Cyclone season 2016/17

Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by Claude Cat, Jan 28, 2016.

  1. whether

    whether Hard Yards

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    Hamilton Island just on the edge of the eye at present. Since 11.30 last night winds have not been below 100kph.
     
  2. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    check Oz cyclone chaser fb.
    they streaming live
     
  3. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    This system does not like Hamilton Island.
     
  4. maverik

    maverik Hard Yards

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    Chuck Norris sighted kite boarding there.
     
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  5. maverik

    maverik Hard Yards

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    In his lunch break after building a shelter.
     
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  6. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still gusting well above 200km/h.

    That's some decent damage. Not sure if the temps are accurate, but sitting mid thirties, with that wind and torrential rain, the island landscapes are going to look pretty battered after this.
     
  7. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Debbie is getting reorganised after the earlier erc.
    In layman terms she's strengthening. Another,
    upgrade is likely.
     
  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hayman Island is right in the eye at the moment according to Bowen Radar. Should make landfall just north of Airlie Beach.
     
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  9. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Have friends bunkered down in Airlie after cutting short their Whitsunday sailing trip.. they figure they may be a few days late returning to work
     
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  10. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Strong Cat 4. My eyes are glued to that to see if it goes over 280kph. Not that it makes much difference to people there.
     
  12. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cyclone Porn
    or is it Debbie does NQ ....
    [​IMG]
     
  13. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Proserpine next best.

     
  14. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wind has moved around on Hamilton Is from WNW now
    Wing gusting to 260km/hr...that's pretty full on....it's been averaging around 180km/hr for about three hours...BOM.
     
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  15. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wel, right on the eye - Hamilton Is. Obs. -edit hayman Is is in the middle of the eye, hamilton is on the edge.
     
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  16. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Now wind coming from West at midday ish on Hamilton Is.
     
  17. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    Looking at BoM obs, Hamilton Island seems to be a whopping 10 degrees warmer than nearby stations and it's still the closest one to the cyclone. Can any of u weather gurus explain? Or is it just broken.
     
  18. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Broken.

    The synchrotach (wind direction instrument) seems to have broken too.
     
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  19. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    Ah. So it seems. Cheers
     
  20. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Live feed U tube ....is looking scary ..just saw this gust must have been in high 200km range just push trees almost in to horizontal position..
    Aussiemechandtech junkies....not a place to be camping say Bears..:emoji_disappointed:
     
  21. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Eye of this cyclone appears to be just on Qld Coast now according to,satellite image...
     
  22. GS

    GS A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Watching these cyclones and their winds always reminds me of Douglas Mawsons 'Home of the Blizzard', where in July 1913 they recorded, "For eight hours it maintained an average of one hundred and seven miles an hour, and the timbers of the Hut seemed to be jarred and wrenched as the wind throbbed in its mightier gusts. These were the highest wind velocities recorded during our two years’ residence in Adélie Land and are probably the highest sustained velocities ever reported from a meteorological station."

    And at the end of the month,"July concluded its stormy career with the astonishing wind average of 63.6 miles an hour"

    A month of winds averaging over 100kmh! Unbelievable!
     
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  23. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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  24. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  25. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    :)
    Going off that there was a period they got bona fides 5 wind.on the
    island.
     
  26. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    An average speed Just below 200km close to 9am. Sure wos moving like freight train.
    Good that was not kept up for very long...... time :thumbs:
     
  27. Ultra

    Ultra One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    thats one hell of a fast freight train.
     
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  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Now Cat 3. It's weakening.
     
  29. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    :emoji_crying_cat_face: Iam weakening now...:emoji_face_palm: I have been down graded...

    :emoji_disappointed_relieved:
     
  30. dogski

    dogski Addicted

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    NE nsw and SE qld are gunna get smashed on thurs/fri with Tweed Heads getting up 200mm both days
    Probably could be more for Bris,Goldie and SCoast
     
  31. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Goodnight NQ.
    Be thinking of you as she runs out of gas , albeit slowly.
    A good soaking and a battering definately on the cards for SEQ....
    [​IMG]
     
  32. bomber

    bomber One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    My daughter lives in Mackay and all safe after a lot of rain. Asked her how strong the wind was, made the pet Labrador's ears stand up like a German Shepherds :)
     
  33. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Looks a bit wet for us, which is good.................just not too wet please!!
    Have football this weekend.
     
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  34. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Hopefully gives the Queensland farmers a good soak. Just hope the flooding isn't too damaging.
     
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  35. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    I saw a comment on Facebook about another system in about two weeks time. Anyone got access to a model that can see that far ahead?
     
  36. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Think when everything was getting pretty ferocious between 9.41 & 9.42 is when the synchrotach dropped it's bundle.

    9.41 - ESE, gusting at 224km/h, 9.42 NW, gusting at 224 km/h with pressure still dropping, fast.

    The well populated coast is one thing, but christ those islands must have sustained some damage. Wouldn't be a leaf left on a tree I'd imagine.
     
  37. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    #737 nfip, Mar 29, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2017
  38. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    JWX can access models of dust particles from the dark side of the moon....
     
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  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    There's what looks like a developing cyclone in the far top left corner on the final day of EPS Control, the 11th of April. This is off Western Australia though. And I doubt much accuracy at all.
     
  40. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS for comparison.
    East coast looking damp big fetching H , again.
    Take with grain of salt.

    [​IMG]
     
  41. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I figure the SSTs on the west coast atm put a lid on any sustained intensification
     
  42. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  43. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ha e a look at the anomoly though...pretty sure we have been in a situation of the coral sea being much warmer than average and west coast cooler than average.
     
  44. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Im just a lay weather hack, but I'm not sure what the anomaly has to do with the sst's required for cyclonic build up?

    Isn't it an air v sst variance, usually requiring sst > 26 deg?
     
  45. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    The only model that can do that is the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system (i.e. the coupled ocean atmosphere model) which applies Frederic Vitart's storm tracker to produce probability maps of storm strike out to 4 weeks.

    You can't do an accurate NWP forecast from 14 days and beyond as the evolution of the ocean affects the atmosphere, and vice versa.
     
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  46. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's lots of other coupled ocean atmosphere models that can be used to forecast cyclone probability. And EC Monthly Cyclone products cost about $120000, so the use to the public and a forum like this is nothing. There are seasonal models that offer similar products with similar accuracy.
     
  47. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    AFAIK the EC are the only centre that produce specific TC products from their coupled ocean-atmosphere model.

    Yes there are several seasonal prediction models in existence but none of them extract storm tracks by default, although the UKMO is working on it for GloSea.
     
  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    You can determine tropical cyclone risk by analysing moisture and wind data from other seasonal models. And like I said, the public doesn't have any access to their forecasts. And any seasonal forecasting model cannot accurately forecast the creation of a complex system. If EC can't do it in a 10 day time period, it ain't gonna be able to do a 20 day forecast.
     
  49. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    see here
    [​IMG]
    from http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?c=ssta
    worth noting the "debbie" effect .. I figure the anomoly picks up other local factors like ocean depth and "patterns of climate " for want of a better term.
     
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  50. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can I interpret that with the intense or sustained convection from Debbie this has introduced an upwelling in the effected Ocean area..
    Maybe not so much physically , but of a heat transfer (convection) in the water .
    ?