Event East Coast (Qld-NE NSW) surface trough possible heavy rainfall 2-9 April 2021

MegaMatch

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When you think about it, i feel the models did fairly well, even though we didnt get the heavy rain that was mainly offshore, we still got good soaking rain for the days that the models predicted. Like i have said before, with technology these days ,i feel some people out there expect perfection when it comes to rainfall amounts. I dont recall the BOM, or other weather agenices ever putting a rainfall figure in there forecasts back in the old days, do you think they should ditch that and just say " showers" or "rain at times" without placing in a forecast amount of rain in mm ?

Still firmly standing by my opinion that many of them were diabolical when the first half of the event was occurring (or not) in real time.
 

Ken Kato

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Above is a radar loop via WZ from 6am yesterday to 6am today. And observed 72hr totals to 9am today from The Early Warning Network.

Some of the top scorers in SEQ during this period included 319mm at Upper Springbroook, 280mm at Mt Glorious, and 232mm at the Currumbin Creek alert gauge. Most of the other readings along the coastal fringe and hinterlands were in the 100-200mm range. Not surprisingly, the heavier falls were mainly coastal, including far NE NSW although some inland sections managed to score 25-50mm.
Outside SEQ, a narrow belt of good falls occurred over a section of the Downs e.g. 110mm at the Ballandean Hill alert gauge.
 

MegaMatch

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They were. In fact, there were masses of posts in this thread about that very fact on virtually every page during this event.

Really? I only recall a few people pointing it out, most weren't really concerned because there was still a chance that the second phase (wrap-around) would occur over southern QLD.

But I think I deserved a right of reply to Gleno's post claiming that some people expect perfection from them, which clearly implies me and others who've been critical of them during the first half of the event.
 

Flowin

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Really? I only recall a few people pointing it out, most weren't really concerned because there was still a chance that the second phase (wrap-around) would occur over southern QLD.

But I think I deserved a right of reply to Gleno's post claiming that some people expect perfection from them, which clearly implies me and others who've been critical of them during the first half of the event (which for me couldn't be a more incorrect
nah I don't think it was criticism of you. I thought you portrayed reasonable healthy skepticism in the lead up which was warranted given the spread of predictions.
I know I certainly tried to point people towards the ensembles, and actually think my analogy of the mob of drunken sailors trying to follow an invisible line was about right.
 

Ken Kato

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Really? I only recall a few people pointing it out, most weren't really concerned because there was still a chance that the second phase (wrap-around) would occur over southern QLD.

But I think I deserved a right of reply to Gleno's post claiming that some people expect perfection from them, which clearly implies me and others who've been critical of them during the first half of the event.
Do a search for keywords like "downgraded" "models" "unpredictable" "EC" "GFS" etc for this thread and you'll find lots.
 

MegaMatch

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nah I don't think it was criticism of you. I thought you portrayed reasonable healthy skepticism in the lead up which was warranted given the spread of predictions.
I know I certainly tried to point people towards the ensembles, and actually think my analogy of the mob of drunken sailors trying to follow an invisible line was about right.

Yep, I always had a fair amount of scepticism during the lead-up; I even said not all models take that trough/low down the coast. My main complaints only started when the morning before, there was almost unanimous agreement between them, and then the next morning when it hadn't happened and the trough had clearly moved well off the northern part of Fraser Island, many of the models still absurdly initialised it on the coast. Even the BoM had retained their SWW that morning before cancelling it I think in the afternoon.
 

MegaMatch

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Anyway, this thread covered CQ down to the border which was the only reason I participated in it. Oddly enough, the heaviest falls once again managed to completely bypass us and occur further south with only very isolated falls of 50mm+ occurring over CQ.

Until next time, I'm off to the 'whinge in peace' (CQ) thread. :thumbs:
 

CirrusFibratus

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Anyway, this thread covered CQ down to the border which was the only reason I participated in it. Oddly enough, the heaviest falls once again managed to completely bypass us and occur further south with only very isolated falls of 50mm+ occurring over CQ.

