Current & Forecast Climate Drivers

Onboard

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The not so subtle difference over 10 days
 
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Onboard

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May interest pow.

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GFS with a big burst of convention across indo eq. On this model its displaying the re-initiation of a mjo.
 

Michael Hauber

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All models show the MJO being slow moving through the Pacific for the next week or three. No models have it entering the Indian Ocean. The plume of convection shown by GFS is short lived and not associated with the MJO.

EMON_phase_51m_small.gif
 
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Onboard

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I have seen the mjo models as you have posted above.

GFS is short lived and not associated with the MJO.
Then explain what it is?. No answer means you dont know what the model shows. A quick answer would be good from you. Not from else where.
 

Mega

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Could help set-up the subsurface for a push toward Nino next year couldn't it, such a strong MJO pulse moving through phases 6 & 7 six months prior? Though a lot can happen between now and then and the more likely scenario would be neutral.
 
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Mega

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All models show the MJO being slow moving through the Pacific for the next week or three. No models have it entering the Indian Ocean. The plume of convection shown by GFS is short lived and not associated with the MJO.

EMON_phase_51m_small.gif
I just had a look at various models. JMA is trying to kill it off or weaken it substantially between now and xmas, the Canadian is also quite weak through phase 7 as well before killing it around Boxing Day. So I don't know about all models? Seems to be just ECMWF and CFS that want to keep it strong across phase 7?
 

Michael Hauber

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Could help set-up the subsurface for a push toward Nino next year couldn't it, such a strong MJO pulse moving through phases 6, 7 & 8 six months prior? Though a lot can happen between now and then and the more likely scenario would be neutral.
I'd say subsurface is already set up for a push towards el nino next year, but depends on what happens between now and then. Current forecasts aren't showing as much westerly activity as might be expected from that amount of MJO activity in the Pacific, and presumably existing SST patterns are acting somewhat to dampen this and push the westerly activity north and south of equator. However a really big westerly push might get rid of the warm pool in the west and if not supported by further westerly activity make it easier for a later trade surge (around Autumn) to set up a third year cool spell.
 

Michael Hauber

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I just had a look at various models. JMA is trying to kill it off or weaken it substantially between now and xmas, the Canadian is also quite weak through phase 7 as well before killing it around Boxing Day. So I don't know about all models? Seems to be just ECMWF and CFS that want to keep it strong across phase 7?

Canadian and JMA certainly weaken it, but like the other models the movement towards phase 7 is a bit on the slow side, and the MJO should still be in Pacific for at least the next 'week or three'. These models are slower with failure to reach phase 7 by the end of the two week forecast period, whereas GFS/CFS and EC do reach phase 7 right at the end of the two week period. Of course if the weakening continues then the MJO could shortcut through to Indian or Australian sectors without needing to pass through phases 7/8. Generally we are looking at minimum 3 to 4 weeks in Pacific. 3 weeks per 2 sectors would be 12 weeks for a complete cycle which is at the upper limit of what is described as the typical MJO cycle of 30-90 days.
 

Onboard

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Prolly need a wet suite to take a dip in the cpac on the equator.ROFL

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ROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFLROFL


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I could just cherry pick and post a unverified mjo plot with a big signal in 7 on it like the tribe does.
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But my thoughts are my own.
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Michael Hauber

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Cloudiness patterns in two la ninas:

First in 2010 (Oct to Dec) the dry conditions along the equator came a long way west reaching PNG. This dry area corresponds to the area of enhanced trades which blow moisture further west. Enhanced convection occurs along the equator through Indonesia and into the Indian. Enhanced rainfall then spreads to the SE giving east Australia plenty of rain.

2010 cloudiness.png


In 2007 SST indexes suggested a stronger la nina event. However cloudiness maps show a weaker response and the dry area in the Pacific does not come as far west. Rainfall in the 2007/08 event was much closer to average.

2007 cloudiness.png


This event has been curious with the dry area in the Pacific extending a long way west similar to 2010. However in 2010 enhanced cloudiness spread uninterrupted towards the SE. In contrast recently cloudiness has been near normal over the far north tropics.

90 day cloudiness.png


Enhanced rainfall outside the tropics is due to enhanced upper level trough activity, but it seems that we haven't been seeing the enhanced activity in the deep tropics that is typical of a La Nina. If this continues into summer there may be less rainfall than expected, particular in the tropics. Current activity in the far eastern Coral Sea is a concern, however this may improve when the MJO cycles back around.

Note also that a large amount of the enhanced rainfall during a la nina is during the formation period of winter and spring, especially outside of the tropics.
 
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Michael Hauber

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As the MJO has pushed into the Pacific it has pushed the easterly anomalies further east, however there has not been any significant surface cooling associated with this. Models also suggest that there have been substantial westerly anomalies in the far west, but unfortunately the western TAO buoys are not active to confirm this.

surface.png


Subsurface does reflect a significant build up of subsurface heat near the dateline.

