Current & Forecast Climate Drivers

rocketboy

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Tonga was off the charts

+ Tonga volcanic eruption effects reached space
 
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POW Hungry

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Tonga was off the charts

+ Tonga volcanic eruption effects reached space
Upon reaching the ionosphere and the edge of space, ICON clocked the windspeeds at up to 450 mph - making them the strongest winds below 120 miles altitude measured by the mission since its launch.
o_O:oops:
 

rocketboy

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+ Method used to track ants underground could revolutionize how we measure snow depth from space
 
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POW Hungry

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What a spread!? It's a statistical nightmare.

Screen Shot 2022-05-20 at 8.13.33 pm.png
 
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snowbarbie

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Impact of Increasing Stratospheric Water Vapor on Ozone ...

http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk › Tian_aas2

Paper above suggests asymetrical hemispheric reponses in stratospheric ozone and temperatures between south and north to increasing WV in the stratosphere. Overall, cooling and increased O3 depletion in SH is not completely offset by an opposite dynamic in NH. It's a 2008 presentation.I'm not sure if there are more recent studies to confirm or counter this observation.. Cant say I'm up with it all and the dynamics look quite complex, but I thought it interesting considering the WV spike posted above(if it is attributable to the Tongan eruption)and the timeline of significant downward spikes in minimum temps appearing in the mid to lower SPV thus far this season.

tmins-10-2022-merra2.png
 

snowbarbie

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Impact of Increasing Stratospheric Water Vapor on Ozone ...

http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk › Tian_aas2

Paper above suggests asymetrical hemispheric reponses in stratospheric ozone and temperatures between south and north to increasing WV in the stratosphere. Overall, cooling and increased O3 depletion in SH is not completely offset by an opposite dynamic in NH. It's a 2008 presentation.I'm not sure if there are more recent studies to confirm or counter this observation.. Cant say I'm up with it all and the dynamics look quite complex, but I thought it interesting considering the WV spike posted above(if it is attributable to the Tongan eruption)and the timeline of significant downward spikes in minimum temps appearing in the mid to lower SPV thus far this season.

tmins-10-2022-merra2.png
Another look at that impressive pulse of WV for those who might not have already seen it. Could the QBO cycle(and ENSO) be disrupted? - it seems possible from the distribution shown.

FTVIHl7-Xs-AA-LUe.jpg
 
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Mega

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Anyone else notice the reenergized MJO pulse across 6 & 7 in the coming week?
 

PeteJ

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Anyone else notice the reenergized MJO pulse across 6 & 7 in the coming week?
Is that the cause of this? From the BOM.
17 May 2022

Westerly wind anomalies likely for the western Pacific​

International climate model outlooks show westerly wind anomalies (a weakening of the trade winds) over the western tropical Pacific are likely this week. Equatorial Pacific trade winds for the 5 days ending 15 May are close to average. The forecast wind anomalies would be the first significant relaxing of the stronger than average easterly trade winds associated with La Niña since early January. Westerly wind anomalies typically result in a warming of tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures and potentially a decline in the current La Niña event.
 

Mega

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Is that the cause of this? From the BOM.
17 May 2022

Westerly wind anomalies likely for the western Pacific​

International climate model outlooks show westerly wind anomalies (a weakening of the trade winds) over the western tropical Pacific are likely this week. Equatorial Pacific trade winds for the 5 days ending 15 May are close to average. The forecast wind anomalies would be the first significant relaxing of the stronger than average easterly trade winds associated with La Niña since early January. Westerly wind anomalies typically result in a warming of tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures and potentially a decline in the current La Niña event.
I wish I could say with 100% certainty but my guess would be yes.
 
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Craig B

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Flowin

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If anybody has interest in distinguishing ENSO and IOD influences on precipitation, it is a challenge indeed. This recent paper has compared physical simulation and statistical separation methods to draw new views on this challenge.
And if that ain’t complex enough for experts then I would say ‘what would such experiments yield if IPO were thrown in too?
 
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Mega

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So June UKMET updated a few hours ago plunges us into another moderate Nina toward the end of the year, as does NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble), albeit weaker. CFS does not agree and weakens the La-Nina signal from here on out. First is CFS, then NMME, then UKMET (chart doesn't go out to December though):

cfs-mon_01_ssta_global_6.png

nmme_ssta_nmme_global_7.png

2cat_20220601_sst_months46_global_deter_public.png
 
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Mega

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Seeing the performance of the forecast throughout our summer/autumn, pinch of salt.

1655444122618.png
Different models to be fair. The one you posted was ECMWF which ended up being way off the mark; the one weathersourse posted was UK which was ended up landing much closer to reality. Still, that's not to say that ECMWF won't be closer to the mark this time around, but it looks to be in the minority (again)?

