Technical Current & Forecast Climate Drivers

Craig B

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Feb 11, 2005
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Easterly wind anomalies forecast to kick up into the end of the month.

1626752541403.png
 
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William

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I really hope not, as i'd prefer not to have another drought this summer.
La Nina, as with the negative IOD, should produce wetter conditions overall. -veIOD more so in the cooler months and La Nina more in the warmer months. -veIOD more generally affects the west and south-east of the country, La Nina, tropics and east.
 

MegaMatch

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Jul 3, 2019
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Yes but us Central Queenslanders are still very sceptical as last year was forecast to be far wetter than normal from late winter through till late summer but instead we ended up with the exact opposite, which did nothing but contribute to one of the severest droughts in decades. We'll see if -IOD + La-Nina manages to deliver this year but we aren't holding our breath.
 
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snowbarbie

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Jul 6, 2019
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Yes but us Central Queenslanders are still very sceptical as last year was forecast to be far wetter than normal from late winter through till late summer but instead we ended up with the exact opposite, which did nothing but contribute to one of the severest droughts in decades. We'll see if -IOD + La-Nina manages to deliver this year but we aren't holding our breath.
2020080120210228.png


There is a bit of work been done looking into anomalous circulation affecting rainfall over Aus - depending on whether Nina is CP or EP type. CP tends to be much more favourable - I think 2020 would've been classified EP? Perhaps part of it?
 

Michael Hauber

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Jul 4, 2019
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The trade surge seems to have terminated the warming trend, and is definitely stronger than the last one in May.

surface 2021 07 29.png


However as the MJO enters the Pacific we are seeing quite a lot of westerly activity.

winds.PNG


I had previously commented on the extended range forecast suggesting most of the westerly wind burst looked like being pushed north away from the equator, with the help of the NE Pacific high. However the central south Pacific high has retreated south a fair way, with low pressure activity to its NE and NW. A string of weak low systems have also developed just north of the equator in the east Pacific, so the NE Pacific high, which has seemed to keep most of the tropical activity blocked to the NW Pacific hasn't been able to prevent some westerly activity along the equator.

SLP.png


See what happens when the MJO circles around next time into the La Nina friendly zones, but so far looks far from establishing a definite cooling trend.
 

snowbarbie

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Jul 6, 2019
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The trade surge seems to have terminated the warming trend, and is definitely stronger than the last one in May.

surface 2021 07 29.png


However as the MJO enters the Pacific we are seeing quite a lot of westerly activity.

winds.PNG


I had previously commented on the extended range forecast suggesting most of the westerly wind burst looked like being pushed north away from the equator, with the help of the NE Pacific high. However the central south Pacific high has retreated south a fair way, with low pressure activity to its NE and NW. A string of weak low systems have also developed just north of the equator in the east Pacific, so the NE Pacific high, which has seemed to keep most of the tropical activity blocked to the NW Pacific hasn't been able to prevent some westerly activity along the equator.

SLP.png


See what happens when the MJO circles around next time into the La Nina friendly zones, but so far looks far from establishing a definite cooling trend.
Hard to see how any lapse in trades at this stage could do more than maybe "bump" conditions to neutral - several kelvin waves in recent months have to beg the question as to how much warm water is left for any that occur now.
 
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