1. SPECIAL NOTE TO NEW WEATHERZONE FOLK

    If you recently registered and have not received a confirmation email - please check your 'Spam or Junk' folders. Especially if your email is Hotmail. More help with confirmation issues

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

Cyclone season 2016/17

Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by Claude Cat, Jan 28, 2016.

  1. jwx

    jwx One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2017
    Messages:
    477
    Likes Received:
    723
    I think the system will still have a good shot @ becoming a cat4-5 imo..
    on that note cheers.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    16,994
    Likes Received:
    19,051
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    It's been an interesting Autumn to date, let alone Cyclone season for Aus wouldn't you agree @jwx? A season of extremes in the north and the south with something mild in the mid latitudes....
     
    #952 POW_hungry, Apr 28, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2017
    Jellybeans likes this.
  3. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    46,769
    Likes Received:
    15,714
    Location:
    Melbourne, Oz
    Something to think about.

    On an internet forum once can 'declare' a tropical cyclone whenever you want. In the real world, I would imagine that declaring an active cyclone in Australian waters would require alerts being sent to multiple government agencies, triggering automatic escalation procedures across a while raft of sectors (including private, NGO and volunteer organisations) which cost a lot of time, needless to say money. Such decisions would not be taken lightly and thus would require approval along a chain of command.

    It has been a strange season. Many models have forecast multiple 'phantom' storms, particularly early in the season which eventuated into nothing more than tropical lows. Conversely rapid intensification has also caught out some models and forecasters.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    16,994
    Likes Received:
    19,051
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    *mod edit*
    Australia's BOM... As taxpayers, I think it's fair to say it's one of the few agencies Australia should be proud of. Sure, I only see the public-published content but in my mind, since I trawl through data output on a global scale daily, we have access to some of the best information the meteorological industry produces IMO. Balanced and progressive. It has my vote.
     
    #954 POW_hungry, Apr 28, 2017
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 28, 2017
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    16,994
    Likes Received:
    19,051
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yep, agreed. No doubt they have their reasons - the cyclones of the current season have often flirted with the thresholds and classifications. If these were systems that eventuated into extremes & extraordinary WX then I guess it'd be a different story and jobs would be on the line - perhaps this indicates that calculated and decisive actions have been made this season.
     
  6. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    4,129
    Likes Received:
    3,481
    Location:
    Cairns, Queensland
    Do any other models agree with this? It has happened before so I guess anything is possible.
     
  7. jwx

    jwx One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2017
    Messages:
    477
    Likes Received:
    723

    The reason why systems go unnamed and some unclassified is because the BOM has,
    a Ludicrous definition practice before naming a TC.

    'In the Australian Region to qualify as a tropical cyclone a tropical LOW must be accompanied by gales surrounding more than 50% of the center
    of circulation for a period of at least six hours'.

    What this means is in layman's terms is if a cyclone has 35kts or more in two quads
    only, the BOM has no interest in a name

    Under the definition a shear affected low that may have 45-60kts in two quads
    and only 30kts in the other two quads is defined as a tropical low.no name
    will be assigned.


    Every other agency in the world names a cyclone when 35KTS is sampled
    in any quad.

    So thats how the real world rollz


    So consider this.
     
    #957 jwx, Apr 28, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2017
    POW_hungry likes this.
  8. jwx

    jwx One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2017
    Messages:
    477
    Likes Received:
    723
    Leave's it to you Rush to Help him out.
     
  9. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    4,129
    Likes Received:
    3,481
    Location:
    Cairns, Queensland
    The OCC boys up here are starting to talk about it. Still early days yet but a westerly movement across the Coral Sea is being suggested. Potential strength and or landfall no idea yet.
     
  10. jwx

    jwx One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2017
    Messages:
    477
    Likes Received:
    723
    That would be right the system has been showing on the end of the run
    two more runs should sort it out. But yeah initial movement is wsw.

    [​IMG]


    As you can see atm the model is displaying a solid ridge so if that ridge verifys,
    its a no brainer cairns maybe under the pump.
     
    #960 jwx, Apr 28, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2017
    Seafm and POW_hungry like this.
  11. jwx

    jwx One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2017
    Messages:
    477
    Likes Received:
    723
    For your benefit RUSH, this is what a system looks like on sat when building
    and embedding the eyewall.

    [​IMG]
    Frances


    [​IMG]
     
    #961 jwx, Apr 28, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2017
  12. jwx

    jwx One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2017
    Messages:
    477
    Likes Received:
    723
    [​IMG]
    00z interesting run gnarly cat4 lurking about whilst the ridge strengthens.
     
    Jellybeans, Seafm and POW_hungry like this.
  13. jwx

    jwx One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2017
    Messages:
    477
    Likes Received:
    723
    #963 jwx, Apr 30, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2017
  14. jwx

    jwx One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2017
    Messages:
    477
    Likes Received:
    723
    18z upper level trough weakens the ridge,cyclone is captured and tracks SE.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    To early to rule out anything atm.
     
  15. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    38,901
    Likes Received:
    3,926
    Location:
    An airport
    We are currently in Airlie beach. The incredible bit is not the destruction (there is not a huge amount of infrastructrture damage and most of it would have been cleaned up by now) but rather the trees. Apparently all had been totally denuded of leaves, but they are slowly coming back, with the new growth and epicormic growth you would expect after a fire clearly visable.

    The beaches still have little sand, the caravan park we are in still has no working camp kitchen, driers, the office is destroyed and all computers were flooded, but they cant call it flooded as they are not in a designated "Flood zone" so the insurance companies wont cover them. It must be water ingress, and fortunately for them the windows broke allowing "water ingress" which was up to the door handle anyway :rolleyes:

    They have had no money at all from the insurance agencies. The Govt wont provide any handouits until after the insurance agencies have paid up to ensure that people dont double dip.


    We dropped by to give a little tourism back to the community, but we've ended up staying 4 days in this place. It is certianly not back to its beautiful best - the beach is mainly rocks, the lagoon is empty, much of the harbour and tour opperators are still out of business as they repair ... but the people are lovely and the spirit is positive ...

    Doing a fishing trip with the little man tomorrow morning out towards the whitsundays islands ... should be good!
     
  16. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    May 15, 2014
    Messages:
    1,617
    Likes Received:
    2,269
    Flame Tree caravan park? Went up to give them a hand. It makes me angry to think that the Insurance Company is still giving them a hard time. The falling debris caused a dam of sorts in the little creek which flooded things when it broke it's banks. It's time to start naming and shaming these insurance companies.
     
  17. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    38,901
    Likes Received:
    3,926
    Location:
    An airport
    Yep Flametree ... great little park, right beside the airport but the planes only fly occasionally during the day!
     
  18. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    4,129
    Likes Received:
    3,481
    Location:
    Cairns, Queensland
    Most flights to the Whitsundays these days go to Hamilton Island I think.
     
  19. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    46,769
    Likes Received:
    15,714
    Location:
    Melbourne, Oz