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I would expect that a significant warm Kelvin wave is now underway. This is helped by the stronger than average gradient between above average subsurface warmth in the west and below average surface warmth in the east. I also think that the fact that the westerlies follow on from some strong easterlies will also be a substantial boost to this kelvin wave - pushing the water first one way and then the other.

Trade forecasts suggest further westerly anomalies in the next two weeks, and that the MJO will be slow moving in phase 7. The BOM MJO forecast suggests that the MJO will increase speed a fair bit in early January, but it will still likely be late January before MJO can start to build again in the Indian and potentially develop a new trade surge. This would be getting pretty late and time is rapidly running out for any further cooling before the inevitable decay phase early next year sets in.

mjo_rmm.daily.20211219.png
 
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Michael Hauber

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Big thing will be to watch what happens after this period. La Ninas pretty much always weaken from about this time of year anyway, although this will give the process a big kick start. A lot of back to back cool/la nina episodes happen with substantial warming during Autumn before cooling renews again winter/spring. I suspect key is what is happening off the equator and often la nina breakdown will leave a lot of cool water north and/or south of the equator which helps boost the subtropical ridges and generally strengthen trades. Currently NE Pacific looks quite warm and likely to favour el nino, whereas SE Pacific is still cool and likely to favour la nina. Currently SE Pacific looks to be a stronger cooling influence than NE Pacific, but a lot may change before the key Autumn period for setting up next season, but I believe NE Pacific matter more in Autumn and SE Pacific in Spring so North gets first turn.
 
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Mega

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You have been following enso and the tropics for years i know that.

And i do weight up your opinions without bias.

Not really sure about any peak just yet.

And all's good.
Just the vibe I'm getting from the pro mets now. Even Ventrice tweeted out something similar 10hrs ago.
 
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Onboard-V-2

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There is alot atm that just not adding up. Models in our region as you know are showing tc and a vigorous monsoon. What you would expect to see with the madden cell. CFS been solid with it.
 
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Michael Hauber

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Surface conditions measured by TAO buoy network seem to show a definite general warming trend throughout the Pacific. This is in contrast to satellite measurements, and the SST indexes reported by BOM, which suggest that temps have been close to flat or slow drop since about October. TAO can certainly have some issues with coverage, and whether the buoys happen to be in the cool or warm part of eddies when the eddies occur, but I wouldn't think that this could cause such a difference over that long a time period. Westerlies anomalies have likely been in the far west outside the region currently covered by TAO and have pushed further east to near the dateline just in the last few days to be picked up by the TAO network.


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These westerlies seem to have created a very strong warm kelvin wave. TAO now shows temps above 4 degrees near the dateline. This compares with temps peaking a bit above 5 degrees west of the dateline during the kelvin wave that set up the 97/98 el nino.

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Satellite measurements seem to support a significant warming near the dateline. The classic process for a big kelvin wave is warming near the dateline due to the direct impact of the westerlies, followed by warming in the far east in about two months time when the kelvin wave crosses. Currently the temp gradient in the far west is still favorable with warmest temps furthest west, but this has eased. One thing to watch for in the next few weeks is whether or not the current westerly period is able to reverse this temp gradient - if that happens then that would make further westerly activity more likely, whereas if the gradient stays in the current favorable direction it makes it a lot less likely.

MJO continues to be very slow moving, although it looks like it may move into the western hemisphere (Amercia/Africa) in the next couple weeks, or at least go very weak. Models still do not want to see any MJO action in the Indian for the next month. Eg BOM forecast below. If so that would be two months without the MJO in the la nina favorable Indian or Australian sectors. How long would this need to go for before we start thinking this is not just an unusual MJO cycle, but a larger scale shift?

mjo bom.png


There has been a change in the general atmoshperic pattern associated with this MJO movement. Before the MJO convection was centered across the Indian and also north of Australia, although areas of weakly enhanced convection remained in central tropical Pacific. The equatorial dry reigon pushed a long way west which is a very good sign for Australian precipitation patterns reflecting solid trade winds pushing moisture towards Australia with minimal interruption by tropical systems to our east. Although there was some weak enhanced cloudiness north of NZ.

cloudiness 3 mth.png


For the last month the focus of enhanced convection has shifted significantly east to be now north of Australia and in the far west Pacific. The Indian has been very quiet for this period.

cloudiness mth.png


At the same time there has been a lot more activity north of NZ, and there is no longer a path for the equatorial trades to reach the Australian region without first being interrupted by tropical activity in the far west Pacific. There is also more cloudiness in the north Pacific. However this region is now pushing into winter in that region and cloudiness can reflect upper trough activity a lot more than it does deep convection. SLP patterns doe show low pressure anomalies in that region though.

A significant warming of the entire Pacific seems all but guaranteed for the next few months. How long will this current shift of tropical activity further east last for? Will there be a new trade wind surge when the MJO finally emerges from its current movement?
 

