Current & Forecast Climate Drivers

Rainbow Serpant

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I was listening to ABC Capricornia Radio online with Paul Culliver, he had a guest on from the CSIRO who believes they have discovered an error in Enso Climate Forecasting that lead to the Forecast Errors in last years & this years modeled climate outlooks for the La Nina Summers for Qld. Did anyone catch this or know what the discovery is. I lost internet at that time and missed it all/
 
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Vinny

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If the MJO stays away to the end of Feb, maybe by then, a favorable synoptic pattern may finally exist to allow a tropical intrusion of some sort, giving rain to the dry areas of central QLD and down to the SE and Southern inland. Just a hope because it looks absolutely hopeless currently.

That's what happened last year nothing until March and April.
 
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Michael Hauber

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Some more enhanced trades recently, but a bit weaker than previous surges, at least so far, and surface temps have warmed somewhat. Temps near the dateline are pretty much average, but solid cool anomalies persist further east.

surface.png


The warm kelvin wave continues fairly strongly, and should reach the far east in the next couple weeks, returning surface temps throughout the Pacific to near normal.

subsurface.png


A lot will depend on trade winds for the next couple months. GFS short term forecast suggests a further strengthening of trades towards the end of the two week forecast period which will at least delay the current warming trend. Monthly CFS seems to want continued strong trades and no weakening of current cool anomalies and seems to have lost touch with reality.

What has caught my eye is the CFS weekly forecast. It seems to be picking up on a stronger MJO pulse through the Pacific

CFS MJO.png


I have not had a lot of faith in CFS weekly, and if this does happen its a bit step towards el nino

If you look at current SSTs, the warm SST anomalies in the west Pacific look to be getting stronger than those in the Indian, and a further week or two of MJO in the Indian will further cool Indian Ocean SSTs. The good thing is that the warmest anomalies are still furthest west near PNG. As long as we don't start getting any cool SSTs near PNG with warmer anomalies further east the prospects for further westerly activity should be reduced somewhat.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1 (4).png
 
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Nature's Fury II

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Is something wrong with CFS these days? It's forecasting a drop to -1.5 in May which would be the lowest in the entire double-dip Nina. It's going for a massive trade burst later this month. 3.4 is dropping again (now at -0.9). It's also clear that the atmosphere is still in La Nina mode but the ocean isn't anymore. There is significant sub-surface upwelling of warm water.

-1.5 does seem like massive overkill though especially when the other models are going for a continued weakening of Nina. CFS has done this for two years previously. In 21 and 22 it was forecasting an extremely severe Nina over -2 which never happened. Is something wrong with the programming?
 
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snowbarbie

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Is something wrong with CFS these days? It's forecasting a drop to -1.5 in May which would be the lowest in the entire double-dip Nina. It's going for a massive trade burst later this month. 3.4 is dropping again (now at -0.9). It's also clear that the atmosphere is still in La Nina mode but the ocean isn't anymore. There is significant sub-surface upwelling of warm water.

-1.5 does seem like massive overkill though especially when the other models are going for a continued weakening of Nina. CFS has done this for two years previously. In 21 and 22 it was forecasting an extremely severe Nina over -2 which never happened. Is something wrong with the programming?
Don't know. Strong active phase MJO keeps getting pushed further into forecast future and strong easterly bursts re-installed -if they persist maybe kill off any nino developing. Most likely extended phase neutral with odds for triple headed nina slightly shortening?
 
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snowbarbie

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Don't know. Strong active phase MJO keeps getting pushed further into forecast future and strong easterly bursts re-installed -if they persist maybe kill off any nino developing. Most likely extended phase neutral with odds for triple headed nina slightly shortening?
Obvious candidate for elephant in room might be extensive area of cooler water to the south. Maybe cfs is(uniquely?) capturing this in forecasts as a persistent feature for coming months.
 
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FireupWx

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:fishing:

We are already in our 2nd la-nina without doubt.

And what if there is a twist, Myself will be watching more closely in about 6 months time.
Simply because and its not unprecedented either, tho relatively unusual for 3 la nina's in a row as has happened before 1973-1976 and 1988-2001
Yeah indeed lol, It's looking maybe 40/50 chance now for a triple dip. www.cpc.ncep.nooa.gov
 

Nidecker

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:fishing:

We are already in our 2nd la-nina without doubt.

And what if there is a twist, Myself will be watching more closely in about 6 months time.
Simply because and its not unprecedented either, tho relatively unusual for 3 la nina's in a row as has happened before 1973-1976 and 1988-2001

What caused this in 72?? Melb floods

 

FireupWx

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What caused this in 72?? Melb floods

I guess maybe, a reasonable answer is 1972 in Feb the atmosphere was coupled with a 3.1 reading of neg 0.7
Have not looked at what the rossby wave activity was also at that time precluding the event at that time. In a nutshell nina.

likely some here may not agree and believe they know better.
More than happy to hear their thoughts on that event.
 

Nidecker

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I guess maybe, a reasonable answer is 1972 in Feb the atmosphere was coupled with a 3.1 reading of neg 0.7
Have not looked at what the rossby wave activity was also at that time precluding the event at that time. In a nutshell nina.

likely some here may not agree and believe they know better.
More than happy to hear their thoughts on that event.

I was kinda young and we were visiting from Perth, I remember it felt like the water was chasing us home... (we were driving)
 

snowbarbie

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5wnV9i.gif


Even with the spring barrier model uncertainty with enso models.


This plot above with these strong easterlies now @ the date line, surely now those who touted a el-nino may have to rethink it.

