Event East Coast (Qld-NE NSW) surface trough possible heavy rainfall 2-9 April 2021

Ken Kato

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Yeah certainly evident on radar. Have also seen quite a few people from parts of the Sunshine Coast remark how much the rain's tumbling down now. It's gotten a bit heavier here too as I type.
 

Multiversity

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Jul 29, 2019
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The Scottish Mist - brilliant G58. Certainly had the feel of a drive in the highlands yesterday on a late afternoon trip back to Bris.

The posters saying that this was too hard to call look like they'll be right. Wasn't the heavy rain that went out to sea not directly related to the low & as well as this rain now stretching from Sunny to GC? I've just had a look at the pressures along the coast & they all look pretty constant at around 1014-15hPa so the low has slipped out to sea I'm assuming? Convergence doesn't seem to going anywhere so be interesting to see totals o/n.

Rain has picked up a little here as well, almost a Scottish mist all day just very light drizzle, until just after dark. Currently 18.5mm from midnight to now with the rain rate sitting on 6.8 mm an hour. Since the 1/4/21 up to 47 mm.
 
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Ken Kato

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Yeah @Nature's Fury , ICON not only captured the overnight rain well, it also initialised the position of yesterday's rain areas far better than the rest. But it just goes to show how one model can do really well with certain days of a certain setup while another one does really well for a different setup.
The statistically-corrected MOSMIX system also picked up that big jump in rainfall better than many others.

Had huge sudden gusts here earlier this morning as well but died down now. I've also seen some reports of trees and branches down as well as power outages. The rain was also loud enough last night that I had trouble falling asleep.

Over 100mm of rain's now been recorded since 9am yesterday by some raingauges near the SEQ coastal fringe, especially in the Sunshine Coast hinterlands (for example, 151mm at the official alert gauge in Maleny).
Most other falls so far near the coastal fringe have been in the 50-100mm range but as expected, falls have been much lower as soon as you get away from that coastal fringe (there is a somewhat separate area of some enhanced rainfall further inland though).

50-70km/hr wind gusts have also already been recorded at a number of places so far with Redcliffe going a touch over with 72km/hr as well as Double Island Pt and Cape Moreton with 76km/hr although the latter site's elevated and exposed.
But given the sizeable gaps between the official stations, it's quite possible that stronger local gusts have occurred in other spots. Above are some radar loops for the last 18hrs via WZ and an observed rainfall map courtesy of The Early Warning Network. A flood watch is still current for coastal catchments and an initial moderate flood warning for the Stanley River as well.
 

PeteJ

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Jul 5, 2019
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Toowoomba
Gentle showers and light rain during the night.
Just drizzle and fog right now.

Event total 24mm until now , in Toowoomba.
Seems to have been lighter in the SW parts getting heavier to the NE parts. One thing that got my attention is a rain band that developed to the SW and has been stationary ever since. Been some good totals under it. Wonder what it will do from now on.
 

Vinny

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Jul 4, 2019
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Yeppoon Queensland
Had 6mm here.
It seems the Brisbane area, it just rains.

Even Yeppoon not far from Rocky gets rain, how much did Rocky get last year 500 and something mm ?. Yeppoon got just over 1200mm, I feel it is going to be a year like that again, where Rocky misses out but the coast doesn't . It's odd how frequently it is raining and yet it only hugs the coastline .
 

Warlock_01

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Jul 7, 2015
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Gold Coast, Bonogin
84mm overnight and lingering showers continuing. So, this happened overnight a kilometre down the road from our house on Hardys road. Hopefully the person got out in time and swam to safety as the barriers were up before 7am. Look, in this case I don't blame the individual, for instance this causeway has never had any upgrade to raise the road for as long as I lived here and water can rush through here very quickly in a rain event and for some reason the council just keep putting up their pissy orange barriers with no intention in the future to upgrade this causeway. This creek only outflows to Mudgeeraba creek and it does not have an inflow like currumbin or Tallebudgera as it only fills up from Mt Bally at the end of Bonogin road, but it can flood very quickly in a rain event. During the year it does not run, it's very stagnant. The other thing to mention is there is no street lights near the causeway so this individual would of hit that water in the dark and possibly not from the suburb and got caught up during the middle of the night and eventually got trapped.
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Tsunami

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Jul 6, 2019
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Cleveland SE QLD
WOW WOW.
Wasnt expecting that
78mm here, not a huge dump but still very good
Wind this morning was extremely strong but eased to a slight puff now.
Extraordinary unpredictable event. Id almost say the most unpredictable i have seen. Although i do remember some models with total rain fir my location around 70 to 90mm which is my total of 92mm or the event
Thanks ken and everyone, its been a good ride
Now wait for the next one....may be a cyclone in the coral sea later next week
 

Ken Kato

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WOW WOW.
Wasnt expecting that
78mm here, not a huge dump but still very good
Wind this morning was extremely strong but eased to a slight puff now.
Extraordinary unpredictable event. Id almost say the most unpredictable i have seen. Although i do remember some models with total rain fir my location around 70 to 90mm which is my total of 92mm or the event
Thanks ken and everyone, its been a good ride
Now wait for the next one....may be a cyclone in the coral sea later next week
The ICON model predicted these heavy falls well which was evident in its forecasts yesterday @Tsunami . Possibly helped by the fact that it was correctly initialising the position of the rainfall at the times it was run. The MOSMIX system also picked up the forecast big increase in rainfall well.
 

