Current & Forecast Climate Drivers

Storm1

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If its impact is months then it's on weather, if its impact is over many years then its a climate impact.
We could see La Nina or La Ninalike conditions for several years or more, would mean a lot more rain due to increased evaporation and increased trade winds.
 
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weathersourse

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I have no idea myself how it would affect trade winds.
Member Sandy wrote some posts on this forum about the gas's and amounts in the volcano threads some time back.
 
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weathersourse

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Tend to think myself,and take it with a grain of salt. When this current current cool phase peaks again over next few months. We will then start to see some more warming trends over the east pacific leading to a weaker walker cell circulation and much weaker trades along the enso regions. In a nutshell the beginning of a switch.

For me really not much more to say or think about until we reach the peak period in this current ongoing cool phase.
 
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PeteJ

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A SEQLD/NE NSW contributor posted one of those long-range rain charts that, well this is how I read it, showing a distinct reduction in rain from February. To me it made sense. The usual failure of the monsoon/ cyclone season and no big upper systems(lows I mean) to make up for it, which is normal Aussie weather. That time is a long way off yet though.
Just addling the monsoon season can still happen well north, but will anything come south and I am writing from a viewpoint of some one one in SE QLD. Better stop before I dig myself further into a massive hole.
 
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weathersourse

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A SEQLD/NE NSW contributor posted one of those long-range rain charts that, well this is how I read it, showing a distinct reduction in rain from February. To me it made sense. The usual failure of the monsoon/ cyclone season and no big upper systems(lows I mean) to make up for it, which is normal Aussie weather. That time is a long way off yet though.
Just addling the monsoon season can still happen well north, but will anything come south and I am writing from a viewpoint of some one one in SE QLD. Better stop before I dig myself further into a massive hole.
The coral sea has been some what less than expected in TCS'
over the past few seasons. Not saying it will but won't be surprised @all if we see a improvement on the back end of this Nina phase in that area. Hoping not a heavy backend weighted catch-up of that area expelling built up sst heat though TC's.
SSE movers to the grave yard are fine but you don't want
beastie west movers.
All basins seem to play the catch-up game @ some point of time and go back to some normal ace numbers. Just my two cents.

Added inline with my thoughts on a switch after this current
cool phase peak .TC's in that region also enhance wwb's across the eq. And stronger ones can have a bigger influence on the switch.
So you likey can question do they also fall into the equation of a climate driver @ that time when they do happen?.

@PeteJ a link to those SEQLD/NE NSW chart posts would be helpful when you quote em. Comes across as a mysterious post when you don't.



Hasta la Vista.
 
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PeteJ

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Obviously a very long way out and shouldn't be taken too literally but a clear pattern of wet wet wet until the new year:

cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_aus_1.png

CFS Model

CFS model forecast of Monthly Total Precip Anomaly for Australia
favicon-32x32.png
www.tropicaltidbits.com
Click to expand...
Love these climate driver discussions, including the ones in the climate driver thread. When I read them the first thing I think is what sort systems/synoptic setup is going to cause the wet weather. When I look at the charts Nature’s Fury included, does it indicate an almost non-existent monsoon/cyclone season from Feb onward again. I often suspect that is a significant problem in Vinny’s area. Just my own personal ramblings
Hope this is sufficient plus my comment.
 

weathersourse

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Love these climate driver discussions, including the ones in the climate driver thread. When I read them the first thing I think is what sort systems/synoptic setup is going to cause the wet weather. When I look at the charts Nature’s Fury included, does it indicate an almost non-existent monsoon/cyclone season from Feb onward again. I often suspect that is a significant problem in Vinny’s area. Just my own personal ramblings
Hope this is sufficient plus my comment.
Over quite a few years,before you guys even came over to ski. When it came to incoming monsoon patterns over the indo, oz, and wpac ,spac/and tc probs in the region.
Mega was the astute one and a country mile ahead of the others in canetoad land.
And most likely still is.
 

