15. bd7

    bd7 Hard Yards

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  16. bd7

    bd7 Hard Yards

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    Issued 9 July 2019


    The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.



    Positive Indian Ocean Dipole likely to be dominant Australian climate influence


    ENSO Outlook

    Our ENSO Outlook provides
    up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.

    [​IMG]

    Current status: INACTIVE

    The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña. While the possibility of El Niño can't be completely ruled out for 2019, the tropical Pacific Ocean is expected to remain in an ENSO-neutral phase over the coming months, meaning the ENSO Outlook remains at INACTIVE. Model outlooks indicate a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to be the dominant climate driver for Australia's weather for much of the rest of 2019, meaning an increased likelihood of a drier than average winter–spring.

    Most indicators of ENSO are neutral. Tropical Pacific sea surface and sub-surface temperatures remain slightly warmer than average, but in the neutral range. Atmospheric indicators, such as cloudiness near the Date Line and trade winds, have been close to average, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is the only ENSO indicator that has continued to hover close to El Niño thresholds.

    Climate models indicate the tropical Pacific will maintain an ENSO-neutral state through the austral winter and spring.

    While the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been neutral in recent weeks, the broader Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and atmospheric patterns remain generally consistent with a positive IOD. This means the influence upon Australia is likely to remain.

    Climate models forecast positive IOD conditions for the remainder of the austral winter and spring. Typically, a positive IOD brings below average winter–spring rainfall, above average temperatures, and an earlier start to the fire season for southern and central Australia.
     
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  17. bd7

    bd7 Hard Yards

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    This would have to be one of the worst cold water around Australia SST charts I have seen, for approaching Spring... that is for rainfall anyway!
     
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  18. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    Modoki el nino conditions continue with a further WWB, and the warm waters near the dateline showing little signs of weakening.



    The subsurface, while still on the cooler side is showing signs of responding. Early indications are of a stronger warm Kelvin wave than for the previous WWB, even though the current WWB seems overall weaker.


    The MJO is about to enter the La Nina friendly Indian Ocean zones, but is generally looking very weak. The current WWB should likely wind down, however short term forecasts suggest weak westerly anomalies for the forecast period.



    Sea level patterns show a strong high pressure throughout the South Pacific. This would be trying to boost the trade winds, but it seems that lower pressure in the north Pacific is winning out. Substantial high pressure anomalies over Australia reflect a substantial el nino atmospheric influence.



    Model forecasts continue to suggest cooling in the east, including nino 3.4, but tend to forecast little or no cooling over nino 4 regions. With a substantial warm pool in place on the dateline I would normally be expecting the warmth to amplify through this time of year, but no models are currently forecasting this.
     
  19. bd7

    bd7 Hard Yards

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    The colder than normal water over the north Australian and Indonesian Area and into the east Indian Ocean are dominating
    the ocean SST and pressure patterns...interesting how we have a warm area SW to NE from the equator to Alaska, and a contrasting NW to SE from the equator to the Australian Bight Area. Can't say that that looks particularly promising for inland Australian areas for any break to the drought in the near future.
     
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  20. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    Its a combination of the cool waters to the north of Australia and the warm waters in the Pacific which move tropical convection away from Australia into the Central Pacific.
     
  21. Kino

    Kino Early Days

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    There is no Modoki or Modoki like conditions. The ENSO state is warm-neutral at best. The drivers for Aus at present are the +IOD and the -AAO.
     
  22. bd7

    bd7 Hard Yards

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    Yes, while the warm water out in the Pacific does not help much, the dominant feature is the cold water over and to the W and NW of Australia and near Indonesia that is dominating inland Australian weather with little or no NW Cloud-bands
     
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  23. Kino

    Kino Early Days

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    Can just imagine what a -IOD + a -AAO could mean for us right now - bet it would be wild, wintry and wet.
     
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  24. bd7

    bd7 Hard Yards

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    Like 1992 maybe SST wise, with lots of snow as well from memory
     
  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    SSTAs in the Eastern Indian look too warm for this year.
    Key influencer to current weather.
     
  26. bd7

    bd7 Hard Yards

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    That was 1992s here is todays cold very cold in eastern Indian Ocean!
     
