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Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by Claude Cat, Jan 28, 2016.
Yeah that's EPS, really good data. That's the mean, not the Control though.
There's an EC-deterministic 10 day also
Yeah give ya half a rupiah for those plots.
Tropical tidbits /Bom land and water plots imo are a better option.
The sat on the Bom site is great and radar is free.
Farm online looks very much like wz
Wait who are you talking about before WZ?
That's because it's a flipping copy. Both that site and weatherzone are owned by Fairfax though.
93P INVEST 170402 0600 15.8S 165.6W SHEM 15 1010
Never took long its out around the date line east of 160.
farmline has been around for years its WZ rural.
Pretty awesome cross sections of Invest 93P currently off Fiji. This is at it's height of 969hPa. The plots really tell you what's happening in the storm at a given time. Not that they will be correct being 6 days out.
Oz cyclone Chasers.
They have subscription access to ....charts , video, something...
Their on site footage Debbie was cool but no thx ....
Ahhh I see... I've read their posts on WZ.
Not exactly professional chasers though.
Some good stuff on fb.
For us punters
From what i got to see streaming channel 7 and 9 i think tv media,
coverage was good enough. Its different when storms are in the
Wpac place like the PI and Taiwan don't cover cyclones like
the local oz media did and that's when pro global chasers are
important to get the landfall data and damage report out to
the world. James Reynolds and Icyclone are numero uno
its light years between them and the current storm chasers..
SPCZ south pacific convergence zone.
FQPS01 NFFN 010600
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and
issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Apr 010800 UTC.
PART 1 : WARNINGNIL
PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Apr 020600 UTC.
LOW L1 CENTRE [1005HPA] ANLAYSED NEAR 13.2S 168.8W AT 010600UTC.
SLOW MOVING. POSTION POOR.
LOW L2 CENTRE [1006HPA] ANLAYSED NEAR 11.9S 172.1E AT 010600UTC. SLOW
MOVING. POSTION POOR.
LOW L3 CENTRE [1006HPA] ANLAYSED NEAR 21.3S 154.8W AT 010600UTC. SLOW
MOVING. POSTION POOR.
EC and GEFS ens still on board with the NW system.
Good support on EPS for a NW TC.
The thing with cyclone chasing is anyone can do it and there's not much that separates the amateurs and professionals, except the latter do it all the time and make money from it and the former don't do either.
See dragonflies all the time or is this a trick question.
No trick dragon fies usually make a showing a few weeks before the
dry season fully kicks in across the topend.
That is something i will never agree on. Send amateurs into sshs cat5
super typhoons and its likely a one way ticket.
Systems like super typhoon Haiyan/Hurricane Patrica are not for
Next time i chat with James i will put that to him J.
He gets on another wx platform i post on.
I was meaning Cat 1s not Super Typhoons!!! And besides amateurs tend to not be safety averse if you know what I mean. And if I check my twitter feed, there's lots of amateur cyclone chasers there who are probably making a bad name for the profession (like walking in a Cat 4 sshs cyclone and driving to areas under storm surges) there's a lot of dumb people who think they are better than Mother Nature. And boy do they cop it! The professionals are more safety averse, but there's always gonna be tragedies with such a dangerous job.
I do not recommend going into a cyclone of any intensity unless you know what you are doing. Things can change quickly.
My previous statement was more a comment about what I see and not what I recommend. Sorry if you took it the wrong way.
And I'll put James on my twitter feed
Never really thought about it. I did pick up a dead one in the garage this morning though. There are other local myths and legends that abound up here as well that tie in with the weather. Black cockatoos in the area suggest rain is imminent along with hearing the call of the storm bird. Ants suddenly on the move is another one which I believe in. When I was a kid in Townsville a tree that overhung the house had a sizeable population of green ants and on this particular day they all suddenly moved inside. That night we got one of the biggest thunderstorms I'd ever seen.
But this is the one that really stumps me. So many of the Cairns locals have always said that the big cyclones never come here because of the mountains. After living here for 30 years now I'm starting to believe it is true. In 1986 Cyclone Winifred skirted past Cairns and immediately turned west once it had cleared Mt Bellenden Kerr and Bartle Frere and made a near direct hit on Innisfail. In 1990 Cyclone Joy was heading directly for us and promptly stopped 80 km short and sat there for two days before moving away to the south east. In 2006 Larry appeared to line Cairns up but again poor old Innisfail copped it. Yasi was on target for the Cairns/ Babinda area but again at the last minute swung away and smashed Innisfail and all places south to Townsville.