Sandbank

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Jul 7, 2019
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Caloundra South and Stanthorpe
Some pretty big numbers coming out of the stationary band just west of Stanthorpe. Certainly don't think they were expecting 80mm in Ballandean overnight and this morning. Dams and catchments already full, ground saturated....interested to see the outcome with road closures and flooding from Stanthorpe south to Tenterfield.
 

glenesk

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Nov 13, 2019
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I never understood the point of whinging about the weather, it's not something anybody has any control over, it's a bit like whinging about getting old. You just have to accept it.
So by that analogy you would begrudge someone that complained they have a life destroying decease?
I understand what you are saying. But i try to have empathy for all that are adversly effected. Be it floods fire or drought,
 

MegaMatch

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ICON was also one of the many models which got it horribly wrong for my area, as did many of the others...but because it got something right for the SEQ area we're supposed to ignore that? In fact, that whole 24hr period from Sunday to Monday afternoon was incredibly poorly modelled...6hrs to realtime and many of them still couldn't get it right.
 

Flowin

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ICON was also one of the many models which got it horribly wrong for my area, as did many of the others...but because it got something right for the SEQ area we're supposed to ignore that?
I think Ken was referring to the situation after midnight Sunday.
IMO all or most of the models go it wrong from midday Sunday to midnight Sunday - that was the critical period for your area and really unfortunate for the WBB folk

Edit add: key learning for me not just from this event but recent others as well is predicting the surface low behaviours is not easy - but consistency in upper low forecasts are something to watch for the bigger picture.
 

Ken Kato

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ICON was also one of the many models which got it horribly wrong for my area, as did many of the others...but because it got something right for the SEQ area we're supposed to ignore that?
Not sure if you were replying to my comment or NF's but if it's mine, I gave the context behind it:

" ..... But it just goes to show how one model can do really well with certain days of a certain setup while another one does really well for a different setup. "

In fact while ICON did really well in SEQ in the last couple of days, it completely missed the rainfall that's been occurring over large parts of the Downs which the others picked up.

The "one model does really well one day, then really poorly well the next" phenomenon happens all the time and it's especially obvious with TC's.

But it also goes to show the dangers of completely discarding a particular model for a given setup, in this case, ICON. I know a lot of people do it (I sometimes fall into that temptation as well if a particular model's going for a crazy scenario like ACCESS-G often does) but objective analyses show that it doesn't always work.
 

Ken Kato

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I just wish people have the same amount of scrutiny to the models as they do praise them. The first half was diabolically modelled....in real time. That's all.
I don't think I've seen anyone really praise their overall performance during the first half of this setup though? If anything, pretty much everyone was in agreement that the performance was atrocious from what I've seen.

We also shouldn't forget though that the almost (except for mosmix and to a lesser extent, ICON) universal consensus among the models was for extreme rain along the coastal strip was plain wrong but also the fact that during the early stages, that blob with the probable extreme rain rates wasn't that far off the coast.
If that had occurred a bit inland of the coast, even a small shift in its position still wouldn't have prevented extreme flooding and I'd bet you anything there'd be a lot less people thinking that the models didn't get it as wrong as they did.

But because it occurred further east of where it did, all the extreme rain ended up falling over the ocean which I think leads to a perception that they were even further off the mark compared to if that rain occurred on land i.e. our perception of the margin by which the models were wrong is also coloured by the impacts on land/population or lack thereof..... not just the actual physical distance by which the models misplaced the rain.
 

MegaMatch

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I don't think I've seen anyone really praise their overall performance during the first half of this setup though? If anything, pretty much everyone was in agreement that the performance was atrocious from what I've seen.

We also shouldn't forget though that the almost (except for mosmix and to a lesser extent, ICON) universal consensus among the models was for extreme rain along the coastal strip was plain wrong but also the fact that during the early stages, that blob with the probable extreme rain rates wasn't that far off the coast.
If that had occurred a bit inland of the coast, even a small shift in its position still wouldn't have prevented extreme flooding and I'd bet you anything there'd be a lot less people thinking that the models didn't get it as wrong as they did.
But because it occurred where it did, a small shift meant a world of difference between the advertised extreme rain coming off and a fizzer for the WBB.
So our perception of the margin by which the models were wrong is also coloured by the impacts on land/population or lack thereof i.e. the fact that the extreme rain ended up falling just over the ocean and not that narrow coastal strip.

Thanks Ken. I'm just really frustrated, no joke, that morning before everything was supposed to go down, there was almost stark agreement that we were going to get hammered...but then as the day and night went on, nothing. This place is incredible at deflecting severe weather away to everywhere else.
 

