Cyclone Cyclone season 2016/17

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by Claude Cat, Jan 28, 2016.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's defnitely a chance for a cyclone off NW Australia. It's just that the Coral Sea can support bigger systems like Debbie with the higher anomaly
    yeah cyclones suck the heat out of the ocean for their strength, especially severe ones like Debbie.
     
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  2. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I dont doubt cyclones can and will foe. Ofc tbe NW under the current condirions. I doubt their ability to endure in such.
     
  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Caleb did well for several days.
     
  4. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Sarcasm back @u
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    There looks a chance to the east, thinking that is the area you
    would be interested in.Week 2+ cckw anom modelled to be over the CS, will be worth keeping a eye on for another TC.

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a possibility. We'll see how the MJO goes in the next week or so.
     
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  7. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    April is the last official month for the Australian season and April cyclones are rare. I guess it can't be ruled out.
     
  8. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gotta say .... post of the year jwx !
    #496

    ECMWF was the first ( punter level ) to pick up on Debbie and hold the plot.
    The others only came into agreement 4 or 5 days out. iirc.

    Lets see how this one goes for the West next week.
    [​IMG]
     
  9. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    The best cyclone i have ever seen in the basin, Monica was a April special.

    .
     
    #759 jwx, Mar 29, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2017
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  10. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    According to the ABC news website the wind was so strong it blew the "Pacific Highway" all the way to Proserpine.
     
  11. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    EC MT firing up again along SPCZ active week2.
    See how goes.

    [​IMG]
     
    #761 jwx, Mar 29, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2017
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  12. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    SPCZ = South Pacific Cyclone Zone ???
     
  13. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Yes nfip to the above question.

    GFS ens are also showing the low pressure over spcz.
    Its just a long range look atm. If anything was to,
    crank up to early so say where it may go.

    just my 2 cents.



    [​IMG]
     
    #763 jwx, Mar 29, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2017
  14. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  15. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is this what I was suggesting earlier?
     
  16. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sooo if Debbie heads back to sea as is suggested by some models ....
    [​IMG]

    we have compatible SST ...
    [​IMG]

    not likely but plausible she redevelop as a TC ?

    The tropical low will continue never the less.
     
  17. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seven weather said tonight she would become an ECL. Ground cooler maybe or too much tropical moisture ?
     
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  18. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  19. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Picks up frontal features

    [​IMG]
    Powerful extratropical low, extratropical lows are low pressure centres at the surface.
     
    #769 jwx, Mar 29, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2017
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  20. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Qld government have made a decision in the last hour to close all schools in SE Qld today!!!!!
    All kids are already at school, so parents have been asked to collect their kids and go home.
     
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  21. sharkbait

    sharkbait One of Us

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    Yep, work from home day casting the Margie's comp to the TV. Thanks Debbie :D
     
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  22. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Will be interesting to see how the brisbane river fare's
    over the week, when all water from the upper tributary's drains
    in the catchment then into the r/system.
     
    #772 jwx, Mar 30, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2017
  23. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Better than the Trains today we hope .
     
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  24. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Lots of questions from the media today directed towards the governments management of dams over the next 24 / 48 hours.
    We scored 100mm overnight (sunshine coast). Plenty coming down up near Gladstone by the looks, so more on the way for us today/tonight.
     
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  25. dibl0c

    dibl0c coolstorydiblocâ„¢ Ski Pass: Gold

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    #shitadelaide or #brisbogan ... classy.
    Tad moist in Brisbogan.
     
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  26. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    #776 jwx, Mar 30, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2017
  27. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Those Qld Strippers may have to relocate to Melb for a little while.....this could be some good news as a result of the Cat...
     
  28. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Relocate?.................or just returning home?
    Most of the strippers I know come from ...............whoops hold on slip of the tongue. LOL
     
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  29. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    remember ...
    admit nothing , deny everything and make counter allegations.
     
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  30. sharkbait

    sharkbait One of Us

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    SEQ schools closed tomorrow too. Happy early easter holidays kids!

    Sounds like they want to shut down the whole place tonight. But it's members draw at club burleigh dammit!
     
  31. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friend in Lismore is saying they are expecting a high of 12m, which is higher than the 1974 floods. Lot of water there atm.
     
