Current & Forecast Climate Drivers

weathersourse

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June July is mostly always the dryer months along the eastern seaboard. Hence why most large scale building projects are planned in those months as rule of thumb.

Also likey trades most preferred months for outside work.
,................................
That said here's Phill's thinking on wxtwitter world.

Screenshot_20220623_102847.jpg

Not wanting another season of possible floods either but we
have no say in what climate does in the pacific enso region.
 

Mega

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June July is mostly always the dryer months along the eastern seaboard. Hence why most large scale building projects are planned in those months as rule of thumb.

Also likey trades most preferred months for outside work.
,................................
That said here's Phill's thinking on wxtwitter world.

Screenshot_20220623_102847.jpg

Not wanting another season of possible floods either but we
have no say in what climate does in the pacific enso region.
That trade wind burst looks insanely strong on the extended runs. Far out.
 
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Michael Hauber

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Subsurface is quite warm.

MJO is swinging into Indian Ocean and a long and strong trade surge should cool things down despite the recent warming and the subsurface. But I think a short one will do little. Some MJO models especially EC are forecasting a fast movement of the MJO into the Pacific which would likely mean a short lived trade surge. GFS models and BOM are forecasting a better run through Indian/Australian zones of MJO . It is not great, but I think it would be enough to maintain borderline la nina conditions if the following westerly phase isn't unusually strong.
While GFS forecasts a better MJO run its short range (14 day GFS) SLP forecast suggests low pressure dropping in the central Pacific in the 2nd week and westerly anomalies developing in the far west, which would likely be followed by westerly anomalies moving towards the dateline in week 3.

Could easily change of course, but a few reasons to not consider triple dip a done deal.
 

weathersourse

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cfs.gif

MJO forecast hits that nina standing wave interference again in the pacific.
Screenshot_20220625_105048.jpg

Dipole Nina standing wave position where the interference begins to happen with the mjo eastward movement.

Also worth noting the mjo only gets adhanced when it's over warm sst temp.
Those warmer temps are in the maritime region not out in the pacific.

Hope it makes some sense to anybody who follows and tracks mjo and enso.


Tend to think and agree with others it will be many more months ahead before 100% certain in ensowx world.
 
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Michael Hauber

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I''m interested to see what this coming trade-burst does to that warm pool sitting below the surface.

Quite robust and should bring it up and then it'll be very interesting to see what plays out through spring.

1656113904579.png

The trade wind burst will cause upwelling, which will bring the warm water to the surface. This water is up to 3 degrees warmer than normal, but that is still 3 or 4 degrees below the temperature of the surface water, so it still causes cooling. But if the subsurface was normal it would be 6 or 7 degrees cooler than surface waters so would cause stronger cooling.
 

weathersourse

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Trade surge will in most cases just cause the cooler water that are upwelled @the thermoclines up slope to be blown back over the enso region by trades from the walker cell circulation.

Anyways look back in @this closer to Xmas myself.
 
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