Event East Coast (Qld-NE NSW) surface trough possible heavy rainfall 2-9 April 2021

Ken Kato

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Yes, indeed, Ken, I am. There are some building banks of showers moving in. Despite the cancellation of the SWW, I do note the cautionary observation that STWs will be issued if needed given the ongoing risk of thunderstorms. There's definitely still a lot to play out before this event is over.
Yeah to be honest, I'm in two minds about whether there will be heavy rain or not. But I find it puzzling how everyone's saying all of it's moving off to the SE when the western part of it is clearly heading SSW now.
 

PeteJ

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Well, I have been watching the Middle-level cloud thickening on the Satellite image, looking out the window and the Warwick Gliding club webcam, wondering if we may get some steady rain out of it eventually before Tuesday afternoon. I think those big blobs off the coast will just stay there and it seems the lighter rain developing closer is maybe what will build up during the day. Just a possibility I suppose.
 

Vinny

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Piddling down south of Yeppoon yet Yeppoon itself isn't getting much 8.8mm. More here as I see water now sitting on the front lawn.

upload_2021-4-5_12-15-43.png
 

Vinny

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Strange wind is SW too.. normally aren't SW winds dry and cool , not humid and warmish?

Yeppoon only needs 8.3mm more to fall today and we've had the average rainfall for April ! ... good chance we will get there soon. Seem to be following the trend of getting the months average rain in 5 days or less lol.

That rain on the radar almost seems stationary? A little blob appeared near Rockhampton .
 

Itsjustme

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Pacific Haven. Wide Bay
Am I overreacting to get a little excited by this blob near Childers?

Capture.PNG


Some activity further north on the central Qld Coast that seems to be pushing southwards with a bit of rain now near Rockhampton to Gladstone, whereas earlier this morning when I first commented on this it was all north of Rocky.

gladstone.PNG
Fat lady still in the dressing room, showers here at the moment. Got 25mm yesterday on my block Bom Pacific Haven Alert 600meters further up only 14. but Lady Eliot 119mm so yep fine line it was.
 

Ken Kato

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51095580752_1eb531a84c_o.gif


51096029008_4a54923c16_o.gif


51095564004_9168d4cfa4_o.gif


1st image above - 00z CIMSS analysis of upper divergence (solid contours). Fairly expansive belt of upper divergence across our area and out to sea with a local maximum just off the coast.
2nd image - 00z CIMSS analysis of vorticity at the 850hpa level showing local maxima a bit to our NW and SE.
3rd image - WZ radar animation. Appears to be some increase in precip happening with the circulation becoming more evident on radar.
Also for those interested, check out 00z ACCESS-C if you're a fan of the colour blue!
 

Stephen Kunze

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Jul 5, 2019
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51095580752_1eb531a84c_o.gif


51096029008_4a54923c16_o.gif


51095564004_9168d4cfa4_o.gif


1st image above - 00z CIMSS analysis of upper divergence (solid contours). Fairly expansive belt of upper divergence across our area and out to sea with a local maximum just off the coast.
2nd image - 00z CIMSS analysis of vorticity at the 850hpa level showing local maxima a bit to our NW and SE.
3rd image - WZ radar animation. Appears to be some increase in precip happening with the circulation becoming more evident on radar.
Also for those interested, check out 00z ACCESS-C if you're a fan of the colour blue!
Would you please post it Sir Ken, I don't have access to access-c, haha.
 
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BrettSS

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That's utter rubbish @BrisbaneWeatherMan
Those unfounded allegations of "falsifying" records thrown around by the climate sceptic tank were proven to be just that - unfounded and wrong. Not only that, it was proven to be unfounded by the investigation launched by the very government which was well-known to be one of the most anti-climate change governments this country's ever had. So that's saying something in itself.

The whole cycles thing that somehow implies that there's no other influences to climate than natural cycles is bollocks as well. There's both. Natural cycles AND anthropogenic forcing. It's not one or the other. Hundreds of climate scientists around the world working either as individuals, non-governmental organisations, government agencies, universities, etc have a collective experience of studying and analysing the most intricate of details about climate change for many decades. The findings have been consistently replicated by different organisations, different countries, using different proxies and methods ad nauseum for years and are similar to what's been observed in all sorts of different aspects of the climate system.

