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Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by Claude Cat, Jan 28, 2016.
I think the system will still have a good shot @ becoming a cat4-5 imo..
on that note cheers.
It's been an interesting Autumn to date, let alone Cyclone season for Aus wouldn't you agree @jwx? A season of extremes in the north and the south with something mild in the mid latitudes....
Something to think about.
On an internet forum once can 'declare' a tropical cyclone whenever you want. In the real world, I would imagine that declaring an active cyclone in Australian waters would require alerts being sent to multiple government agencies, triggering automatic escalation procedures across a while raft of sectors (including private, NGO and volunteer organisations) which cost a lot of time, needless to say money. Such decisions would not be taken lightly and thus would require approval along a chain of command.
It has been a strange season. Many models have forecast multiple 'phantom' storms, particularly early in the season which eventuated into nothing more than tropical lows. Conversely rapid intensification has also caught out some models and forecasters.
Australia's BOM... As taxpayers, I think it's fair to say it's one of the few agencies Australia should be proud of. Sure, I only see the public-published content but in my mind, since I trawl through data output on a global scale daily, we have access to some of the best information the meteorological industry produces IMO. Balanced and progressive. It has my vote.
Yep, agreed. No doubt they have their reasons - the cyclones of the current season have often flirted with the thresholds and classifications. If these were systems that eventuated into extremes & extraordinary WX then I guess it'd be a different story and jobs would be on the line - perhaps this indicates that calculated and decisive actions have been made this season.
Do any other models agree with this? It has happened before so I guess anything is possible.
The reason why systems go unnamed and some unclassified is because the BOM has,
a Ludicrous definition practice before naming a TC.
'In the Australian Region to qualify as a tropical cyclone a tropical LOW must be accompanied by gales surrounding more than 50% of the center
of circulation for a period of at least six hours'.
What this means is in layman's terms is if a cyclone has 35kts or more in two quads
only, the BOM has no interest in a name
Under the definition a shear affected low that may have 45-60kts in two quads
and only 30kts in the other two quads is defined as a tropical low.no name
will be assigned.
Every other agency in the world names a cyclone when 35KTS is sampled
in any quad.
So thats how the real world rollz
So consider this.
Leave's it to you Rush to Help him out.
The OCC boys up here are starting to talk about it. Still early days yet but a westerly movement across the Coral Sea is being suggested. Potential strength and or landfall no idea yet.
That would be right the system has been showing on the end of the run
two more runs should sort it out. But yeah initial movement is wsw.
As you can see atm the model is displaying a solid ridge so if that ridge verifys,
its a no brainer cairns maybe under the pump.
For your benefit RUSH, this is what a system looks like on sat when building
and embedding the eyewall.
00z interesting run gnarly cat4 lurking about whilst the ridge strengthens.
You guys likely already know the the broad disturbance is already in play.
i will only post upto a reasonable time frame with the EC atm.
Has nice flaring going to the north of the disturbance.
18z upper level trough weakens the ridge,cyclone is captured and tracks SE.
To early to rule out anything atm.
We are currently in Airlie beach. The incredible bit is not the destruction (there is not a huge amount of infrastructrture damage and most of it would have been cleaned up by now) but rather the trees. Apparently all had been totally denuded of leaves, but they are slowly coming back, with the new growth and epicormic growth you would expect after a fire clearly visable.
The beaches still have little sand, the caravan park we are in still has no working camp kitchen, driers, the office is destroyed and all computers were flooded, but they cant call it flooded as they are not in a designated "Flood zone" so the insurance companies wont cover them. It must be water ingress, and fortunately for them the windows broke allowing "water ingress" which was up to the door handle anyway
They have had no money at all from the insurance agencies. The Govt wont provide any handouits until after the insurance agencies have paid up to ensure that people dont double dip.
We dropped by to give a little tourism back to the community, but we've ended up staying 4 days in this place. It is certianly not back to its beautiful best - the beach is mainly rocks, the lagoon is empty, much of the harbour and tour opperators are still out of business as they repair ... but the people are lovely and the spirit is positive ...
Doing a fishing trip with the little man tomorrow morning out towards the whitsundays islands ... should be good!
Flame Tree caravan park? Went up to give them a hand. It makes me angry to think that the Insurance Company is still giving them a hard time. The falling debris caused a dam of sorts in the little creek which flooded things when it broke it's banks. It's time to start naming and shaming these insurance companies.
Yep Flametree ... great little park, right beside the airport but the planes only fly occasionally during the day!
Most flights to the Whitsundays these days go to Hamilton Island I think.