If the easterlies persist like they are across the pacific the 3rd nina may even be the strongest of the three.
I think it's still slightly early to call
 

Jellybeans

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Certainly shows that there could be a lot of moisture in our region to play with during this winter.

The question is whether we will see enough cold to turn it into large-scale snowfall.
 

FireupWx

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Atmosphere is always cooler over oz in cool phases of enso. And as a rule of thumb better snow season's are in the cool phases as well.
 
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POW Hungry

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FireupWx

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Blair Trewin & Acacia Pepler 2015 study found the right combo we need for the best snow seasons. Ultimately, neutral ENSO with slightly negative IOD, Negative SAM Bias are best for us in SE Aus.
More here: https://www.researchgate.net/figure...SAM-07-07-or-neutral-1957-2013_fig4_286912716
It's a great research paper if you're a snow head.

n-El-Nino-La-Nina-and-Neutral-years-1954-2013-with.jpg


-positive-negative-and-neutral-IOD-years-1958-2013.jpg


gure-3-but-for-JJAS-SAM-07-07-or-neutral-1957-2013.jpg
It's refreshing to see enso factors again being posted in this thread in relation to snow seasons giving this is a ski forum. Re: the other post yeah altho somewhat lagged the Ross sea temps also can give a decent indercation as to how enso is unfolding. The Rossby wave chain also plays a big part in how the Sam plays out. Winter with cool or neutral enso and a decent wave chains should see a decent snow season.
 

FireupWx

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xx_season-en-304-0_modezseason_2022030100_4_1536_526.png
xx_season-en-304-0_modezseason_2022030100_5_1536_526.png
xx_season-en-304-0_modezseason_2022030100_6_1536_526.png

Early yeah I know. EC seasonal see's as a being anomalously wetter over main winter months. Really think myself any moisture in the 850mb-925 layer during the diurnal cycle over the Alps will bring on snow showers durrin the winter months. And yeah that's without the random heavier events from polar lows that can ramp up snow fall on any given week. I do like what the EC see's even this early.
 

snowbarbie

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Let's hope not, SEQ and NSW need to dry out, and it also desperately needs to rain in the area between Ingham & Bundaberg. So another La Nina would be major problem, more floods down south & more dry & drought in the north. No thanks. I was really hoping for Neutral so my friends in CQ can get a few drops next Summer.
Bit of a cold pool at depth as well in 3.4 which could be picked up if it surfaces
2-t-mean-20220312-t-anom-500-0-500-0-hf-2022031602.png

and drifted westward by currents
thismonthanom.png


December KW warming in east looks orphaned for now but westerlies & westerly current to the north suppressing upwelling
=nina modoki possible.
If so, expectations of rainfall may shift depending on where you are located?
 
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Vinny

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Still what 60 percent or more of qld in drought,?....if la Nina is dry from Bundy north to Cairns...el Nino is dry too,?...guess it isnot that simplistic...other factors at play..

Why did it seem so wet 2012 to 2017 it is like our summer rains became less frequent more intense or erratic after ex cyclone debbie....is it a cycle .even though we had good rains 2 years ago in feb and march it fell heavy in a short time eg march 2020 we had over 300mm in a week then nothing for the rest of march...

Same in 2022.november a heap in a short time ending mid December then 3 months of nothing before 2 days of rain on the coast....now 2 weeks dry again
..
 
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Vinny

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I lived in Perth in 2004 to 2011, dry summers were normal ... or so i thought. I ithink the average rainfall for January is 9 or 10 mm.

Ok so FarmOnline says
Perth:

average rainfall to Mar
52.1mm
9.9 day(s)

total for 2022
10.5mm
7 day(s)

So is 41.5mm deficit that concerning? I'd be more concerned if that was the total in winter.
 
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Steve777

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Rain meant for the North of Australia is being delivered to the coastal parts of SE Australia. The NSW coast has had a Monsoon this year. Sydney’s had over 1,000 mm in the past seven weeks.
 
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PeteJ

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just thought I would copy and paste my comment from the Central QLD thread.
Hi Mega,
If you still read the SE/NE thread I mentioned that yesterday and in the past. Doesn’t seem to get any real interest, but the almost failing of the Southern Hemisphere monsoon and cyclone season( apart from Madagascar as usual) and especially around Australia really fascinates me. The typhoon season has already started north of the equator after going right into December last year. Of course as the other contributors point out,this in a La Nina and sst’s still above normal.
Also, it may be to early to make any definite conclusion, bit just going by the SOI and SST anomalies this La Niña seems to be strengthening again.
 

POW Hungry

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Also, it may be to early to make any definite conclusion, bit just going by the SOI and SST anomalies this La Niña seems to be strengthening again.
Or is it?
1649626648530.png


What we've seen in the last month (along the East Coast) is the feedback/response from the renewed La Nina signal in Feb/Mar.
The 'last hurrah' IMO.
Screen Shot 2022-04-11 at 7.40.49 am.png
 
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PeteJ

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But also the persistent parade of huge intense upper lows and troughs certainly helped, and my comment about the La Niña was just based on the last few days. Probably no where near enough time to make any judgements.
 
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Nature's Fury II

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Mega

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And what about todays BOM Climate Driver Update?
With the May predictability barrier almost out of the way and the atmosphere still not budging from La-Nina thresholds, it's hard to see anything other than another cool episode for the rest of the year IMO. Whether that be cool-neutral or another Nina though, who knows. Either way, I think we can safely throw El-Nino out the window for another year.
 
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