Current & Forecast Climate Drivers

PeteJ

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Thanks Mega. After reading that article then looking at BOM‘s update, I thought I detected a considerably more “La Niña is fading away “type forecast from the BOM.
 
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Actually last time we had a negative IOD in Yeppoon the following happened.

Rainfall was above average slightly (though the averages aren't that high at this time of year. Temperatures day and night were close to average. I don't know though that was due to the IOD or La Nina disappearing and leaving it cooler ...

I went to look at Rockhampton Airport 2021 also a negative IOD and it shows 0mm in May (Yeppoon had next to nothing either last May) , June was above average rain, July data missing (so much missing data since 2018 ! ) August super close to average.

Seems to affect southern Australia more though maybe the effects of La Nina hanging around might produce a few more drops and the IOD being negative might have a small effect on the area to produce some wet stuff.



1651103152429.png
Should the thread be renamed Yeppoon weather and climate ?
 
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Should the thread be renamed Yeppoon weather and climate ?
Anyway Robertson near Wollongong is approaching 2000mm for the year so far with Albion park airport(being in a rain shadow) receiving over 1300mm , the annual average is 920mm with the highest annual total at Albion Park airport in 22 years is 1266mm!!! Many other illawarra locations have already exceeded average annual rainfall totals , this May rival 1950 for annual totals by years end with another -ve IOD and a possible 3rd la nina.
 
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lewis

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Tame post really. Unfortunately it will likely
be taken down again by the power's atbe running this site.

Freedom of speech is not allowed on this site. Threads are heavily moderated if what you type is not to their liking it will be
taken down and you get banned under the heading of spam. Have to wonder if the owner's of the site are either Chinese or Russian. Freedom of speech is a democratic rite in this country.
Which climate drivers does this relate to?
 

PeteJ

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Tame post really. Unfortunately it will likely
be taken down again by the power's atbe running this site
I am assuming I know who you are. Why can't you just post your charts with a simple explanation and without the sarcasm etc? I am the first to admit My knowledge of climate drivers is very basic but it is enough for me. Simplicity can be informative
Cheers
 

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soi30(2).png
Highest it has been in years , see surface temps and many other indicators are pointing towards a continuation of this nina and la niña is breaking down according to BOM , if there is a 3 peat will the BOM be as reluctant to call it as they were for the 2021-22 nina ?
 

Storm1

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soi30(2).png
Highest it has been in years , see surface temps and many other indicators are pointing towards a continuation of this nina and la niña is breaking down according to BOM , if there is a 3 peat will the BOM be as reluctant to call it as they were for the 2021-22 nina ?
Could be something to do with the building -IOD.
 

Mega

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Potential now for SOI to fall considerably. Interesting to see for how long and how far.
Yeah I wish I had the technical jargon to describe why...but in simple terms, there's an elongated trough consisting of twin lows just to the south of Tahiti which will heavily influence the SOI in the coming days.

Interesting that over the past few days, CFS has backed right off another Nina later in the year. Could just as quickly switch back though.
 

PeteJ

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Yep, and it’s happened before. A trough decides to spend an extended holiday over French Polynesia. The infamous “ La Niña plays possum” headline from NOAA back in the 1990’s(or was it the early 2000‘s) a classic example.
 

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Looks like a developing warm Kelvin Wave will kill off the chance of a third next summer. Though it looks like a weak Nina like signal will continue into spring/summer, rather than neutral.

Does a cold upwelling Kelvin wave usually follow a warm downwelling Kelvin wave ? Couldn't this return sea surface temperatures to below average again just like what happened after the warm Kelvin wave in January?
 

Mega

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Also looks to be a fairly strong MJO signal coming up across the Pacific in the next few weeks which you would think isn't great news for a triple-dip Nina:

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif
 

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Also looks to be a fairly strong MJO signal coming up across the Pacific in the next few weeks which you would think isn't great news for a triple-dip Nina:

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif
Yeah westerlies will help push the warm water east, still a long way off from usual time when la niña would redevelope , still a chance for a 3rd niña I think
 
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Mega

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Craig B

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I saw this last night too. None of them mention what impact the upcoming MJO signal could have on a third Nina though. Maybe it will have nothing? Who knows.
Very vague. Here's my more detailed analysis..