Mega

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Not surprising to see the SOI skyrocketing now with low pressure seeping into NW Australia as the -IOD ramps up + return to stronger ridging across the French Polynesia. Should continue to see some big numbers in the days ahead.

As for the TC season ahead, I've given up trying to get an idea of what the Coral Sea might do at season's end after two very quiet years, both of which were during Ninas. I remember making a post last year about how warm the CS was and that maybe, just maybe this would be the season we'd see one or two big ones but all we got was ex Seth and a bunch of other ECLs (obviously not in their true winter form but BoM still call them that). Maybe NW Australia could have a big one though if the -IOD doesn't decay too quickly.

Interesting though the Northern Hemisphere seems to be struggling in terms of typhoons/hurricanes so far apart from the far EPAC which has been quite active despite La-Nina conditions (that area is usually more active during Ninos).
 
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weathersourse

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That would be interesting been along time since I have seen a bonafide early onset of the monsoon in the topend. Off the top of my head last time was in the days of nac.

A siberian high has to play it's part in the N-H early for that to happen as we'll and it needs to be very strong.
 

weathersourse

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We will see what JMA has to say about that in about a fortnights time. They are the
gold standard when it comes to modoki classification over enso regions.

For me @ present i only see a weak but building la-nina now in the pacific.
 

PeteJ

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I wonder about that often Vinny, not just your area, but what’s going to happen overall in this country in spring, summer early autumn, before the next drought starts.
There is a dozen more questions I ponder over too, well some anyway.
 
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Vinny

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Just amazes me how since 2015 January rainfall has been so bad here . Not trying to make this all about me just noticed a dry January pattern:
2013 was wet despite missing data . Average is 112mm.

We have not had an average January for 7 years !

1659404845284.png


Hopefully 2023 is different.
 
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Rainbow Serpant

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But that requires a monsoon/tropical depression/cyclone season, which I think, is the major but very unreliable key for that to happen, and I stress unreliable these times.
Yes correct, MJO propagation is influenced by low-frequency variability associated with ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole. The frequency of sP, wP, and ED events as function of each of these low-frequency modes is shown in Figures 2b and 2c. sP, wP, and ED events are observed during both positive and negative ENSO and IOD phases. wP events, however, are twice as frequent during El Niño than La Niña conditions. El Niño state can improve the chances for wP MJO events to propagate across the MC into our region.
 

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weathersourse

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Yes correct, MJO propagation is influenced by low-frequency variability associated with ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole. The frequency of sP, wP, and ED events as function of each of these low-frequency modes is shown in Figures 2b and 2c. sP, wP, and ED events are observed during both positive and negative ENSO and IOD phases. wP events, however, are twice as frequent during El Niño than La Niña conditions. El Niño state can improve the chances for wP MJO events to propagate across the MC into our region.
Only thing elnino is good for is epac and wpac hurricane/typhoon trackers and chasers. In our region can mean misery for many farmers over sometimes very long periods.
 
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Vinny

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Does the IOD phase we are in make any difference up our way in Rocky and Yeppoon. It was wetter last year through winter but not sure the IOD had any impact?
 
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POW Hungry

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The re-analysis of a July that was:
Screen Shot 2022-08-05 at 3.53.27 pm.png

Ridging through the Antarctic region 120-160°E killed off any regular polar circulation for the Aus/NZ region.

The region of divergence (in the Tasman/NZ/SPCZ) is highlighted in the VP200 plot - a broad region of upper-level (200mb) divergence (convergence at the surface) highlighting a series of Low Pressure systems impacting the Tasman, NZ and SW Pac.
In this plot you can see the tussle between the -IOD signal and 'diminishing' La Nina cycle with the SW & Western Pac taking the lion's share of activity.

Standardised:
Screen Shot 2022-08-05 at 4.06.28 pm.png

Seasonal:
Screen Shot 2022-08-05 at 5.28.32 pm.png


The correlation between the UL divergence in the NZ region via VP200 and the impact on the NZ snowpack:
Screen Shot 2022-08-05 at 4.24.53 pm.png


Screen Shot 2022-08-05 at 4.18.51 pm.png


The monthly wind vector at 1000mb (surface) says it all really. O Sou-Wester where art thou:
Screen Shot 2022-08-05 at 4.31.53 pm.png
 
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filski

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Any thoughts on Sept if planning a week off (and which side of the country?).
 