Well said, Ken. And it's also good to see the number of people who've upvoted your comment. Just a couple of days ago I was thinking how nice it is to have a place on the internet where we can discuss the weather, and where people may criticise the BOM, but no-one accuses them, without a shred of evidence, of outright dishonesty and fraud. This place has been an oasis for intelligent, rational and generally polite discussion; I'd hate for it to be taken over by conspiracy theorists and trolls.
 

TweedStorm

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Could be clear blue sky and the Gold Coast would still find a way to score 100mm.
Couldn't agree more, especially on the border here. Just a mosquito and fungus infested swamp down here.
Steady rain all day here currently 35mms since last night. BOM charts have the low sitting very close to the coast here tomorrow and Wednesday and looking very windy.
 

Flowin

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Nah it gets its initial and boundary conditions from the dump file that's created by the same cycle of ACCESS-G e.g. the 12z run of ACCESS-G gives its data to the 12z run of ACCESS-C as soon as the obs data's assimilated and initalised.

I know some may bag the models, but I generally don’t as I know the models are trying to simulate very complex physical interactions of weather with incomplete knowledge and also difficulties in specifying the full suite of initial conditions needed to kick off the simulation.

But ....... a call out is needed here from this event.
I do think that some questions will need to be asked of the Access C 12z run regarding how it could deviate so massively far from the Access G 12z run in just 30 hours of simulation (10pm last night to 4am Tuesday shown in the images below). The difference in rainfall totals over such a wide area from Bundaberg to Brisbane in that run is extraordinary.

Does access C get some other initial obs like radar fields as well, or what else would cause such a difference?

Surely it could not just be Access C cooking its own convective rainfall?

AB80C34D-8C5D-47DC-A59B-6E2615991F7C.jpeg
ABB36B82-56B4-49FF-A710-06F43CAB51AE.jpeg
 

Warlock_01

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Sunny Coast has been non-stop drizzle since daybreak from Noosa to Caloundra. With those small amounts the ground is already back to full saturation from the rain a fortnight ago.
Same here on the GC. Had 7mm yesterday, will update the figures in the morning, maybe we will get a downpour or not, otherwise I'm pretty happy we are getting this steady drizzle that has been saturating the ground since yesterday.
 

MegaMatch

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I know some may bag the models, but I generally don’t as I know the models are trying to simulate very complex physical interactions of weather with incomplete knowledge and also difficulties in specifying the full suite of initial conditions needed to kick off the simulation.

But ....... a call out is needed here from this event.
I do think that some questions will need to asked of the Access C 12z run regarding how it could deviate so massively far from the Access G 12z run in just 30 hours of simulation (10pm last night to 4am Tuesday shown in the images below). The difference in rainfall totals over such a wide area from Bundaberg to Brisbane in that run is extraordinary.

Does access C get some other initial obs like radar fields as well, or what else would cause such a difference?

Surely it could not just be Access C cooking its own convective rainfall?

AB80C34D-8C5D-47DC-A59B-6E2615991F7C.jpeg
ABB36B82-56B4-49FF-A710-06F43CAB51AE.jpeg

IMO a big chunk of the event was lost when that big blob developed overnight on the southern end of that offshore trough. Some models did pick it up, others, like EC, either didn't at all or still had it on the coast. And it wasn't alone. First two images are EC and UK, which both had the trough on the coast @ 10am this morning. Second two are GFS/CMA which had it out to sea:
EC.png UK.png GFS.png CMA.png

The stuff up near Gladstone atm just looks to be convection occurring with the upper trough itself which is forecast to continue weakening while pushing back towards the east.
 

Ken Kato

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I know some may bag the models, but I generally don’t as I know the models are trying to simulate very complex physical interactions of weather with incomplete knowledge and also difficulties in specifying the full suite of initial conditions needed to kick off the simulation.

But ....... a call out is needed here from this event.
I do think that some questions will need to be asked of the Access C 12z run regarding how it could deviate so massively far from the Access G 12z run in just 30 hours of simulation (10pm last night to 4am Tuesday shown in the images below). The difference in rainfall totals over such a wide area from Bundaberg to Brisbane in that run is extraordinary.

Does access C get some other initial obs like radar fields as well, or what else would cause such a difference?

Surely it could not just be Access C cooking its own convective rainfall?