La Nina still has a while to go, looks like strong easterly winds will feed into that strengthening MJO signal. Initially upwelling more cold water but I still feel the warm Kelvin wave might be the beginning of the end come the end of winter/spring.

We'll see.
 
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Storm1

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I think there should be cause for real concern if we get a La Nina this spring/summer, particularly as it will coincide with a huge negative IOD. Very similar pattern to late 2010.
The negative IOD will help to push the Pacific towards a La Ninalike state.
 

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Could it be possible to get a long La Nina? Say, one that lasts longer than 4 years.
well anything is possible but only ever 3 la niñas in a row recorded previously , 1998-2001 , 1973-76 and 1953-56 are cited as only times this occured
 

rocketboy

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NOAA uses a slightly different definition for declaring ENSO events.

This page here has the data back to 1950 in an easy to read chart for both ENs and LNs.

This has been quite a mild run for the La Nina index - given the outcome in multiple places around the world.

The latest NOAA ENSO report is here for May 2

Latest BOM Climate Update was today and is here
 

Ultra2.0

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well anything is possible but only ever 3 la niñas in a row recorded previously , 1998-2001 , 1973-76 and 1953-56 are cited as only times this occured
sadly the climate has changed a LOT since then, so anything is possible now. as they say, everything now is unprecedented, as they atmosphere has not had this much heat retention in recorded history.
 
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snowbarbie

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This one is behaving rather unusually. One has to wonder if the Tongan volcano has something to do with it.
Initially there was speculation that so2 emissions might suppress winter-spring temp particularly in SH(I think). I'm fairly certain that SO2 loadings have since been measured to be negligible though the eruption was notable as the highest ever attained(36 miles) - penetrating the mesosphere
 

rocketboy

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No assumption. Just fact.
Most if not all the big (super) El Niño periods are followed by a big La Niña period. But both the recent big El Niño and this La Niña have been somewhat shallow on the indexes but long. Whereas in previous super cycles they have been much deeper. Though given how things have gone around the world you’d think they were very deep index events. The rest of this ENSO cycle will be fascinating to watch play out.

2013 and 2016 were washout seasons but on the right day/week some of the most fun to be had. 2014 was saved at the start of schoolies by snowmagedden.

Some of the frames on GFS long range are very busy. So many forces from different directions. Statistically it should produce the right storm conditions at some point and it’ll be on. But it’s going to be a very opportunistic driven season. With delight one week and classic horror the next.
 

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Most if not all the big (super) El Niño periods are followed by a big La Niña period. But both the recent big El Niño and this La Niña have been somewhat shallow on the indexes but long. Whereas in previous super cycles they have been much deeper. Though given how things have gone around the world you’d think they were very deep index events. The rest of this ENSO cycle will be fascinating to watch play out.

2013 and 2016 were washout seasons but on the right day/week some of the most fun to be had. 2014 was saved at the start of schoolies by snowmagedden.

Some of the frames on GFS long range are very busy. So many forces from different directions. Statistically it should produce the right storm conditions at some point and it’ll be on. But it’s going to be a very opportunistic driven season. With delight one week and classic horror the next.
scroll down this page to the long term chart and it will show clearly the la nina / el nico years.

scroll down this page to the long term chart and it will show clearly the la nina / el nico years.

I was replying to you rightly stating that the last 2 triple dip la niña were followed by el nino but if a triple dip la niña occurs in 2022-23 it would be assumptive to assume it would be followed by el nino , you replied no assumptions just fact , you were clearly making an assumption
 

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I was replying to you rightly stating that the last 2 triple dip la niña were followed by el nino but if a triple dip la niña occurs in 2022-23 it would be assumptive to assume it would be followed by el nino , you replied no assumptions just fact , you were clearly making an assumption
You are also also assuming that I am not well versed on all things ENSO by including that helpful link
 

rocketboy

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I was replying to you rightly stating that the last 2 triple dip la niña were followed by el nino but if a triple dip la niña occurs in 2022-23 it would be assumptive to assume it would be followed by el nino , you replied no assumptions just fact , you were clearly making an assumption

wasn't intending to be assumptive - just saying this chart shows IMO how what POW is saying happens much of the time. The NOAA chart is also good as it shows a stronger signal over the ENSO cycles in whatever patterns there might be.

it's still largely drive by noise but the warming signal is playing havoc with whatever climate patterns we've had the last 150 years.
 
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