Cyclone Cyclone season 2016/17

nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
22,068
26,856
1,063
Yuin Country
Yet GFS is not so fwiw...
Had a look at a few of my go -to sites.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_aus_24.png

gfs.stormcast.bsch.init-2017032200z.fcst-201703281000z.mslp.aus.fcst.0.png


and GEM gone to sea
gem_z500_mslp_aus_25.png


EC again snipped here
https://www.windytv.com/?2017-03-27-03,-21.821,146.909,5,m:dcbakgF

upload_2017-3-22_19-3-40.png
 
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Zimboo

A Local
Aug 28, 2014
6,831
2,785
563
Been a shit / hot dry summer up here on the Sunny coast. Glad we personally got out of it for 3 weeks to Japan. Now, finally getting the rains. Might get a couple of late ones??
 

jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
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24c94bddc5.png


usually i have no interest in lower/res models. But its ens so
i posted it. Nice clustering there hard to ignore.
 

jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
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Been a shit / hot dry summer up here on the Sunny coast. Glad we personally got out of it for 3 weeks to Japan. Now, finally getting the rains. Might get a couple of late ones??
hope you never ate whale or dolphin sango's whilst in japan.
 

nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
22,068
26,856
1,063
Yuin Country
I'm sketchy on any sea food over there.
The drones are melting down still trying to clean up .......
 

jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
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Uncharted climate conditions this season could finish with a heavy back loaded season with TC's similar to the westpac 2016 season Nobody really knows what the new norm is these days aka Climate change. Time will tell.
 

jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
477
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25ee86b2e1.png


Realtime winds is already displaying a closed off circulation up-to 500mb.
 
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jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
477
723
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2dc93a8b88.png



2de4021078.png


GFS atm running with a v/small tight TC. Side scale = kts.

I think there is not enough interest to continue here. Understandable this is, chiefly a snow forum. Pass the baton on good luck Qld.
 
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Rabid K9

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 15, 2008
5,948
6,633
563
not enough interest to continue here.

Horse shit.

Just explain some of the specialist maps / layers / models in functional, on ground language so single cell amoeba like me can understand.
 

jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
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Horse shit.

Just explain some of the specialist maps / layers / models in functional, on ground language so single cell amoeba like me can understand.
Those models posted above are simple.

All you need to know is the best nested model for intensity Forecasts
a Cat 5 SSHS. If you want horseshit suggest WZ is the place for you.
I pointed out earlier ie the shear plots the divergence plot the excellent
setup all that combined with very warm sst. Also told you shit will hit the
fan. So put that horse shit in ya pipe and smoke it.



3199941189.png




321bcc8325.png
 
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Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
13,027
21,461
813
Canberra
Some really good pictures @jwx
Enjoy the cyclone chat here, Twitter and at WZ.

Yesterday, I was a bit skeptical. But today, it's pretty solid on all the models except on GFS.
And as you point out shear and divergence is good.
 

MarkV

One of Us
Ski Pass
May 4, 2016
645
1,235
263
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 23 March 2017
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 26 March 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low pressure system is located southeast of the Papua New Guinea mainland. It is forecast to drift southward for the next 24 to 36 hours, before turning more westward towards the tropical Queensland coast late Friday or on Saturday.



Conditions are favourable for this system to develop, and the probability of it forming into a tropical cyclone will steadily increase into the weekend.



This system is likely to make landfall on the north tropical Queensland coast early next week.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday: Low
Saturday: Moderate
Sunday: High




Here is the BOM's view for what it's worth.
 

Rush

Pool Room
Jul 26, 2000
45,291
13,663
1,525
2005 was a El Niño Year this is not.
Don't be so sure. BoM has gone to 'El Nino watch' for a reason. Huge flooding in Peru and SST anomalies off coastal Peru look similar to developing El Ninos of the past.
 

nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
22,068
26,856
1,063
Yuin Country
I'm taking the models now , finally, falling into line with EC and also all are plotting it more than a day - day 1/2 earlier than EC first had it approaching FNQ coastline.
i.e initially 00z Tuesday now 6 or 12z Sunday ish.

91P_gefs_latest.png

Understood it may also track parallel with the coastline as per CMC.


91P_geps_latest.png

gfs.stormcast.bsch.init-2017032300z.fcst-201703261900z.mslp.cs.fcst.0.png


It is a ski forum and I like the low key / punter level chat here.
I am rego on WZ but never venture there.
I do get lost with some of the jargon but on the plus side I go looking and learning so I do understand.
Jwx , Jelly , Rush , Pow and all cheers for sharing as always
Be happier when we not looking at this crap and looking at the real stuff coming out of the deeeep South.
 

jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
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Don't be so sure. BoM has gone to 'El Nino watch' for a reason. Huge flooding in Peru and SST anomalies off coastal Peru look similar to developing El Ninos of the past.
Current 3.4 where nino is measured not 1.2.

