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Cyclone season 2016/17

Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by Claude Cat, Jan 28, 2016.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah that's EPS, really good data. That's the mean, not the Control though.
     
    nfip likes this.
  2. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's an EC-deterministic 10 day also
     
  3. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    #853 jwx, Apr 2, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2017
    nfip likes this.
  4. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Farm online looks very much like wz
     
    jwx likes this.
  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wait who are you talking about before WZ?
     
  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's because it's a flipping copy. Both that site and weatherzone are owned by Fairfax though.
     
  7. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    93P INVEST 170402 0600 15.8S 165.6W SHEM 15 1010

    Never took long its out around the date line east of 160.
     
  8. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    farmline has been around for years its WZ rural.
     
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  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    Pretty awesome cross sections of Invest 93P currently off Fiji. This is at it's height of 969hPa. The plots really tell you what's happening in the storm at a given time. Not that they will be correct being 6 days out.
     
  10. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oz cyclone Chasers.
    They have subscription access to ....charts , video, something...
    Their on site footage Debbie was cool but no thx ....
     
  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ahhh I see... I've read their posts on WZ.
    Not exactly professional chasers though.
     
    jwx likes this.
  12. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some good stuff on fb.
    For us punters
     
  13. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    From what i got to see streaming channel 7 and 9 i think tv media,
    coverage was good enough. Its different when storms are in the
    Wpac place like the PI and Taiwan don't cover cyclones like
    the local oz media did and that's when pro global chasers are
    important to get the landfall data and damage report out to
    the world. James Reynolds and Icyclone are numero uno
    its light years between them and the current storm chasers.
    .
     
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  14. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    SPCZ south pacific convergence zone.

    [​IMG]


    FQPS01 NFFN 010600
    MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
    EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W.
    ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and
    120W
    issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Apr 010800 UTC.

    PART 1 : WARNINGNIL

    PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Apr 020600 UTC.

    LOW L1 CENTRE [1005HPA] ANLAYSED NEAR 13.2S 168.8W AT 010600UTC.
    SLOW MOVING. POSTION POOR.

    LOW L2 CENTRE [1006HPA] ANLAYSED NEAR 11.9S 172.1E AT 010600UTC. SLOW
    MOVING. POSTION POOR.

    LOW L3 CENTRE [1006HPA] ANLAYSED NEAR 21.3S 154.8W AT 010600UTC. SLOW
    MOVING. POSTION POOR.
     
    #864 jwx, Apr 2, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2017
  15. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    EC and GEFS ens still on board with the NW system.

    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]

    Good support on EPS for a NW TC.
     
    #865 jwx, Apr 2, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2017
    Jellybeans likes this.
  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    The thing with cyclone chasing is anyone can do it and there's not much that separates the amateurs and professionals, except the latter do it all the time and make money from it and the former don't do either.
     
  17. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    See dragonflies all the time or is this a trick question.
     
  18. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    No trick dragon fies usually make a showing a few weeks before the
    dry season fully kicks in across the topend.
     
  19. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    That is something i will never agree on. Send amateurs into sshs cat5
    super typhoons and its likely a one way ticket.

    Systems like super typhoon Haiyan/Hurricane Patrica are not for
    amateurs.

    Next time i chat with James i will put that to him J.:)
    He gets on another wx platform i post on.
     
    #869 jwx, Apr 2, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2017
  20. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was meaning Cat 1s not Super Typhoons!!! And besides amateurs tend to not be safety averse if you know what I mean. And if I check my twitter feed, there's lots of amateur cyclone chasers there who are probably making a bad name for the profession (like walking in a Cat 4 sshs cyclone and driving to areas under storm surges) there's a lot of dumb people who think they are better than Mother Nature. And boy do they cop it! The professionals are more safety averse, but there's always gonna be tragedies with such a dangerous job.
    And...

    I do not recommend going into a cyclone of any intensity unless you know what you are doing. Things can change quickly.

    My previous statement was more a comment about what I see and not what I recommend. Sorry if you took it the wrong way.
     
  21. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    And I'll put James on my twitter feed :)
     
  22. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Never really thought about it. I did pick up a dead one in the garage this morning though. There are other local myths and legends that abound up here as well that tie in with the weather. Black cockatoos in the area suggest rain is imminent along with hearing the call of the storm bird. Ants suddenly on the move is another one which I believe in. When I was a kid in Townsville a tree that overhung the house had a sizeable population of green ants and on this particular day they all suddenly moved inside. That night we got one of the biggest thunderstorms I'd ever seen.
    But this is the one that really stumps me. So many of the Cairns locals have always said that the big cyclones never come here because of the mountains. After living here for 30 years now I'm starting to believe it is true. In 1986 Cyclone Winifred skirted past Cairns and immediately turned west once it had cleared Mt Bellenden Kerr and Bartle Frere and made a near direct hit on Innisfail. In 1990 Cyclone Joy was heading directly for us and promptly stopped 80 km short and sat there for two days before moving away to the south east. In 2006 Larry appeared to line Cairns up but again poor old Innisfail copped it. Yasi was on target for the Cairns/ Babinda area but again at the last minute swung away and smashed Innisfail and all places south to Townsville.
    This theory was discussed on local radio after Winifred with the local BOM office and of course they could not comprehend how a mile high mountain range could stop a 5_10 mile high storm in its tracks. Sure there have been 3 or 4 cyclones that have made landfall at or near Cairns within this period but none that have been classed as being severe or worse.
    I know that many factors determine the final destination of any significant weather system and the local terrain is not supposed to be one of them but I can't help wondering if sometimes it does play a part.
     
    #872 Seafm, Apr 2, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2017
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  23. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Wrong platform :)
     
  24. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't like twitter?
     