AB80C34D-8C5D-47DC-A59B-6E2615991F7C.jpeg
ABB36B82-56B4-49FF-A710-06F43CAB51AE.jpeg
Nope, the current version of ACCESS-C you see on sites like WZ, etc doesn't assimilate radar data. Any brand new convection that develops in the model that wasn't there beforehand therefore has to be created by the model. The pre-operational version does assimilate radar data though.
 

Ken Kato

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upload_2021-4-5_15-41-47.png


I think all the models have really struggled to lock down the progression of this system. But I am surprised that EC and Access-C which are often the most reliable have actually been the most aggressive and inaccurate. I haven't seen 00z Access-C but from what Ken described it's more of the same.
@Nature's Fury couldn't agree more. The only models/systems I can recall which have been closer to the mark on a number of occasions so far for this event than many others have included ICON which consistently kept the heavier falls away from the coast. There have been some exceptions and it's also still overestimated rain amounts for the WBB and Northern Rivers so far but nowhere near as much as the others. It was hard to believe at the time though.

Another one has been MOSMIX, the combined EC/ICON system that's statistically corrected to past cases and also adjusted by obs for its short range forecasts. In the very early stages greater than about 6 days out, it was going for big amounts for Brisbane but since then, it's consistently been towards the lower end of rain totals for Brisbane out of most of the models. Having said that though, it still overestimated amounts for Brisbane (just not to the crazy levels of many of the others) and it's also boosted rain amounts for Brisbane within the next 24hrs.

That 8-14 day GEFS system that's calibrated to past data wasn't showing obviously high probabilties for meeting the 85th percentile of rainfall amounts for this timeframe either. But without having had a look at the multisatellite derived rainfall data, I think it's highly likely very heavy rain still fell just offshore.
In contrast, the WATL/PME chance of rain threshold maps (which I think are now calibrated for the public website as well but I'm not certain about that) have shown

Properly calibrated systems that use models have essentially "seen" all this before, both promising setups that turn out to be fizzers as well as the raging successes, and correct for that in their future forecasts so it's not surprising that they perform better than raw uncalibrated model forecasts. But the fact that even many of them have overestimated rain (just not as much as the raw products) for this setup implies that a situation like this is the exception, not the norm.

I think the most important lesson to learn from this setup is that overarching basic logic principles (in a meteorological sense) are hard to beat.
In this particular case, the fact that any time you have a setup which involves a) elongated vorticity with possible multiple centres and/or b) the edge of its rainfall is close to the coast and therefore, the "if you're close to the edge of an area, uncertainty is high" principle, it should raise a red flag for much higher uncertainty than many other setups, regardess of how confident or consistent models appear.
Not to mention the fact that many models find it harder to accurately forecast the annoyingly erratic and wishy washy systems we often get here during the warmer months, as opposed to say the steady march of cold fronts which models do really well at.

I should emphasise the words "so far" in what I said above too because until the system's further out to sea, we simply won't know with certainty. The track record of the unpredictability with this system has proven this repeatedly. I've seen quite a few people on fb call it for one way or the other, only for things to change, call it again for one way or the other, only for things to change yet again, etc.

As Mike Hauber also mentioned earlier, the big upper low and troughing is still well inland in QLD. The WV loop also clearly shows the rear edge of the big plume of moisture still has a way to go before it clears our area. See above WV image with radar and 500hpa streamlines via WZ Layers. Hence why I'd rather wait another 24hrs before saying yep, all the rain's gone now.
I must say, that band of rain coming down from the southern Capricornia into the northern WBB region doesn't look too shabby on radar now though.

And the fact that showery conditions have increased in northern parts once again shows the dangers of relying purely on current radar trends and discarding everything else to predict anything beyond a couple of hours. If you went purely by radar earlier this morning, pretty much all the precip would've well and truly cleared out by now.
 
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BrisbaneWeatherMan

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The low currently off the southeast Queensland coast may bring isolated heavy rainfall to the Flood Watch area with thunderstorm activity. The most likely timing of the isolated heavy rainfall is from Monday afternoon through to Tuesday evening. The heaviest falls are likely to occur around the Sunshine Coast area on Monday and extending southwards to the Queensland - New South Wales border during Tuesday.
 

Michael Hauber

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Interesting feature on Gladstone Radar:

Capture.PNG


The convection near Gladstone has steadily increased during the day. I will be watching this to see if it continues to develop, although current trajectory suggests it may stay out to sea. The convection east of Fraser Island did weaken a lot but seems to be rebuilding a little again.
 