371aec6111.png



3713a12c4e.gif

Current week 3.4. its not nino and has not been for quite some
time.


37cb048fbc.png



Huge flooding in Peru is likely attributed to the convention in the past
fort /night of the strong cckw in the region with the above temps @1.2
not elnino....................Enough.
 
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jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
477
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193
44062f1a71.jpg

Storm is getting better organised. wont be much longer before this
has a TC formation alert viva JTWC imo. Meaning its already or
very close to 35kts.


44080c3dfc.gif

Co-amps going with the big RI during the re- curve. That
is par for the course with most TC's. Model is showing 90-100
knots max /10-min. Its forecasting a high-end cat3 USA
or a cat4 aussie
 

jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
477
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4a1390287f.png

Highest res cyclone model, ramps it up when the storm stalls and tracks,
W. 90/100KT core winds.


4a4b7431da.png
 
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jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
477
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4ab54d9675.png


Ships intensity model max=110kts min/ mb=951mb.
 
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jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
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00z EC-HIres coming into line with HWRF and the ships intensity forecast.
Ships above fyi is the GFS ocean coupled model and shear forecast NHC.

4c65abb687.png



4c83212342.png
 

jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
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Would expect the system to get some boost over night with the
diurnal temperature change,storms should fire-up ie towers.
 

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
13,027
21,461
813
Canberra
ash91_2017032400_track_late.png

More cyclone track guidance. Most are in between Townsville and Bowen. GEM is a little drunk by the sounds of it.
 

jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
477
723
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Atm i tend to think it will go directly over magnetic island.
next 12 hour are important.
 

Seafm

Too far from the snow
Ski Pass
Jun 5, 2014
6,226
8,054
563
60
Cairns, Queensland
Atm i tend to think it will go directly over magnetic island.
next 12 hour are important.
You may prove to be right. The scenario unfolding looks very similar to Althea in 1971. Similar location, similar projected direction of movement. I know, I was there.
 
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jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
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Got the diurnal boost over night.


Tropical Cyclone 13P (Thirteen) Warning #01
Issued at 24/2100Z

13P THIRTEEN 170324 1800 17.2S 152.0E SHEM 40 999
JTWC best track has it @40kts atm. Should be named by the bom.


sh1317.gif
 
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Bluebird

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 16, 2013
4,871
3,144
963
Melbourne
Wow. It's been many years since TSV has had a direct hit. Was lucky to avoid one in the time I lived there. I still have many friends there including one who is heavily pregnant. It could make for an interesting story if the baby is born during the cyclone!
 

jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
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JTWC is not a media site i will back them over the bom any given
day.

WTPS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240121ZMAR2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 152.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 152.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.9S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.5S 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.9S 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.1S 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.6S 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.1S 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.3S 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 152.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 356 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SYSTEM THAT IS WELL ORGANIZED WITH A BROAD BUT DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CIRCULATION IS ALSO EVIDENT IN
SCATTEROMETRY AND THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR LOOP. DESPITE MULTIPLE
IMAGERY SOURCES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION IS FAIR DUE
TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD
HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) BASED ON A
PREVIOUS 241156Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 40KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30 C) AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOWS
STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND A STRONG VORTICITY SIGNATURE.
THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE EAST TOWARD A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. DURING

THIS PERIOD, EXPECT A SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. AFTERWARDS, THE STORM WILL TURN TO THE
WEST AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING
OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ALLOWING A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL

JUST BEFORE TAU 72. THE PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR NEAR TAU 60. AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER INLAND, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND
INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO ITS COMPLETE
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM
THE PAST 48 HOURS SHOWED THE SYSTEM TRAVELING FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE
MAKING THE WESTWARD WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN. THE SHIFT IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE SLOWED ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE
CONTINUAL SHIFT IN THE TAU AT WHICH THE STORM WILL TURN WEST, THE
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE TRACK LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 240130).//
 
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jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
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When the convention wraps fully around the llcc its game over.



Current Intensity Analysis


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 MAR 2017 Time : 221000 UTC
Lat : 17:28:16 S Lon : 151:59:53 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 997.3mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.4 3.5

Center Temp : -51.8C Cloud Region Temp : -65.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 100km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 24.0 degrees



May see the system begin to build a eyewall after 6hrs i thinking.
 

Seafm

Too far from the snow
Ski Pass
Jun 5, 2014
6,226
8,054
563
60
Cairns, Queensland
Wow. It's been many years since TSV has had a direct hit. Was lucky to avoid one in the time I lived there. I still have many friends there including one who is heavily pregnant. It could make for an interesting story if the baby is born during the cyclone!
46 years and 3 months as of yesterday. My niece from Melbourne flew into Townsville this week to see her brother and drove to Cairns yesterday to catch up with us. She's supposed to be driving back on Monday but now looks like tomorrow. She jokingly calls herself cyclone Suzi everytime she comes up north. Her dad originally wanted to call her Debbie. How's that for irony.
 
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