I found it useful to track the WV sat image with the lighting overlay as well. When there was persistent lightning the movement of the convection was more obvious than just the sat image on it's own.
Hard to say what will happen today though.
It was just speculation. I don't know if this convective area that form yesterday occurred earlier than forecast. Because from my time watching similar convective plumes they remain almost stationary in nature and may have prevented the trough/low to move further West due to it's presence. If it occurred later it may have been closer to the coast. Since it's weakening we can only hope a new one takes it's place closer if not over land.