Until next time, I'm off to the 'whinge in peace' (CQ) thread. :thumbs:
Considering the extraordinary, probability-defying nature of your area (and associated misfortune), your posts aren't so much whinging as they are stating facts.

That being said, if anyone's earnt a whinge about the weather it's the CQ area. I know I would if I lived there, it's human nature.

My dad lives in Hervey Bay and he often comments on the 'dome' that sits over the area. He's a concreter though, so the comments are likely more out of amusement than loathing LOL
 

Ken Kato

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In a bit of an irony, the forecast multiday totals from ensembles actually ended up being close to the mark as far as SEQ goes i.e. 100-200mm close to the coast with locally higher amounts.

But it was that increase in rain on Monday and into Tuesday that saved us. If it wasn't for that, the observed amounts would've fallen well short.
 

Falling_Droplet

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Event total of 117 mm with 2.6 mm in the 24 hours to 9am today.

Month-to-date rainfall is also 117 mm and is the highest for April since 133.2 mm in 2015 and the total of 53.8 mm on 6 Apr is the highest for April since 55.2 mm on 27 April 2012.

Long period rainfall totals have improved further where 6, 9, 12 and 18 month rainfall have remained or returned to near average or to above average. 18 month rainfall is now 80 mm above average. However these positive anomalies are mostly less than the highest values in 2020. 24 month to 48 month rainfall have also improved and are close to average, though 36 month rainfall worsened a little to 274 mm below average.

Year to date rainfall is 636.3 mm, 111.5 mm above average but 92.1 mm less than same period than Jan to Apr 2020).

20210402_to20210408_rain_totals.PNG
 
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MegaMatch

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Come on mega. Its just banta.. smile for once mate

yeah maybe you're right. But I remember posting that I was about to call it I think Monday morning, but I didn't specify for where. I'd feel pretty sad if that was used against me later in the thread to discredit me.
 

Ken Kato

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Was that really necessary?

Since when did this become a pissing contest about who was right and who was wrong?
@MegaMatch maybe if you actually bothered to stop and take into account the context of how persistently condescending he's been in the past in his posts, you'd understand. Oh but no, let's just completely ignore that.

I'd like to think I've been one of the most patient people with you on here. I've even come out in support of your posts in the past despite all the criticism from many other people about your posts. I even tried to help you out the other day by trying to give you some advice. Unsolicited yes, but I like to try and help people. But you simply turn around, ignore all that, and just sh** on anyone who supports you. I have absolutely zero respect for anyone who does that.

Well enough's enough. While I can understand that you guys up in the WBB and CQ have had it extraordinarily tough, I draw a line when it comes to taking it out on everyone else. And not just once but over and over and over again. The most recent petty debacle with the models debate was just the most recent example even after I clearly said TWICE that I was only referring to how ICON performed for SEQ. I even tried to contribute my own thoughts on why the models performed so poorly for the WBB in particular but again, I didn't see any attempt at a contribution from you about that.

I've had a gutful of the constant passive-agressive hostility. Last I checked, this forum was to talk about weather. I don't mind banter at all, nor do I mind people complaining about how their area is trash because weather events die on their doorstep. But the constant hostile overtones and taking it out on people who support you is crossing the line. Why are you even on here if all you'd rather do is cast hostility over everything that'd discussed on here? I like to think that I'm nice to people who are nice to me but at the same time, I treat others like how they treat me. I don't take s*** from anyone, not from you, not from anyone else.

I don't usually make posts like this and I also don't usually like getting involved in petty arguments but very occasionally I do because I'm a human with emotions, not a robot, and I'm far from perfect. Which also means I have my limits and I think this really needs to be said. There's always going to be certain things, topics, or comments that irritate each one of us in this forum and lead to occasional disagreements or even arguments.... and that's just part of life in any forum. I'm the last person to be immune from that. But I'm really over the hostile overtones of many of your posts and taking it out on people who've supported you in the past.