  25. dibl0c

    dibl0c A man without wasta is not a man! Ski Pass: Gold

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    #shitadelaide or #brisbogan ... take your pick.
    Just did the last flight out of Rockhampton this morning. Fitzroy River is breaking. The water is at the airport fence.
     
  26. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    GFS still solid with the Arafura Sea TC.
     
  27. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]


    EC ups the stakes with a Major off the NW.
     
  28. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    News tonight said warmest March for Brisbane ever in recorded history.
     
  29. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Running to script.
     
    #879 jwx, Apr 5, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2017
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  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's gonna be a cyclone or two, or at the very least some cyclogenesis off the NW WA Coast. The models are unanimous(Except NAVGEM). The question is where it goes. Most model guidance shows two cyclones forming and both moving west away from the mainland.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  31. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    likely be 4 invest tc chances up across the shem ,2 in the Aussie basin and 2 in the spac.That leaves 2 more invest chances still to come.
    2 are already on the radar, 1 has a TCFA atm in the spac.


    93P INVEST 170405 0600 19.8S 170.5W SHEM 30 1000 /spac
    94S INVEST 170405 0600 11.4S 112.7E SHEM 15 1010 / NW 0Z
     
  32. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like it's not over yet.
     
  33. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    The invest/low off the NW now 94s will v/likely go west.

    The other low to follow on from the arafura sea will likely re- curve off WA
    and land fall as a strong system.
     
  34. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Counts upto 3 active systems across the shem atm.

    14P FOURTEEN 170405 1800 20.6S 170.5W SHEM 35 998
    94S INVEST 170406 0000 12.9S 111.0E SHEM 30 1000
    95P INVEST 170405 1800 12.2S 176.4E SHEM 15 1010




    [​IMG]

    The system that has my most interest is still yet to come. EC has
    high probs it will form N of Dawin.
     
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  35. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
    Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Thursday 6 April 2017
    for the period until midnight CST Sunday 9 April 2017.

    Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
    Nil.

    Potential Cyclones:

    A weak tropical low has formed within the monsoon trough over the Arafura Sea. The low is likely to gradually strengthen later in the weekend and early next week as it moves southwest towards the Timor Sea.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  36. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Number six - maybe
     
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  37. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    That system already is a cyclone,expect the name on the next
    advisory..

    [​IMG]

    Clear cut, its a minimal cyclone and likely @40kts.
     
    #887 jwx, Apr 6, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2017
  38. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    I don't know whats with the Bom this season, the ascat pass
    proves beyond doubt the system is a 45kt cat1 aussie cyclone.
    40kts barbs and 45kts around the core.
     
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  39. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    IDW24000
    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
    Western Australia

    TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
    Issued at 2:40 am WST on Friday 7 April 2017
    BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
    TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

    Tropical Cyclone Ernie (Category 1) was located at2:00 am AWST near 14.1S
    110.9E,
    that is 690 km southeast of Christmas Island [and 940 km north northwest of
    Exmouth] and moving south southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

    Tropical Cyclone Ernie is developing over open waters and will track towards
    the south on Friday. Over the weekend the system will start moving towards the
    west southwest and should weaken later on Sunday.

    Gales are not expected on Christmas Island or the WA mainland.



    [​IMG]
     
  40. MarkV

    MarkV One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any potential for the moisture in this system to eventually make the mainland?
     
  41. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Big RI ...now has a eye is a atleast a cat3 atm.
     
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  42. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Mmmmmmmm........surfing on the east coast of Bali will be gooooood!!!!!
     
  43. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    15S ERNIE 170407 0000 14.9S 110.4E SHEM 65kts 974

    [​IMG]

    TXXS27 KNES 070050
    TCSSIO

    A. 15S (ERNIE)

    B. 06/2330Z

    C. 14.8S

    D. 110.4E

    E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

    F. T5.0/5.0/D3.0/24HRS

    G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

    H. REMARKS...LG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN B AND SURROUNDED BY W RESULTING IN A
    DT OF 6.0 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT AND 0.5 ADDED AS A BANDING FEATURE. PT IS
    ADJUSTED TO 4.0 FROM A MET OF 3.5 WHICH WAS BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT
    OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE DT OF 5.2, WHICH
    WAS CALCULATED HOURLY FROM 1830Z TO 2330Z AND JUSTIFIES BREAKING DVORAK
    CONSTRAINTS.
     
    #893 jwx, Apr 7, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2017
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  44. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    Ernie looks to making his run to a cat5, intensifying at a rate agencies and sat data will take time to catchup.
     
    #894 jwx, Apr 7, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2017
  45. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    SSTs are certainly favourabe
    [​IMG]
     
  46. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    ITs a the EQ rossby/wave that's passing that is fuelling,
    Ernie. Atmospheric conditions along with the warm sst
    are near perfect atm.

    [​IMG]

    Very fertile conditions, These waves travel east to west and make
    for very unstable conditions cyclones thrive on. Its not uncommon to see duel lows with a strong EQ/rw.

    SST's have been very warm in that area all season.
     
    #896 jwx, Apr 7, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2017
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  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    BOM was predicting Ernie to be a Cat 2 cyclone just 24 hours ago. Now it's a Cat 4 cyclone!!! Glad it's in the middle of nowhere.
     
  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Very interesting about the ER waves. I knew they did something to cyclones, but not create Cat 4 cyclones!
     
  49. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    I have witnessed many cyclones and typhoons go ballistic when
    they line up with a EQ /rwave.

    BTW thanks for the graphic jelly:).
     
    #899 jwx, Apr 7, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2017
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  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a great resource, for OLR observations and etc.
    Good knowledge to know.