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Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by Claude Cat, Jan 28, 2016.
It's looking like a large text book cinnamon roll system atm.
00Z EC shifting S in the track 950mb @landfall
I still give weight to when the core forms rapid or explosive intensification is on the cards.
As I'm sort of in the area it's time for an observation. This is at Trinity Beach looking South East towards Debbie showing the outflow.
Latest track looking safer for Townsville, but not so good for Ayr and Bowen.
A good place to watch TC impacts
Buy your bananas and freeze them now
No need unless it takes a complete right turn. Sugar cane and cattle around Ayr and Bowen. Bananas are further north around Tully and Innisfail.
Bowen is tomato country.
No proper recent high frequency MW data available but the 37GHz vertical prolarization scan from WINDSAT indicates a muich better structure and this is backed up by WV images
and the latest WV
Still really ragged, but based on the SST and Shear environment, as jwx has been saying- she should really take off now ... still think that there is a long way to go in organisation before she becomes Yasi esque (late 4 early 5) though and with her size she is getting really close to the coast and land interaction I would have thought.
But JTWC has not downgraded and neither has BoM ... so Im probably wrong! guess I will find out when I wake up in the morning! Good night!
A severe weather warning has been issued for the Cairns area with catabolic westerly winds expected for the next day or so. An indirect effect from Debbie. It's a bit windy outside already. I can see final approach to Cairns airport from my place which will make for some interesting observations.
2017MAR26 200000 4.9 965.0 87.4 4.9 4.9 3.5 MW Adjst -76.41 -70.36 UNIFRM OFF OFF N / A 0.0 -18.67 -150.16 FCST HIM 8 24.2 MWinit1 = 3.5 / 3.5 / 3.5
2017MAR26 203000 4.9 965.0 87.4 4.9 4.9 3.5 MW ON OFF OFF UNIFRM -79.56 -70.69 N / A 66.8 -18.68 -150.13 FCST HIM 8 24.2
MW was on nice score there, looks be 85-90kts atm and intensifying.
James Rynolds has setup in Bowen his interest is being in the eyewalls .Best chaser
on this planet imo Josh Morgerman icyclone is also chasing this system.
Two of the finest along with aussie Jason star stuttered line up.
Oh yeah, just woke up to see that, from f-18.
Looking much nicer!
Jtwc has significantly downgraded her on the latest run, peaking at only 80kts sustained
On sat and the mw the eyewall is closed off traps,
thinking here we will see more knots in this system.
Good to see you pointed to the sustained winds/1min
even at 80kts if that is the case =heavy wind damage.
Gusts is not really a true indicator of strength imo they
These storms bands are also capable of producing
tornadoes. A meso within the core could be anything
in the range of 4x the strength in a localised area.
Oz Cyclone Chaser putting up some pretty good info , video analysis on fb .
Worth a look IMO.
edit : I know some of you guys are all over this tho.
I guess I was pointing out the massive downgrade in JTWC, which now puts Debbie at a mid Category 3. Previously she was a high cat 4, bordering on cat 5
Not sure of why the reason they downgraded traps.
its very large yeah but the mw now showing the
eyewall has finally closed off.? it always takes
time for the winds to catch up.
Dunno ... gut says she is too close to land and frictional interaction will begin to hamper development ... ordinarily I'd agree with you, and if she was another 300km out to sea with the same SSTs and shear environment I'd also expect rapid intensification, but the eyewall is just 190km off the coast. My gut has been known to be wrong, but I generally go with it!
Model runs have a very wet East coast QLD over the next few days regardless of her strength! She will stick around.
I think we will see a major sshs within the next 8hrs,
then over night warming of the eye hope's you are right traps, but rbtops suggesting to me explosive intensification is still V/likely.
Just me 2 cents .
its warming @ 700mb within wall.
It's a beautiful thing.
If you know what I mean.
Be scary as shit if it's headed your way.
If that eye clears out its booooooom.
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 MAR 2017 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 19:19:23 S Lon : 150:13:54 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 957.1mb/ 97.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.8 5.8
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -18.2C Cloud Region Temp : -69.9C
Scene Type : EYE
If it can warm into + should see 120KT+ system. SSHS 4
You need to look at all the data.
Am I imagining counter-rotating eyewall vortices from the Himawari 12:00 pm satellite images onwards?
you should have put input here jelly,cant see the point of 70 pages
of dribble and likely 10 of fact.
You can't follow it. There's like a new page every hour. Most of it is shit.
They eye is actually already pretty clear, if you look at the HiRes vis sat loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ram...020&height=720&number_of_images_to_display=24 you can see it is only a bit of thin overshooting cirrus from the eyewall convection that is covering the eye.
Big chance of that rush will likely be a awesome sight if the eye clears
right out. Its already a very powerful system now as you know.
The vids posted above are nothin compared to what the core winds
Majestic from the Satellite.
If we go Cat 4, I reckon the eye will fully clear out.
Aussie or sshs.
you're right, she's a thing of beauty.
A little side note and sorry to be a little off topic here but check out all that speckled cloud hovering around tassy and behind. winter on it's way?
Have a look at the link @trappers put up earlier ^^
that is seriously cool!!!
Because cool. Taken ~10min ago ... Click on pic and then select sizes down bottom right and select "original" for silly large version (5000x5000).
Aussie for Aussie cyclones, sshs for NA hurricanes. So Aussie
I see some polyp like formations I'm thinking are convection , or what I've read as towers ?
Yep, they are fast forming / rising convective plumes that have not yet "topped out".
If they are REALLY fast they will appear smooth as they are covered by pileus clouds
My pretty amateur guess for landfall would be Bowen Weak Cat 4 Aussie at about 9am tomorrow with 240kph winds along the coast Bowen and Airlie Beach.
HWRF is slightly south of Bowen and EC is slightly north of Bowen (Abbot Point), which are my two favourite models for cyclones. As you can see about 80kt gusts, in the eyewall. I think the cyclone will be a fair bit stronger on landfall than the EC prog with the official BOM guidance showing a much stronger wind forecast than EC. With good conditions for intensification, I'd doubt EC's wind prog comes to fruitation.
If the eye clears out my thinking is by morning a aussie5,
high end sshs cat4. Looking a similar size cyclone to what
Hurricane Katrina was. Big surge.Not suggesting the same
scenario just a size compassion.
That 80kts is for a ten-min w/s hwrf divide by 1.44 and you
have a major cane /1min
EDIT should have added this system is intensifying rapidly now.
Latest MW and composites look excellent for a mid 3 to low 4 (Aus), but you can see how close she is to land.
Sorry jwx, still don't recon she'll get too much stronger than she is now unless she sits here and does not move westward for another 6-12hrs.
Would be interesting to see what a DOVRAK of the latest IR says.
Don't think we get a good one traps until the system stops intensifying
atm i would think about 6.2 raw maybe a little more..
See how goes traps from here'in looks to be developing a third outflow
channel on radar and on those images.
2017MAR27 061000 5.3 956.9 97.2 5.0 5.5 6.3
Can nearly feel it.