  27. snowbarbie

    snowbarbie Hard Yards

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    ....the drivers behind the drivers then....sam is forecast to swing back tother way
     
  28. bd7

    bd7 Hard Yards

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    JB I was meaning an answer to Kino on what the situation would be like with a -Dipole and -SAM...ie that it would be like 1992, not that this year was anything like 1992, but I maybe did not make myself clear enough.
    The real drivers behind the SAM, Dipole, ENSO are not found in any publication at present but are likely to be solar, magnetic, , gas, volcanic and ocean current induced imo anyway
     
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  29. Kino

    Kino Early Days

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    The drivers behind the drivers....an interesting topic indeed. Side bar - note that Townsville & Mackay recorded 3 nights sub 8c which is a first in 12 years and Mackay in 17 years or so I saw from WeatherWatch.

    Also western Europe is staggering through record cold in Summer, with Slovakia recording it's coldest ever min & max temps.
     
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  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Volcanoes can have a large impact, but it needs to pump lots of gas into the stratosphere and upper troposphere to have that impact.
    Gas (eg. Ozone, etc) has an impact too.
    Solar also plays its part.
    As does the ocean currents, that are often factored into Atlantic SSTA forecasts, and to a lesser extent ENSO.

    I think of them as separate drivers though, interlinked with all the others.
     
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  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Understanding the extent of non linear interactions still has a fair way to go imo. Statistical significance of all Teleconnections remains ellusive. The SOM approach exhibits how much we were clutching at straws.
     
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  32. Kino

    Kino Early Days

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    Not so much anymore - 50/50 according to this - however the forecast has been pretty off the mark lately:

    [​IMG]
     
  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    June observation
     
  34. Kino

    Kino Early Days

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    HI - can you explain what that is showing? Cheers.
     
  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Percentage of days where 500 hPa heights anomolies- greater than 15m
    ( red) or less than 15 m (blue) were observed.
     
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  36. That plot above is stamped 2016 anoms.

    rtofs-waus-ocean_sst_c-3321600.png

     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Is there a 20 C Thermocline plot ?
     
  39. bd7

    bd7 Hard Yards

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    This is current one same as before one day la ter
     
  40. You will likely find one on the boms site.
     
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  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Im not convinced with a strong correlation between IOD to Australian snowfalls . Biggest recent IOD swings were 97,98,99. Spencers Creek snow measurements were similar in all 3 seasons. 1989 through to 92 also lacks correlation.
     
  42. color_newdisp_anomaly_80E_145E_25S_20N_ophi0.png




    color_newdisp_sst_80E_145E_25S_20N_ophi0.png Dont be confused by anom and actual sst.

     
  43. bd7

    bd7 Hard Yards

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    Yes, true, jw, however, the anomalies still upset the normal atmospheric balance in pressure, wind, humidity, cloudiness, rainfall, etc. when they vary from the mean and cause significant changes to Australian weather and rainfall in particular.
    And re snow seems to depend more on the SAM and colder southern sources so IOD would be less of a snow driver I would suspect, more of a rain driver for Australia.
     
  44. Kino

    Kino Early Days

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    I really detest the colours assigned in anomaly charts - take above for eg - 1c warmer is red while cooler is light green. Baloney
     
  45. bd7

    bd7 Hard Yards

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  46. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    ENSO dominates rainfall patterns for NSW and QLD, and IOD dominates South Australia. Rainfall in Victoria is a bit more mixed with a IOD maybe being more important than ENSO, depending on which research paper you read. However for SE Australia a blocking index seems to beat both ENSO and IOD. Blocking is the tendency of the long wave trough's to peak/park in various sectors of the Southern Ocean.

    https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2009MWR2861.1https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2009MWR2861.1]reference[/url]
     
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  47. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    Latest weekly readings of nino 4 are still over 0.7. If this continues for the rest of July that could make it the second or third highest July reading for nino 4 on record, with 97/98 reaching 0.76 and 15/16 at 1.05. The nino 4 index is not a perfect reflection of modoki, but with the modoki index published at Jamstec discontinued in November its the best index available (In November Jamstec modoki index showed the current event comfotably over el nino modoki threshold). Nino 4 during 2004 peaked at 0.82 and had only reached 0.49 in July.

    The current event is not only a modoki el nino, but a strong one.
     
  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Note that techniques used for partial correlation are still from 1980- 1989.
     
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  49. bd7

    bd7 Hard Yards

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    Dr Ummenhofer discovered the IOD was an even bigger factor than El Nino in driving long-term Australian droughts.

    "When you're looking at prolonged drought periods, particularly the millennium drought or the earlier droughts that Australia has experienced, it's actually more the Indian Ocean that is in an unusual state, particularly Indian Ocean Dipole events occurring in unusual numbers."

    Dr Ummenhofer's work on the IOD changed the way drought in Australia is understood and helped propel the climatologist to the top of her field.
     
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  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I wouldn’t call it very warm or strong.
    I think you are looking at the wrong place.
     
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