Cyclone Cyclone season 2016/17

Cuddles

One of Us
Jul 11, 2015
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cruisin along

Free at last
Ski Pass
Jan 1, 2007
8,250
4,462
563
CC Terrigal area
Steady rain since the morning but we really aren't copping to much, all going around the back of us. Only 34mm since 9am, lismore has had 264 since 9am and could end up with close to 500mm in 24hrs
You have been lucky .......absolutely pelting down here and has been since 4pm ...according to neighbour we have had 200mm since lunch time and that was at 10pm tonight.
I am also right on the coast at Potty.
 
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Ubiquitous Steve

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Feb 29, 2008
10,562
4,688
813
Qld/NSW radar looking a whole lot better now looks like most Sh..t has moved just off shore now in the early hours of this morning.Hope this is the case for you :)guys up in Nth NSW coastal regions...:thumbs:
 
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nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
21,931
26,596
1,063
Yuin Country
Going to be a terrible day up around Lismore , Murwillumbah to say the very least.
She's been one mother of a storm .
Thoughts are with all those effected.
 

davidg

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Feb 4, 2009
15,863
22,108
813
Lower BM's
Footage taken just now
:( man that is some serious flooding. Looks like the Wilson river will peak at about 11.5m sometime this morning, up to 540mm in 24 hours across the Wilson River valley! At least the rain has cleared out for now.
 

telecrag

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Oct 12, 2007
31,863
47,093
1,063
Friends shop in Lismore has water more than half way up it, I reckon it may peak higher.
 

telecrag

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Oct 12, 2007
31,863
47,093
1,063
I dont know how mine is going to go, it looks bad, he is not sure if insurance will cover it. I suggested he sue the council for not making the levy higher.
 

Zimboo

A Local
Aug 28, 2014
6,831
2,785
563
Sewage plant / pump station failure Murwillumbah. Council asking residents not to use water/toilets etc. :eek:
Council civil works plant under water in Sth Murwillumbah, so no access to maintenance equipment.
 

jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
477
723
193
Cut in here for a brief look @ the tropics.
dccf0155d8.png

Lots of upper-level divergence/uplift is still centred over the Indonesia,
region the walker cell has been parked there since the la-nina re-amearged, months ago.

dcebd60e03.png

Current walker cell position, is where it should be in nina/neutral
conditions.



dce90e1a5e.png

GFS indicating the U-level divergence spreading E along the
EQ and the top-end and out along the Spac also active.
What you would see with a passing cckw.




dce9e36c53.png

GFS spins up a disturbance in the arafura sea and a smaller one
in the sw of the GOC.


dceac87a91.png


Precip signature's of the disturbances.
 

jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
477
723
193
Yeah its a nice gesture on behalf of STIHL.

The other mob is just out to make a buck from,
videos of the storm.
 

nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
21,931
26,596
1,063
Yuin Country
Yeah I get that.
But do you reckon they going to make more $ than what it cost them all to chase ?
 

jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
477
723
193
Cut in here for a brief look @ the tropics.
dccf0155d8.png

Lots of upper-level divergence/uplift is still centred over the Indonesia,
region the walker cell has been parked there since the la-nina re-amearged, months ago.

dcebd60e03.png

Current walker cell position, is where it should be in nina/neutral
conditions.



dce90e1a5e.png

GFS indicating the U-level divergence spreading E along the
EQ and the top-end and out along the Spac also active.
What you would see with a passing cckw.




dce9e36c53.png

GFS spins up a disturbance in the arafura sea and a smaller one
in the sw of the GOC.


dceac87a91.png


Precip signature's of the disturbances.


EC 00z giving some weight to a possible TC topend and one
in the spac mid April.

e344a0397c.png



e34fae1307.png
 

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
12,855
20,633
813
Canberra
Yeah there seems to be a tropical low NW of WA on most models including GFS, GEM and EC. Only GEM and GFS seem to show cyclogenesis in the system.

GEM is showing another tropical low, undergoing cyclogenesis in the Northern Coral Sea too.
 

jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
477
723
193
CMC is a good snow model, as a tropical model for sniffing
out systems its not worth 1 indonesian rupiah .:)
 

jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
477
723
193
Last edited:

Seafm

Too far from the snow
Ski Pass
Jun 5, 2014
6,070
7,582
563
60
Cairns, Queensland

jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
477
723
193
Without EC/GFS support i don't have any interest in that model storm.

You not have got around to answering if you have sighted any dragonfly aka horse- shoe fly,

Being from the tropic's you would know what that usually means.
 
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jwx

One of Us
Feb 8, 2017
477
723
193
Yeah I get that.
But do you reckon they going to make more $ than what it cost them all to chase ?
If you think the public should chip $ in then you should join their subscriber base if that's your thing.:)
 
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nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
21,931
26,596
1,063
Yuin Country
If you think the public should chip $ in then you should join their subscriber base if that's your thing.:)
Thought about it when I first saw their stuff but no...
Having second thoughts about my wz upgrade , most you can track down for free, tho the extras does work for me.
 
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Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Aug 24, 2015
12,855
20,633
813
Canberra
Thought about it when I first saw their stuff but no...
Having second thoughts about my wz upgrade , most you can track down for free, tho the extras does work for me.
They have EPS to 15 days at WZ, don't they?
 
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