Really, how hard it is to chill out a bit on a weather forum and get along like adults in here for the majority of the time?
 

Tsunami

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yeah maybe you're right. But I remember posting that I was about to call it I think Monday morning, but I didn't specify for where. I'd feel pretty sad if that was used against me later in the thread to discredit me.
I dont think anyone in this weather site tries to discredit anyone. Its a weather site where discussions are had views are spoken and friendly argued over.
Without being rude mega and please dont take offence. But if your negativity is also dragging into your social life, you may want to chat to your doctor about it, depression can really stuff peoples lives up if not treated. Its a real problem in modern society these days
I was going to pm you above but you have restrictions on your profile so couldnt
 

MegaMatch

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@MegaMatch maybe if you actually bothered to stop and take into account the context of how persistently condescending he's been in the past in his posts, you'd understand. Oh but no, let's just completely ignore that.

I'd like to think I've been one of the most patient people with you on here. I've even come out in support of your posts in the past despite all the criticism from many other people about your posts. I even tried to help you out the other day by trying to give you some advice. Unsolicited yes, but I like to try and help people. But you simply turn around, ignore all that, and just sh** on anyone who supports you. I have absolutely zero respect for anyone who does that.

Well enough's enough. While I can understand that you guys up in the WBB and CQ have had it extraordinarily tough, I draw a line when it comes to taking it out on everyone else. And not just once but over and over and over again. The most recent petty debacle with the models debate was just the most recent example even after I clearly said TWICE that I was only referring to how ICON performed for SEQ. I even tried to contribute my own thoughts on why the models performed so poorly for the WBB in particular but again, I didn't see any attempt at a contribution from you about that.

I've had a gutful of the constant passive-agressive hostility. Last I checked, this forum was to talk about weather. I don't mind banter at all, nor do I mind people complaining about how their area is trash because weather events die on their doorstep. But the constant hostile overtones and taking it out on people who support you is crossing the line. Why are you even on here if all you'd rather do is cast hostility over everything that'd discussed on here? I like to think that I'm nice to people who are nice to me but at the same time, I treat others like how they treat me. I don't take s*** from anyone, not from you, not from anyone else.

Really, how hard it is to chill out a bit on a weather forum. I don't usually make posts like this and I also don't usually like getting involved in petty arguments, but I also have my limits and I think this really needs to be said.

Well that certainly hit home. I'm so sorry for dragging my negativity onto here and taking it out on everyone else. In fact, that post is a massive wakeup call for me and means a lot coming from you especially. And I'm not just saying that either...my eyes are welling up as I type this. I just hope I haven't completely burned that bridge beyond repair because I don't want to lose what I'd consider a good friend I've made through the online weather community. And yes @Tsunami, things IRL aren't great but I'm not going to use that as a copout for why I carry on like I do on here. It's NO excuse. And I know this ain't the place to vent what's going on inside my head but the two words that spring to mind to describe how I feel are useless and forgotten. Like nothing I say or do even matters to anyone. Insignificant for a better word.

I'm so sorry to you Ken, to everyone.
 

Nidecker

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Well that certainly hit home. I'm so sorry for dragging my negativity onto here and taking it out on everyone else. In fact, that post is a massive wakeup call for me and means a lot coming from you especially. And I'm not just saying that either...my eyes are welling up as I type this. I just hope I haven't completely burned that bridge beyond repair because I don't want to lose what I'd consider a good friend I've made through the online weather community. And yes @Tsunami, things IRL aren't great but I'm not going to use that as a copout for why I carry on like I do on here. It's NO excuse.

I'm so sorry to you Ken, to everyone. I hope you can forgive & forget and we can move on.

I haven't followed the thread, but seriously gutsy post! Self reflection is an awesome skill to develop.

FWIW when posting, I try, (don't always succeed) to imagine I'm in a bar having a beer with the people I am replying too. Adds a whole lot of perspective.
 