Greysrigging

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Sorry gents, not quite sure where to post this....
Has anyone been following the forecasted extreme heat in Argentina in the next 6-7 days.
Yes, it is GFS and may well change as we get closer to the event, but it would be record breaking if it came off.
aYcNvWW.jpg

The record max for South America is 48.9c set over 100 years ago.
nQmJX6R.jpg

There are some 48c-50c forecasts in this run....be astounding if it actually came off !
NptCzOf.jpg
 

Michael Hauber

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Sorry gents, not quite sure where to post this....
Has anyone been following the forecasted extreme heat in Argentina in the next 6-7 days.
Yes, it is GFS and may well change as we get closer to the event, but it would be record breaking if it came off.
aYcNvWW.jpg

The record max for South America is 48.9c set over 100 years ago.
nQmJX6R.jpg

There are some 48c-50c forecasts in this run....be astounding if it actually came off !
NptCzOf.jpg

Interesting.

A good thread might be https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/general-weather-bbq-forum-worldwide.85780/
 

Michael Hauber

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Certainly appears to be a big kelvin wave, and it looks like subsurface will switch to warm across the entire Pacific. But what will happen next?

subsurface.png


After I commented on the slow warming picked up by TAO, but not reflected by satellites, there has been a sharp cooling spike in the east, which is also not really reflected by the satellites. Variation due to warm and cool eddies swirling over the sensors? Or was there a real warming trend with the weakening of the trade winds followed by a sharp cooling ahead of the warm kelvin wave? I'm thinking more likely the eddie swirling. Both satellite and TAO pick up warming near the dateline, and temps in this region are now close to average.

surface.png


After an unusual excursion the Pacific it appears the MJO is finally about to show itself in the Indian Ocean around the start of February.

mjo_rmm.daily.20220113.png


GFS is starting to hint at a trade wind surge at the end of its two week forecast period. While the MJO event in the Pacific has given the system a big push towards warming it will be telling how the MJO in the La Nina favorable sectors goes, as it may undo a fair bit of this warming influence.

Worth noting also is that SSTs in the Indian ocean have warmed a good amount with such a long absence of the MJO from this region. This may set significant tropical activity and give a boost to a potential trade wind surge as the MJO swings around. The MJO started its long phase in the Pacific as the Indian cooled as the IOD ended and Indian Ocean SSTs cooled. Before this Indian Ocean SSTs looked to be the warmest anomalies in the tropics and I suspect were driving lots of easterly activity in the Pacific. And now temps look similar to what they were back then. However this time of year the atmospheric response to tropical convection tends to erode any SST variations much faster than it does during our winter/spring hence IOD events amplifying in winter/spring, but collapsing as summer comes on.

There has also been a lot of warming off the coast of South America. Still a lot of cool water in the SE Pacific and I'm not sure if this will have any significant impact.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1 (4).png
 
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Michael Hauber

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MJO has now become weak and disorganised after its extended run in the Pacific. The BOM forecast suggests it will continue in this state for the foreseeable future. If so we would be close to running the entire Dec-Feb period without the MJO entering the Australian region (outside of the inner circle). However the MJO was still in the Australian region as at Dec 1 according to BOM archive and left on the 2nd or 3rd (archive ends at Dec 1 currently). Looking back through history how unusual is this? Going back to 1998, I cannot find a year where the MJO failed to enter the Australian region during Dec - Feb. Interesting the 3 closest occasions previously where major el nino years - 97/98, 02/03 and 09/10. However the other major el nino of 15/16 had two substantial MJO entries into the Au region. The major la nina in 10/11 also had low MJO presence in Australian region during Dec-Feb, but not to the same extent.


mjo_rmm.daily.20220122.png



While the BOM forecast has MJO in no man land for the forecast period, CFS pushes it into the Australian region in the next two weaks, JMA pushes it into the Indian within 2 weeks where it is a fair chance to then move into Australia later in February. EC is similar to BOM with MJO mostly in no mans land, but it could have a few days into the edge of the Australian region.

With the MJO ending its long period in the Pacific there are now signs of a trade surge in the GFS forecast.

Days 6-10:

gfs_u850aMean_global_6.png


With a warming trend pretty much guaranteed this time of year this is more likely to slow down the warming likely in the near future, than produce further cooling. If the warming trend slows down enough then it might go back to cooling late Autumn.
 

snowbarbie

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Interesting to note speculation from Dr Jim Salinger (NZ)that the Tongan eruption may produce southern hemisphere pacific reduction in temps up until spring in range of 0.1-0.5 C.....possible a nudge for enso development as well?
 
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PeteJ

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If the MJO stays away to the end of Feb, maybe by then, a favorable synoptic pattern may finally exist to allow a tropical intrusion of some sort, giving rain to the dry areas of central QLD and down to the SE and Southern inland. Just a hope because it looks absolutely hopeless currently.
 
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