To me the consensus seems to be trending towards cool-neutral/weak Nina persisting into early '23, but we'll see.
 

POW Hungry

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Craig B

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Different models to be fair. The one you posted was ECMWF which ended up being way off the mark; the one weathersourse posted was UK which was ended up landing much closer to reality. Still, that's not to say that ECMWF won't be closer to the mark this time around, but it looks to be in the minority (again)?

To me the consensus seems to be trending towards cool-neutral/weak Nina persisting into early '23, but we'll see.
My thoughts as well.

Agh thought they were the same models. I see UKMET and ECMWF. Cheers. My points still stand.
 
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Nature's Fury II

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Any connection with current and future ENSO? I remember Pakistan was hit by catastrophic floods in mid-2010 before the significant IOD/ENSO of 2010-2011.
 
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PeteJ

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If We end up with, say for example, cool neutral, or maybe perfectly neutral, what sort of comments will climatologist’s or journalists make about the expected weather over summer to early autumn.
A very knowledgeable member of the SE QLD/NE NSW thread posted an article, quite a while ago, that included a comment implying a return to neutral would save Australia from summer floods.
This is the quote.
but there is disagreement between different computer models and Australia could yet avoid a return of summer floods.”
Then my comment.

All these articles are interesting but these sort of statements are useless to say the least and dangerous more like it.
Seems even some experts and particularly the media have forgotten about the monsoon and cyclones, which can upset any seasonal forecast.
 
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weathersourse

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Screenshot_20220621_121918.jpg

NASA see's a few of its members with some strengthening of Nina in mid september that would be significant if that was to verify. What's most noticeable is the climate models never really see's any members plumes reaching - 0.5 on the forecast.
 

weathersourse

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Over the next few months the IOD should be the biggest influence driver over our region. The bom alongside other models are predicting a fairly strong neg IOD. That I believe
is what will sustain the la-nina pattern over our region.

Plots 1-3 below.


Screenshot_20220621_140304.jpg


Screenshot_20220621_140326.jpg

Screenshot_20220621_140326.jpg

.....................................................................................................
Screenshot_20220621_154553.jpg

Screenshot_20220621_154311.jpg






The trough becomes more tilted thinks the modeling during

September -Nov IOD influencing on it.

Screenshot_20220621_140041.jpg

CFSV2 model shows business as usual la-nina upper trough over the region in those months. Wetter NE and SE months ahead me thinks.
ADDED this image below for clarity and in a nutshell thinking.
Screenshot_20220621_153231.jpg



So is the strengthening nasa climate model see's as far fetched as some may believe. That plot got me motivated
to look somewhat deeper into the patterns.
,........................
 
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Dylan Kearney

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The BOM update also looks to have scaled back on the forecasted strength of the IOD. Was showing around -1.6 in September - now a forecasted max peak of around -1.3 through September. Still moderate values, therefore still a higher chance of above average rainfall across some large areas of Australia.
 

weathersourse

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Strong trade wind burst coming up in the next fortnight. Can only see the beginning of it in the below chart but looks impressive on extended runs.

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif
That's suggestive of we will see cooling again @ some point across the pacific and 3.4 will likely start a dipping trend again.

Not trying to put words into your mouth but thinking here.
I'm sure you already know that anyway and that is your hint with the post even tho you never said so.


But who knows you may not agree and that's ok.
 

Mega

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That's suggestive of we will see cooling again @ some point across the pacific and 3.4 will likely start a dipping trend again.

Not trying to put words into your mouth but thinking here.
I'm sure you already know that anyway and that is your hint with the post even tho you never said so.


But who knows you may not agree and that ok.
Nah I do agree. I think at the very least it will put an end to the gradual warming we've seen since early May. CFS puts us back into solid La-Nina territory again by late in the year.

nino34.png
 

rocketboy

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and another one.

IRI/CPC ENSO Forecast
Published: June 20, 2022
A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)

In mid-June, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain below-average (warming slightly). Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions, although weakened slightly. A La Niña Advisory still remains in place for June 2022. A large majority of the models in the plume predict SSTs to remain below-normal at the level of a weak La Niña until Jul-Sep 2022. Similar to the most-recent official CPC/IRI ENSO Outlook issued on June 9, 2022, the objective model-based ENSO outlook forecasts a continuation of the La Niña event with moderate probability (52% chance) during Jul-Sep 2022, continuing into boreal fall and winter with 51-59% likelihood.
 

weathersourse

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Boms own data. What am I missing here. So did the sio collapse and the Nina atmosphere uncoupled in a week.
Sorry for the sarcasm.
Easy to see why sio atmosphere don't marry up to that nina it's over for now call yesterday.



Also thinking the mjo that's on the way will again stall on the maritime interfered by the Nina standing wave in the cpac.

Screenshot_20220622_121430.jpg
 
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