Ken Kato

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Well that certainly hit home. I'm so sorry for dragging my negativity onto here and taking it out on everyone else. In fact, that post is a massive wakeup call for me and means a lot coming from you especially. And I'm not just saying that either...my eyes are welling up as I type this. I just hope I haven't completely burned that bridge beyond repair because I don't want to lose what I'd consider a good friend I've made through the online weather community. And yes @Tsunami, things IRL aren't great but I'm not going to use that as a copout for why I carry on like I do on here.

Please, forgive me.
All good, apology accepted. I usually forgive easily... and some would probably say, too easily. Just to be clear though, my problem's never been about the negativity in your posts about how ridiculous the weather patterns have been for your area. Like I've said before, I sometimes make similar comments myself. In fact, just about every day among my workmates.
And I've also never been a fan of a contrived rainbows and butterflies way of looking at how irritating weather patterns for a place are. Looking at it through rose coloured glasses is simply avoiding reality. Although there's something to be said about making the most of an exciting weather event when it does happen and soaking it all in, sometimes the simple reality is that a place is dominated by utterly boring weather and lack of rain for whatever length of time that goes on for, whether it be weeks, years, or even more or less permanently.
And let's be honest, some disagreements and arguments are inevitable on virtually any forum. Not everyone can get along fine and dandy in a group.
My ONLY problem is when it goes beyond just venting and gets taken out on other people repeatedly, especially those who've lent support or have made an effort to understand whatever's the source of irritation that's all.

So now we've sorted that out, let's move on :)

P.S. hope things in your personal life turn for the better.
 
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Tsunami

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Well that certainly hit home. I'm so sorry for dragging my negativity onto here and taking it out on everyone else. In fact, that post is a massive wakeup call for me and means a lot coming from you especially. And I'm not just saying that either...my eyes are welling up as I type this. I just hope I haven't completely burned that bridge beyond repair because I don't want to lose what I'd consider a good friend I've made through the online weather community. And yes @Tsunami, things IRL aren't great but I'm not going to use that as a copout for why I carry on like I do on here. It's NO excuse. And I know this ain't the place to vent what's going on inside my head but the two words that spring to mind to describe how I feel are useless and forgotten. Like nothing I say or do even matters to anyone. Insignificant for a better word.

I'm so sorry to you Ken, to everyone.
Mega Pm me....
 

BrettSS

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TBH I'd be more than happy with the metre of rain they get every year on the Gold Coast and northern NSW.



Yeah, I know, but

1) They're exciting to watch & often tricky but still fun to track (obviously not so exciting when you're under a Cat 3+)
2) They can provide some of the best drought-breaking rains to a drought-parched state/country.

Of course I don't wish the devastation & destruction that comes with them but the fact of the matter is many areas of Queensland could use the rainfall from one of them right now.

Remember this outlook?



So what happened? Suspiciously curious if there's a link to the below-average cyclone season this year and the all the troughing and floods the east coast of Aus south of CQ endured all season. EG too much upper troughing over NSW which often means more shear over the western Tasman/Coral Sea. 2007/08 also sticks out in my mind as another season that was supposed to be above average but turned out to be a troughy mess. But it could also be related to the MJO which seemed as though it spent most of its time over the other side of the world.

Sounds plausible to me, Mega.
 

BrettSS

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I never understood the point of whinging about the weather, it's not something anybody has any control over, it's a bit like whinging about getting old. You just have to accept it.

People who "whinge" about unavoidable misfortunes, weather related or otherwise, know perfectly well that whinging won't help, but I think that, at least for some of us, expressing our feelings when we're hurting, rather than bottling them up, helps us to deal with them and lessens the pain associated with them. It's like the verse from the Billy Fields song "You Weren't in Love With Me":

Well I know, that it won't change it, but baby, it helps if I cry.
 