PeteJ

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Pressures over Tahiti dropping back to those troughy levels. How long will it last this time. Fortunately pressures at Darwin are lower for now.:
 
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Vinny

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Saw this on Eldersweather issued on the 2nd of AUG

ISSUE NOTES​

Issued 2 Aug 2022
ENSO status: Neutral, However, some models suggest La Niña may re-form in spring. IOD status: Negative, all models suggest this event will continue until late spring. SAM status: Neutral, neutral to positive levels are forecast in August The 2021-22 La Nina event has ended according to BOM, however two out of seven models suggest a return of La Nina in late winter, with four in October and five in November. Even though this event officially has ended, a La Nina-like pattern is likely to persist for the remainder of 2022. However, new data released by the U.S. Climate Prediction Centre continues to point towards the prospect of a third consecutive La Niña later this year. Their predictions give La Niña a 62 percent chance of occurring by early spring and a 65 to 66 percent chance in late spring and early summer.Looking further ahead, the majority of forecast models predict that the La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean should break down towards the end of summer, most likely returning to a neutral state early in 2023.

The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that a negative IOD event is underway to the northwest of Australia. This declaration comes after sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean have remained near or exceeded the negative IOD threshold for the last eight weeks. This is now the 2nd consecutive year to be declared a negative IOD year, following a relatively weak event in 2021. This is the first time we have seen two consecutive negative IOD years since reliable records of the IOD began in 1960. Unlike last year’s event, this year’s negative IOD is expected to be strong and last through the remainder of winter and spring. A negative IOD increases the chance of above average winter and spring rainfall and cloud across parts of southern Australia. The rainfall outlooks are reflecting this, with above average rain forecast during winter for much of Australia, except drier than average conditions are forecast in southwest WA and parts of TAS. During spring much of Australia isforecast to average to above average.

Early indications of summer rainfall look average to above average for much of Australia, except TAS which looks drier. The negative IOD could increase the risk of flooding over large areas of inland Australia. With two La Niña seasons already in the bag and the prospect of a third La Niña now a looming possibility, this is likely to have a compounding effect that may exacerbate the impacts we normally see in Australia. So, while individual La Niña events usually cause more rain and flooding in northern and eastern Australia, any La Niña-fuelled rainfall this year will be falling onto already saturated ground and into full dams. This makes flooding a heightened risk, especially for areas that just had a wet summer and autumn.
 

Mega

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Pressures over Tahiti dropping back to those troughy levels. How long will it last this time. Fortunately pressures at Darwin are lower for now.:
Yeah another trough/ECL (well their version anyway) forming SE of Tahiti, so expect some lower pressure readings out there for the next few days before returning to normal later the week. I don't think it's much to worry about though.

PS here is the latest Euro (which has been terrible but worth mentioning anyway). Only a couple of members go as low as -1, the rest are all above (not too dissimilar to POAMA):

6879-sghr7-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-VYBcwn.png


And here was the Euro in April:

6879-sghr7-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-0JM82f.png
 
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weathersourse

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Screenshot_20220807_193328.jpg



Web twitter the above. Got my interest @ the time.
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We live as you all know in a warmer climate these days. So yeah take it with a grain of salt. But the switch in 51+ is of interest for me with the current cycle in plot 1 on the web plot.
 

tomtankman

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Im not sure what the BOM are waiting for. 50% chance of La Nina is way too low considering we are in LA NINA now. Firstly using the 1960-90 baseline for SST is a mistake since oceans have warmed around 0.3 in the past 30 years but also every single indicator (SST, SST sub surface, SOI, trade winds, outgoing radiation, upper level westerlies) all show La Nina. NWS update this morning basically shows all this https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produ...ng/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
 
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