Don't know. Strong active phase MJO keeps getting pushed further into forecast future and strong easterly bursts re-installed -if they persist maybe kill off any nino developing. Most likely extended phase neutral with odds for triple headed nina slightly shortening?
Obvious candidate for elephant in room might be extensive area of cooler water to the south. Maybe cfs is(uniquely?) capturing this in forecasts as a persistent feature for coming months.
Yeah indeed lol, It's looking maybe 40/50 chance now for a triple dip. www.cpc.ncep.nooa.gov
We are already in our 2nd la-nina without doubt.
And what if there is a twist, Myself will be watching more closely in about 6 months time.
Simply because and its not unprecedented either, tho relatively unusual for 3 la nina's in a row as has happened before 1973-1976 and 1988-2001
We are already in our 2nd la-nina without doubt.
And what if there is a twist, Myself will be watching more closely in about 6 months time.
Simply because and its not unprecedented either, tho relatively unusual for 3 la nina's in a row as has happened before 1973-1976 and 1988-2001
I guess maybe, a reasonable answer is 1972 in Feb the atmosphere was coupled with a 3.1 reading of neg 0.7What caused this in 72?? Melb floods
From the Archives, 1972: Chaos as floods batter Melbourne
In 1972, cars floated down streets and people were swept off their feet by floodwaters when the heaviest city downpour to date struck Melbourne.www.theage.com.au
I think it's still slightly early to call
Even with the spring barrier model uncertainty with enso models.
This plot above with these strong easterlies now @ the date line, surely now those who touted a el-nino may have to rethink it.
If the easterlies persist like they are across the pacific the 3rd nina may even be the strongest of the three.
Wetter is usually not colder, sadly.
It's refreshing to see enso factors again being posted in this thread in relation to snow seasons giving this is a ski forum. Re: the other post yeah altho somewhat lagged the Ross sea temps also can give a decent indercation as to how enso is unfolding. The Rossby wave chain also plays a big part in how the Sam plays out. Winter with cool or neutral enso and a decent wave chains should see a decent snow season.Blair Trewin & Acacia Pepler 2015 study found the right combo we need for the best snow seasons. Ultimately, neutral ENSO with slightly negative IOD, Negative SAM Bias are best for us in SE Aus.
More here: https://www.researchgate.net/figure...SAM-07-07-or-neutral-1957-2013_fig4_286912716
It's a great research paper if you're a snow head.
Yes Vinny, a 60% chance that it will be drier than usual. So not good for CQ at all.
Bit of a cold pool at depth as well in 3.4 which could be picked up if it surfaces
Yes Sydney had a lot of rain but not associated with a monsoonal incursion into the Australian continent
Or is it?
www.severe-weather.eu
What a brilliant read! So informative!Triple dip.
ENSO Weather: La Nina has strangely reversed its collapse, but how will it now impact the weather as we head towards the Summer and into the late year?
Weather in the United States and also Europe will continue to be under the influence of the La Nina, likely extending into the cold season
With the May predictability barrier almost out of the way and the atmosphere still not budging from La-Nina thresholds, it's hard to see anything other than another cool episode for the rest of the year IMO. Whether that be cool-neutral or another Nina though, who knows. Either way, I think we can safely throw El-Nino out the window for another year.
