Impressive.Yep been two big back to back lows pushing up from the south-west the last week.
Making surf like this!
They have a few tropical storms up that way which could be cooling it.Dramatic cooling of the -PDO warm tongue off Japan in the last week.
Looks like the -PDO could be shifting back into a more neutral/positive phase.
Yeah high pressure setting up across the East and NZ. And then pushing in from the west next weekend.looks like we may be going into a strongly positive phase of SAM.
This is a really interesting read. Here's the paper on it:Interesting article on CNN about the SW Pacific SSTa anomalies: https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/26/world/blob-chile-megadrought-study-intl-hnk-scli-scn/index.html
I kinda get your drift but we've had prevailing neutral AAO/SAM throughout the Austral Winter.Once the SAM eases back to more neutral levels, we should see a good balance of shortwaves/longwaves off the westerly belt mixing with tropical influences favouring more cut off lows into later September and October.
I kinda get your drift but we've had prevailing neutral AAO/SAM throughout the Austral Winter.
I think that's been the catalyst for the aforementioned deficiencies TBH.
There's only be 2-3 decent swings of AAO all winter:
As do Access.I notice NOAA keep nino3.4 around -1.4 right till jan 22
Very interesting!If you’ve been wondering why you were skunked by rainfall last La Niña phase, last Spring; here’s your answer:
It’s no longer a secret that seasonal models (AXS S1) over-predicted warmer SST’s in the Northern Aus region and undercooked the MJO influence in equatorial IO.The austral spring climate of 2020 was characterised by the occurrence of La Niña, which is the most predictable climate driver of Australian springtime rainfall. Consistent with this La Niña, the Bureau of Meteorology’s dynamical sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast system, ACCESS-S1, made highly...www.nature.com
It will all depend on how much tropical activity occurs to the east of us (well at least for QLDers). We can't keep getting our easterlies getting cut up by lows/cyclones around Fiji and Vanuatu, if that pattern breaks could be a very big season.The SSTs around the north of Australia are boiling at the moment, could be a lively TC season.
What are you concerned about? Also that's a relative weak low. All still on track for the developing Nina.It has finally happened. Big low developed near French Polynesia causing pressures to plunge over Tahiti. Constant massive outbreaks of cold dry air pushing well north and huge highs over Australia keeping pressures high over Darwin, and eroding the above normal SST's. Hope this situation will come to an end soon. I always give it(assuming SOI does a plunge for a while) a month before really starting to become concerned.