BOM classified the 2002 event as Weak to Moderate. The ONI peaked at 1.3 compared to 2.4 for the 1997/98 event and 2.6 for the 2015/16 event.Yep I was thinking about that before headed to this thread! So much coincidence. The 2002 El Nino was incredibly strong and severe despite after 3 years of La Nina. The year of 2000 was very cold especially in the winter like 2022 experiencing now.
2001 brought last hurrah of floods in early of the year before switch to dry in middle of the year that lead to El Nino conditions and positive IOD. 2001/2002 summer saw bushfires started before eased in late 2003. So definitely 2023 will be similar to 2001.
Certainly there was no significant rebound to a big El Nino after 3 consectuive years of La Nina in 1973 to 1976. It was only six years later that we got the huge El Nino in 82/83 which interestingly coincided with the El Chichon volcanic eruption that seemed to stop the global temp response you would normally see from such an El Nino event.