Impressive.Yep been two big back to back lows pushing up from the south-west the last week.
Making surf like this!
They have a few tropical storms up that way which could be cooling it.Dramatic cooling of the -PDO warm tongue off Japan in the last week.
Looks like the -PDO could be shifting back into a more neutral/positive phase.
Yeah high pressure setting up across the East and NZ. And then pushing in from the west next weekend.looks like we may be going into a strongly positive phase of SAM.
This is a really interesting read. Here's the paper on it:Interesting article on CNN about the SW Pacific SSTa anomalies: https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/26/world/blob-chile-megadrought-study-intl-hnk-scli-scn/index.html
I kinda get your drift but we've had prevailing neutral AAO/SAM throughout the Austral Winter.Once the SAM eases back to more neutral levels, we should see a good balance of shortwaves/longwaves off the westerly belt mixing with tropical influences favouring more cut off lows into later September and October.
I kinda get your drift but we've had prevailing neutral AAO/SAM throughout the Austral Winter.
I think that's been the catalyst for the aforementioned deficiencies TBH.
There's only be 2-3 decent swings of AAO all winter:
As do Access.I notice NOAA keep nino3.4 around -1.4 right till jan 22
Very interesting!If you’ve been wondering why you were skunked by rainfall last La Niña phase, last Spring; here’s your answer:
It’s no longer a secret that seasonal models (AXS S1) over-predicted warmer SST’s in the Northern Aus region and undercooked the MJO influence in equatorial IO.The austral spring climate of 2020 was characterised by the occurrence of La Niña, which is the most predictable climate driver of Australian springtime rainfall. Consistent with this La Niña, the Bureau of Meteorology’s dynamical sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast system, ACCESS-S1, made highly...www.nature.com