PlumbBob

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Easter all, , Been an interesting event & the thread, credits as usual - good stuff.

I have not been dissapointed with said forecasts, if anything, I thought models, whether be it BOM and/or all recommended others - it has from the out-set been a tricky one as a whole over the last days. Its always been a matter of 'how close to Coast, how fast it move, what direction & all other underlying influences etc etc, , personally on the whole scenario, being a system that was always said to travel close to the Coast, maybe skew onshore for an amount, or drift away influencing precip on land. Seems the difference between on the coast or 1-200k off has not been understood & the fact the totals could be next to little or quite major but over-all, the low has tracked quite good to predictions in the whole scheme of things !

The interesting thing now is 'as we all guess and wonder, is, whats next ?
Could become 'near the event that was expected and hoped for altho doubt it to be as major as 2-3 weeks ago, prob not even close, but I digress,,,. & as many, hope areas that need rain actually get something atleast, but reality is unseen & to be watched !
I've always liked 'Flowins' words under signature "Models are for estimating and gauges / obs are for knowledge"
-----------------------------------
----------------
I have 'clicked' on the link from a few posts back for 'Meteologix' and made some 'çrude' calculations on its Precip forecasts from all the modelling selections over the Next 48 hrs for both Brizz and the GC, just for an Idea..
Eye for sight estimates from the Meteologix pages with totals from all and the Averages
----------->
Model------Loc---mm's --Loc---mm's
EZ,,,,, Brizz 300 - GC 100
ICN,,, Brizz 120 - GC 80
GFS,, Brizz 50 - " 40
GEM,, " " 125 - " 80
ACC,, " " 175 - " 90
UK,,,,, " " 150 - " 80
ARP,, " " 125 - " 100
CMA,, " " 50 - " 40
UM,,,,, " " 70 - " 40
TOTALS 1165 " 650
Divide x 9 =Ave 129.4 " 72.2

01.JPG

----------------------------------------------
---------------------------------
-----------------
-----
Also: Below, an average of 3-day precip for both (Brizz left) & (GC right) from Windy's ECMWF, GFS & Icon just for further interests, & hopfully usefull & there for just a reference to what may 'become - hence 'estimating ?
Tho it does look enticing - but reality will always win-out :thumbs:

05M2s.jpg
 

Tsunami

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Easter all, , Been an interesting event & the thread, credits as usual - good stuff.

I have not been dissapointed with said forecasts, if anything, I thought models, whether be it BOM and/or all recommended others - it has from the out-set been a tricky one as a whole over the last days. Its always been a matter of 'how close to Coast, how fast it move, what direction & all other underlying influences etc etc, , personally on the whole scenario, being a system that was always said to travel close to the Coast, maybe skew onshore for an amount, or drift away influencing precip on land. Seems the difference between on the coast or 1-200k off has not been understood & the fact the totals could be next to little or quite major but over-all, the low has tracked quite good to predictions in the whole scheme of things !

The interesting thing now is 'as we all guess and wonder, is, whats next ?
Could become 'near the event that was expected and hoped for altho doubt it to be as major as 2-3 weeks ago, prob not even close, but I digress,,,. & as many, hope areas that need rain actually get something atleast, but reality is unseen & to be watched !
I've always liked 'Flowins' words under signature "Models are for estimating and gauges / obs are for knowledge"
-----------------------------------
----------------
I have 'clicked' on the link from a few posts back for 'Meteologix' and made some 'çrude' calculations on its Precip forecasts from all the modelling selections over the Next 48 hrs for both Brizz and the GC, just for an Idea..
Eye for sight estimates from the Meteologix pages with totals from all and the Averages
----------->
Model------Loc---mm's --Loc---mm's
EZ,,,,, Brizz 300 - GC 100
ICN,,, Brizz 120 - GC 80
GFS,, Brizz 50 - " 40
GEM,, " " 125 - " 80
ACC,, " " 175 - " 90
UK,,,,, " " 150 - " 80
ARP,, " " 125 - " 100
CMA,, " " 50 - " 40
UM,,,,, " " 70 - " 40
TOTALS 1165 " 650
Divide x 9 =Ave 129.4 " 72.2

01.JPG

----------------------------------------------
---------------------------------
-----------------
-----
Also: Below, an average of 3-day precip for both (Brizz left) & (GC right) from Windy's ECMWF, GFS & Icon just for further interests, & hopfully usefull & there for just a reference to what may 'become - hence 'estimating ?
Tho it does look enticing - but reality will always win-out :thumbs:

05M2s.jpg
Easter all, , Been an interesting event & the thread, credits as usual - good stuff.