  32. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    Not really a river problem for Brisbane at this stage, need more rain, hopefully clears by early Am tomorrow
    Wivenhoe to rise 50cm , all good. I think it can take another 5m
     
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  33. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    They've had 162 mm .
    160 at Murwillumbah.

    edit : quoting ninemsn

    Residents have been ordered to evacuate ahead of major flooding as northern NSW is lashed by heavy rain caused by the remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Debbie clashing with a cold front.

    The State Emergency Service advised this afternoon that people within the South Murwillumbah, Condong and Tumbulgum areas should leave.


    Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/national/20...ie-s-remnants-to-lash-nsw#diPF0KjAQI0ToWo5.99
     
    #783 nfip, Mar 30, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2017
  34. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Always a nice phenomenon to observe
     
  35. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep they have issued an evac notice for Lismore CBD. My mate is drinking beer and wondering how his shop will go.
     
  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GEM with 3 simultaneous developing cyclones late next weekend. Seems to coincide with the MV MJO forecast. No other NWP models showing developing cyclones towards the coast, just various tropical lows mainly NW of WA.
     
  37. parkmonkey

    parkmonkey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Updated, 6.15 pm: The SES is directing residents of Lismore CBD, North and South Lismore, Tweed Heads South and West, South Murwillumbah, Condong and Tumbulgum, to evacuate where safe transit exists and they are able to do so.

    Residents are urged not delay their evacuation. Roads will be congested or closed. You could become trapped and need rescue. Remaining in flooded areas is dangerous and may place your life at risk.

    Wherever possible, people should go and stay with family or friends, or make other accommodation arrangements. For people who need assistance an evacuation centre has been set up at Kings Sacred Heart (Catholic Hall) Murwillumbah Street, Murwillumbah.

    Rocky Creek Dam has reached Amber Alert due to the significant rainfall. The structural integrity of the dam remains intact.

    The dam levels are being closely monitored and if current rainfall intensity continues this alert may escalate tonight. The dam level is currently 1.03m over the spillway and continuing to rise.

    Residents downstream of the dam are asked to commence preparation for evacuation.

    Please continue to listen to your radio for further updates and instructions.
     
  38. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    A mate just west of Murbah got the text from the SES telling him to evacuate immediately. He would have happily done so if his driveway and road hadn't been underwater since this morning.
     
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  39. parkmonkey

    parkmonkey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    On a wave or mountain face near you.
    200mm forecast over night
     
  40. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks rather likely.. 3 hr accumulations.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    worst of it over (per GFS here)

    [​IMG]
     
  41. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Gone past us now. Winds really blew up towards the end of it. Tree's and lines down. Everything shut.........even the pub!!!!
     
  42. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like the worst has gone to sea viewing Himwari IR

    edit : as far as Sunny Coast is concerned
     
    #792 nfip, Mar 30, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2017
  43. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Young bloke went for a surf this arvo with a couple of his mates. "Only time you can surf the points without a crowd" was the reason. Came home on dark and said it was so funny. Couldn't jump off the rocks at the pot due to the wind!!!!! One of his mates was blown back over the rocks by the wind whilst trying to jump in. Wet rocks and 100k wind!!! Kids!!!! LOL
     
  44. cruisin along

    cruisin along A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nearly got stuck in Murwillumbah today .... experienced an aquaplaning in the car then needed to drive through foot high water to get out of the town area. Couple of landslips on the hilly road out as well. Mazda car went great .... heart rate intense but finally got home safe.
    Still bloody raining and my school is apparently open tomorrow but how I get there is the unknown as the freeway frequently floods and the Coast road passes the areas they have evacuated.....
    So me thinks I may have an extra day at home tomorrow.
     
  45. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    That rain radar looks threatening right over Byron Bay and the NSW/QLD border....
     
  46. parkmonkey

    parkmonkey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Steady rain since the morning but we really aren't copping to much, all going around the back of us. Only 34mm since 9am, lismore has had 264 since 9am and could end up with close to 500mm in 24hrs
     
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  47. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Same here, was generally OK close to the coast, hinterland much heavier. Late this arvo blew up here. Lots of broken trees, lines etc. in a 1 hour period.
     
  48. cqen2l

    cqen2l Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    :eek:
     
  49. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    News here saying Tweed River breaking its banks now.
     
  50. parkmonkey

    parkmonkey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Local storm chasers suggesting Lismore will be close to 400mm by midnight and over 500 by morning