Cyclone Cyclone season 2016/17

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by Claude Cat, Jan 28, 2016.

  1. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    It's looking like a large text book cinnamon roll system atm.
     
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  2. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    00Z EC shifting S in the track 950mb @landfall





    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]


    I still give weight to when the core forms rapid or explosive intensification is on the cards.
     
    #602 jwx, Mar 26, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2017
  3. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    As I'm sort of in the area it's time for an observation. This is at Trinity Beach looking South East towards Debbie showing the outflow.
     
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  4. MarkV

    MarkV One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]

    Latest track looking safer for Townsville, but not so good for Ayr and Bowen.
     
  5. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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  6. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Buy your bananas and freeze them now
     
  7. whether

    whether Addicted

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    No need unless it takes a complete right turn. Sugar cane and cattle around Ayr and Bowen. Bananas are further north around Tully and Innisfail.
     
  8. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bowen is tomato country.
     
  9. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    No proper recent high frequency MW data available but the 37GHz vertical prolarization scan from WINDSAT indicates a muich better structure and this is backed up by WV images
    [​IMG]

    and the latest WV
    [​IMG]

    Still really ragged, but based on the SST and Shear environment, as jwx has been saying- she should really take off now ... still think that there is a long way to go in organisation before she becomes Yasi esque (late 4 early 5) though and with her size she is getting really close to the coast and land interaction I would have thought.

    But JTWC has not downgraded and neither has BoM ... so Im probably wrong! guess I will find out when I wake up in the morning! Good night!
     
  10. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    A severe weather warning has been issued for the Cairns area with catabolic westerly winds expected for the next day or so. An indirect effect from Debbie. It's a bit windy outside already. I can see final approach to Cairns airport from my place which will make for some interesting observations.
     
  11. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    2017MAR26 200000 4.9 965.0 87.4 4.9 4.9 3.5 MW Adjst -76.41 -70.36 UNIFRM OFF OFF N / A 0.0 -18.67 -150.16 FCST HIM 8 24.2 MWinit1 = 3.5 / 3.5 / 3.5
    2017MAR26 203000 4.9 965.0 87.4 4.9 4.9 3.5 MW ON OFF OFF UNIFRM -79.56 -70.69 N / A 66.8 -18.68 -150.13 FCST HIM 8 24.2
    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2017/adt/text/13P-list.txt

    [​IMG]

    MW was on nice score there, looks be 85-90kts atm and intensifying.

    James Rynolds has setup in Bowen his interest is being in the eyewalls .Best chaser
    on this planet imo Josh Morgerman icyclone is also chasing this system.
    Two of the finest along with aussie Jason star stuttered line up.
     
    #611 jwx, Mar 27, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2017
  12. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh yeah, just woke up to see that, from f-18.

    Looking much nicer!
     
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  13. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jtwc has significantly downgraded her on the latest run, peaking at only 80kts sustained

     
  14. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    On sat and the mw the eyewall is closed off traps,
    thinking here we will see more knots in this system.
    Good to see you pointed to the sustained winds/1min
    even at 80kts if that is the case =heavy wind damage.
    Gusts is not really a true indicator of strength imo they
    are variable.

    These storms bands are also capable of producing
    tornadoes. A meso within the core could be anything
    in the range of 4x the strength in a localised area.
     
    #614 jwx, Mar 27, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2017
  15. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    #615 nfip, Mar 27, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2017
  16. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I guess I was pointing out the massive downgrade in JTWC, which now puts Debbie at a mid Category 3. Previously she was a high cat 4, bordering on cat 5
     
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  17. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Not sure of why the reason they downgraded traps.
    its very large yeah but the mw now showing the
    eyewall has finally closed off.? it always takes
    time for the winds to catch up.
     
    #617 jwx, Mar 27, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2017
  18. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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  19. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dunno ... gut says she is too close to land and frictional interaction will begin to hamper development ... ordinarily I'd agree with you, and if she was another 300km out to sea with the same SSTs and shear environment I'd also expect rapid intensification, but the eyewall is just 190km off the coast. My gut has been known to be wrong, but I generally go with it! :)
     
  20. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Model runs have a very wet East coast QLD over the next few days regardless of her strength! She will stick around.
     
  21. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    I think we will see a major sshs within the next 8hrs,
    then over night warming of the eye hope's you are right traps, but rbtops suggesting to me explosive intensification is still V/likely.