Tsunami

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People who "whinge" about unavoidable misfortunes, weather related or otherwise, know perfectly well that whinging won't help, but I think that, at least for some of us, expressing our feelings when we're hurting, rather than bottling them up, helps us to deal with them and lessens the pain associated with them. It's like the verse from the Billy Fields song "You Weren't in Love With Me":

Well I know, that it won't change it, but baby, it helps if I cry.
Yes i remember many a time in Townsville, storms came from every direction to die 20km away time and time again. Did my head in
 

T. Rex

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Ken, Mega and Tsunami. (The names are listed in alphabetical order, no hierarchy or ranking intended.)

I honestly believe that the sentiments expressed by everyone of you in the past half a dozen or so of your posts, has done a great deal to soften your attitudes. However, at the same time, it must be acknowledged that this will have been difficult for all of you, in having to come to terms with your own thoughts, and to commit these to paper for everyone to see.

Congratulations all for having managed to agree to a cease-fire. It's often much more difficult to negotiate a Peace Treaty than it is to start a War.
 

PlumbBob

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Well, Thats good you lot, I don't even really know what that was about, but get the gist of it, well done all :thumbs:

Here's a few words I read recently, related to the form of Stoicism ?

"The chief task in life is simply this:
To identify and seperate matters so that one can say clearly to oneself which are externals not under ones control, and which have to do with the choices one actually control.
Where then does one look for good or evel ?
Not to uncontrollable externals, but within oneself to the choices that are their own,,,"
--- Epictetus
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-----------------
------

I need to also Thank @Tsunami & @DDstorm for your kind comments a couple of pages back, thanks guys, it is appreaciated.

Looks like we're settling into a rather typical Autumn for the time being, only thing of interest ATM would be the West Coast with the Lows dancing the dosi-doe :cool:

HavaGoodN
 

Michael Hauber

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Current EC looks like a relatively unusual pattern for the trough now well out to sea:

Capture.PNG


If I remember right earlier model runs had the system doing the typical bomb a solid cyclone in the Tasman Sea which then moves SE. I don't remember the funny looking trough still connected to the north, although I wasn't paying nearly as much attention to what the system did at this stage as what it was doing near us. There are multiple potential circulations embedded in this trough with the northern end forecast to form a tropical low headed for New Caledonia, the southern system heading towards south island NZ, and the middle pinching off into a further circulation that seems to not quite make it as a proper low but is forecast to impact the north island of NZ. Seems the system continues to want to be tricky and might now be giving headaches to forecasters in New Caledonia and New Zealand.
 

Timbuck

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who said size doesn’t matter ???? I can gauge how much rain I have had by the length and speed my bamboo shoots grow. in this case all these are only 2 weeks old and 15+ meters.... so I’d say that’s enough rain for now thanks pass it on to those who want/need it.
Maybe in wrong thread , but this is the result....


5D9D7900-CE45-4102-87E5-AEEC787215F0.jpeg 23ED8025-9E41-4FC9-BB91-4335B4377336.jpeg 500ACD7C-8B7D-4FD5-AC18-FB69EFE0853B.jpeg 3656A0F6-3D73-409C-82B9-4EB732E1B0CF.jpeg DB86D8E8-8C70-463B-BC70-A3C21CB8A1E2.jpeg
 

Seabreezes

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41.8mm in total here for the event, which is on the lower end of totals for the event on the northern MNC. Magically avoided most of the showers here until the onshore flow turned more southerly on the last day (Thurs 8th), before clearing in the mid-evening as the low moved away.
In comparison, some of the nearer BOM gauges to here at Seven Oaks and Nambucca Heads picked up around 80mm altogether.
 

Majikthise

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41.8mm in total here for the event, which is on the lower end of totals for the event on the northern MNC. Magically avoided most of the showers here until the onshore flow turned more southerly on the last day (Thurs 8th), before clearing in the mid-evening as the low moved away.
In comparison, some of the nearer BOM gauges to here at Seven Oaks and Nambucca Heads picked up around 80mm altogether.
We have been on the coast south of Taree and had much the same. Would look south and see the Myall Coast through to Newcastle getting hammered, while we only had the occasional short lived light squall. Was different when it swung from SE.
 
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