This theory was discussed on local radio after Winifred with the local BOM office and of course they could not comprehend how a mile high mountain range could stop a 5_10 mile high storm in its tracks. Sure there have been 3 or 4 cyclones that have made landfall at or near Cairns within this period but none that have been classed as being severe or worse.
I know that many factors determine the final destination of any significant weather system and the local terrain is not supposed to be one of them but I can't help wondering if sometimes it does play a part.
Don't like twitter?
Just did the last flight out of Rockhampton this morning. Fitzroy River is breaking. The water is at the airport fence.
GFS still solid with the Arafura Sea TC.
EC ups the stakes with a Major off the NW.
News tonight said warmest March for Brisbane ever in recorded history.
Running to script.
There's gonna be a cyclone or two, or at the very least some cyclogenesis off the NW WA Coast. The models are unanimous(Except NAVGEM). The question is where it goes. Most model guidance shows two cyclones forming and both moving west away from the mainland.
likely be 4 invest tc chances up across the shem ,2 in the Aussie basin and 2 in the spac.That leaves 2 more invest chances still to come.
2 are already on the radar, 1 has a TCFA atm in the spac.
93P INVEST 170405 0600 19.8S 170.5W SHEM 30 1000 /spac
94S INVEST 170405 0600 11.4S 112.7E SHEM 15 1010 / NW 0Z
Looks like it's not over yet.
The invest/low off the NW now 94s will v/likely go west.
The other low to follow on from the arafura sea will likely re- curve off WA
and land fall as a strong system.
Counts upto 3 active systems across the shem atm.
14P FOURTEEN 170405 1800 20.6S 170.5W SHEM 35 998
94S INVEST 170406 0000 12.9S 111.0E SHEM 30 1000
95P INVEST 170405 1800 12.2S 176.4E SHEM 15 1010
The system that has my most interest is still yet to come. EC has
high probs it will form N of Dawin.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Thursday 6 April 2017
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 9 April 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
A weak tropical low has formed within the monsoon trough over the Arafura Sea. The low is likely to gradually strengthen later in the weekend and early next week as it moves southwest towards the Timor Sea.
Number six - maybe
That system already is a cyclone,expect the name on the next
Clear cut, its a minimal cyclone and likely @40kts.
I don't know whats with the Bom this season, the ascat pass
proves beyond doubt the system is a 45kt cat1 aussie cyclone.
40kts barbs and 45kts around the core.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:40 am WST on Friday 7 April 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
Tropical Cyclone Ernie (Category 1) was located at2:00 am AWST near 14.1S
that is 690 km southeast of Christmas Island [and 940 km north northwest of
Exmouth] and moving south southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Ernie is developing over open waters and will track towards
the south on Friday. Over the weekend the system will start moving towards the
west southwest and should weaken later on Sunday.
Gales are not expected on Christmas Island or the WA mainland.
Any potential for the moisture in this system to eventually make the mainland?
Big RI ...now has a eye is a atleast a cat3 atm.
Mmmmmmmm........surfing on the east coast of Bali will be gooooood!!!!!
15S ERNIE 170407 0000 14.9S 110.4E SHEM 65kts 974
TXXS27 KNES 070050
A. 15S (ERNIE)
H. REMARKS...LG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN B AND SURROUNDED BY W RESULTING IN A
DT OF 6.0 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT AND 0.5 ADDED AS A BANDING FEATURE. PT IS
ADJUSTED TO 4.0 FROM A MET OF 3.5 WHICH WAS BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE DT OF 5.2, WHICH
WAS CALCULATED HOURLY FROM 1830Z TO 2330Z AND JUSTIFIES BREAKING DVORAK
Ernie looks to making his run to a cat5, intensifying at a rate agencies and sat data will take time to catchup.
SSTs are certainly favourabe
ITs a the EQ rossby/wave that's passing that is fuelling,
Ernie. Atmospheric conditions along with the warm sst
are near perfect atm.
Very fertile conditions, These waves travel east to west and make
for very unstable conditions cyclones thrive on. Its not uncommon to see duel lows with a strong EQ/rw.
SST's have been very warm in that area all season.
BOM was predicting Ernie to be a Cat 2 cyclone just 24 hours ago. Now it's a Cat 4 cyclone!!! Glad it's in the middle of nowhere.
Very interesting about the ER waves. I knew they did something to cyclones, but not create Cat 4 cyclones!
I have witnessed many cyclones and typhoons go ballistic when
they line up with a EQ /rwave.
BTW thanks for the graphic jelly.
It's a great resource, for OLR observations and etc.
Good knowledge to know.