    Popcorn time.
    Just me 2 cents .

    [​IMG]

    its warming @ 700mb within wall.
     
    #621 jwx, Mar 27, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2017
  22. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a beautiful thing.
    If you know what I mean.
    Be scary as shit if it's headed your way.
    [​IMG]
     
  23. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mackay viz.
     
  24. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    If that eye clears out its booooooom.
     
  25. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Current Intensity Analysis


    UW - CIMSS
    ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
    ADT-Version 8.2.1
    Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

    ----- Current Analysis -----
    Date : 27 MAR 2017 Time : 023000 UTC
    Lat : 19:19:23 S Lon : 150:13:54 E


    CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
    5.3 / 957.1mb/ 97.2kt


    Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
    5.3 5.8 5.8

    Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

    Center Temp : -18.2C Cloud Region Temp : -69.9C

    Scene Type : EYE


    If it can warm into + should see 120KT+ system. SSHS 4

    You need to look at all the data.
     
  26. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Am I imagining counter-rotating eyewall vortices from the Himawari 12:00 pm satellite images onwards?
     
  27. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    you should have put input here jelly,cant see the point of 70 pages
    of dribble and likely 10 of fact.
     
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  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    You can't follow it. There's like a new page every hour. Most of it is shit.
     
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  29. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  30. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Big chance of that rush will likely be a awesome sight if the eye clears
    right out. Its already a very powerful system now as you know.

    The vids posted above are nothin compared to what the core winds
    would be.
     
  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Majestic from the Satellite.
     
  32. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    If we go Cat 4, I reckon the eye will fully clear out.
     
  33. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Aussie or sshs.
     
  34. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    wz ?
     
  35. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    you're right, she's a thing of beauty.

    A little side note and sorry to be a little off topic here but check out all that speckled cloud hovering around tassy and behind. winter on it's way? ;)
     
  36. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Have a look at the link @trappers put up earlier ^^
     
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  37. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    that is seriously cool!!!
     
  38. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Because cool. Taken ~10min ago ... Click on pic and then select sizes down bottom right and select "original" for silly large version (5000x5000).

    [​IMG]
     
  39. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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  40. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Aussie for Aussie cyclones, sshs for NA hurricanes. So Aussie
     
  41. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  42. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, they are fast forming / rising convective plumes that have not yet "topped out".

    If they are REALLY fast they will appear smooth as they are covered by pileus clouds
     
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  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    My pretty amateur guess for landfall would be Bowen Weak Cat 4 Aussie at about 9am tomorrow with 240kph winds along the coast Bowen and Airlie Beach.

    Reasoning:
    [​IMG] [​IMG]
    HWRF is slightly south of Bowen and EC is slightly north of Bowen (Abbot Point), which are my two favourite models for cyclones. As you can see about 80kt gusts, in the eyewall. I think the cyclone will be a fair bit stronger on landfall than the EC prog with the official BOM guidance showing a much stronger wind forecast than EC. With good conditions for intensification, I'd doubt EC's wind prog comes to fruitation.
     
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  44. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    If the eye clears out my thinking is by morning a aussie5,
    high end sshs cat4. Looking a similar size cyclone to what
    Hurricane Katrina was. Big surge.Not suggesting the same
    scenario just a size compassion.
     
    #644 jwx, Mar 27, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2017
  45. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    That 80kts is for a ten-min w/s hwrf divide by 1.44 and you
    have a major cane /1min

    EDIT should have added this system is intensifying rapidly now.
     
    #645 jwx, Mar 27, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2017
  46. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest MW and composites look excellent for a mid 3 to low 4 (Aus), but you can see how close she is to land.

    Sorry jwx, still don't recon she'll get too much stronger than she is now unless she sits here and does not move westward for another 6-12hrs.
    [​IMG]
     
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  47. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Would be interesting to see what a DOVRAK of the latest IR says.
     
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  48. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Don't think we get a good one traps until the system stops intensifying
    atm i would think about 6.2 raw maybe a little more..
     
  49. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    See how goes traps from here'in looks to be developing a third outflow
    channel on radar and on those images.

    Raws @6.3
    2017MAR27 061000 5.3 956.9 97.2 5.0 5.5 6.3
     
    #649 jwx, Mar 27, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2017
  50. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can nearly feel it.

    [​IMG]