Flowin

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I got to laugh really - there is only so much one can expect from each model.
But at least when it comes to weather models we don't have to wait too long to see what actually happens.
In my work I do modelling to estimate very extreme floods for safety of dams and other critical infrastructure etc - The most extreme are Probable Maximum Floods with 1 in 1 million chance of occurring in a year.
I can do all the modelling and checking I like but I will never get to know in my entire lifetime whether the modelling is right or not.
So I enjoy following the weather modelling no matter how right or wrong they are.
 

MegaMatch

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I got to laugh really - there is only so much one can expect from each model.
But at least when it comes to weather models we don't have to wait to long to see what actually happens.
In my work I do modelling to estimate very extreme floods for safety of dams and other critical infrastructure etc - The most extreme are Probable Maximum Floods with 1 in 1 million chance of occurring in a year.
I can do all the modelling and checking I like but I will never get to know in my entire lifetime whether the modelling is right or not.
So I enjoy following the weather modelling no matter how right or wrong they are.

I do too but I lost a LOT and i mean a LOT of faith after this event, it has to be said. If there was still a bit of disagreement 12-24hrs prior then it wouldn't be so bad...fair enough, but it was almost real-time and many of them were not correcting their mistakes...that's what got me the most.
 

Flowin

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Is the rain over the downs supposed to move eastwards over the next few hours? For that matter, is there any kind of consensus as to what will happen in the next 24 hrs or so?
Access C 00Z is suggesting rain may drift across from the Downs into SEQ, but the SEQ totals may be more patchy and not as good as the Downs
 

Nature's Fury

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I got to laugh really - there is only so much one can expect from each model.
But at least when it comes to weather models we don't have to wait too long to see what actually happens.
In my work I do modelling to estimate very extreme floods for safety of dams and other critical infrastructure etc - The most extreme are Probable Maximum Floods with 1 in 1 million chance of occurring in a year.
I can do all the modelling and checking I like but I will never get to know in my entire lifetime whether the modelling is right or not.
So I enjoy following the weather modelling no matter how right or wrong they are.

That would be really interesting, having to consider apocalyptic rain and flood events for SEQ.
 

Flowin

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That would be really interesting, having to consider apocalyptic rain and flood events for SEQ.
Yeah it is very interesting - but also very sobering for just how catastrophic the impacts would be.
And remember that one outlier EC forecast for TC Oma in 2019 - I think it was something like over 1000 mm in five days over a large part of SEQ - potential outcome of that is shown diagrammatically below.

extreme flood scenario.png
 

Ken Kato

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Thanks Ken. I'm just really frustrated, no joke, that morning before everything was supposed to go down, there was almost stark agreement that we were going to get hammered...but then as the day and night went on, nothing. This place is incredible at deflecting severe weather away to everywhere else.
I totally understand your frustration for want of a better word. I go through the same feelings whenever a nice winter rain or snowfall event looks promising for us, only to die on our doorstep and affect everyone else. When that kept happening last winter, it almost felt like a little piece of me died inside each time. It made me so angry. I actually had to resort to not looking at weather stuff for awhile unless I had to for work. Sure, good rain is far more of a necessity for you guys up there and we get more weather events down here compared to the WBB. I also may not say much on here about just how consistent the fizzers are for the WBB, but trust me I'm intimately aware of just how consistently the dome seems to hang over your area. To the point of where not even a hollywood script writer could dream up of such a scenario.
And the fact that not even an almost universal consensus among models resulted in worthwhile rain there is just more salt into the wound. So I totally get all that and I'm sure many here do too.

Personally, I actually don't mind at all when you complain about the WBB if it doesn't involve taking your frustration out on others. I'd do the same thing in your situation. That's just me. Hell, I sometimes do it for this place as well.

But if I may offer some blunt but practical advice. "Life is short" is such a cliche but there's also no denying that it's very true. I'm not a big fan of the thousands of quotes that people often like to throw around every day but there is one which I still remember and like the most..... life is not a dress rehearsal. So if you're that passionate about weather and the weather's not going to change your surroundings or the way you feel about it (and I'd be feeling the same way too), change them yourself. That's the only way change will happen. Considering you said you're still fairly young, I'd move. But if you do, always have a plan B in case things don't work out for you in your new location or the climate doesn't live up to your expectations (e.g. the climate at your new place ends up turning crappy while the climate back in WBB becomes wetter). And yes, I know what you're probably thinking re that last line haha

The other alternative is to get wrapped up in an existing passion other than weather. Don't get me wrong, weather and climate's been my passion since I was a kid. But my other great passion is aviation and also VR simulation stuff involving aviation. Once I put that VR headset on and go to a distant place with blizzards or big storms in another timezone, it becomes so immersive that I almost forget where I am. And then when I finally take my headset off, I'm like "oh wow, I'm still in SEQ and it's nighttime rather than day". But that's just me. You might have your own other passion. The key here is a powerful and immersive-enough distraction from crappy weather. Because if weather's your only passion and it's crappy all the time, the irritation of it all becomes all-consuming.
You could also use this last option to tide you over during quiet periods if all you really want is a few decent rain events or interesting weather events from time to time and weather isn't that crucial to your overall happiness.
Anyway do whatever works for you.
 
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