I have not been dissapointed with said forecasts, if anything, I thought models, whether be it BOM and/or all recommended others - it has from the out-set been a tricky one as a whole over the last days. Its always been a matter of 'how close to Coast, how fast it move, what direction & all other underlying influences etc etc, , personally on the whole scenario, being a system that was always said to travel close to the Coast, maybe skew onshore for an amount, or drift away influencing precip on land. Seems the difference between on the coast or 1-200k off has not been understood & the fact the totals could be next to little or quite major but over-all, the low has tracked quite good to predictions in the whole scheme of things !

The interesting thing now is 'as we all guess and wonder, is, whats next ?
Could become 'near the event that was expected and hoped for altho doubt it to be as major as 2-3 weeks ago, prob not even close, but I digress,,,. & as many, hope areas that need rain actually get something atleast, but reality is unseen & to be watched !
I've always liked 'Flowins' words under signature "Models are for estimating and gauges / obs are for knowledge"
-----------------------------------
----------------
I have 'clicked' on the link from a few posts back for 'Meteologix' and made some 'çrude' calculations on its Precip forecasts from all the modelling selections over the Next 48 hrs for both Brizz and the GC, just for an Idea..
Eye for sight estimates from the Meteologix pages with totals from all and the Averages
----------->
Model------Loc---mm's --Loc---mm's
EZ,,,,, Brizz 300 - GC 100
ICN,,, Brizz 120 - GC 80
GFS,, Brizz 50 - " 40
GEM,, " " 125 - " 80
ACC,, " " 175 - " 90
UK,,,,, " " 150 - " 80
ARP,, " " 125 - " 100
CMA,, " " 50 - " 40
UM,,,,, " " 70 - " 40
TOTALS 1165 " 650
Divide x 9 =Ave 129.4 " 72.2

01.JPG

----------------------------------------------
---------------------------------
-----------------
-----
Also: Below, an average of 3-day precip for both (Brizz left) & (GC right) from Windy's ECMWF, GFS & Icon just for further interests, & hopfully usefull & there for just a reference to what may 'become - hence 'estimating ?
Tho it does look enticing - but reality will always win-out :thumbs:

05M2s.jpg
Well done plumbbob, alot of work in that post same with others that add big posts with still shots. Us dummies really apreciate it :)
 

MegaMatch

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It's a far cry from the sorts of totals we were expecting last night though. This is just garbage coming across with the upper trough. Can't really complain I suppose, had 40mm in the last couple of days. To get a flood event to actually happen up here, every*little*tiny*thing has to line up which 90% of the time never happens. This "event" was a prime example of that.

Remember when we used to see these on our side of the country? Yeah neither can I.

IDW60280.png
 

Tsunami

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It's a far cry from the sorts of totals we were expecting last night though. This is just garbage coming across with the upper trough. Can't really complain I suppose, had 40mm in the last couple of days. To get a flood event to actually happen up here, every*little*tiny*thing has to line up which 90% of the time never happens. This "event" was a prime example of that.

Remember when we used to see these on our side of the country? Yeah neither can I.

IDW60280.png
You should move to fiordland south nz
4.0 meters of rain per year average
Youll soon like Rocky
 

Tasmanian Devil

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It's a far cry from the sorts of totals we were expecting last night though. This is just garbage coming across with the upper trough. Can't really complain I suppose, had 40mm in the last couple of days. To get a flood event to actually happen up here, every*little*tiny*thing has to line up which 90% of the time never happens. This "event" was a prime example of that.

Remember when we used to see these on our side of the country? Yeah neither can I.

IDW60280.png

Unfortunately this system has left devastation in East Timor and the Indonesian island of Flores
 

MegaMatch

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You should move to fiordland south nz
4.0 meters of rain per year average
Youll soon like Rocky

TBH I'd be more than happy with the metre of rain they get every year on the Gold Coast and northern NSW.

Unfortunately this system has left devastation in East Timor and the Indonesian island of Flores

Yeah, I know, but

1) They're exciting to watch & often tricky but still fun to track (obviously not so exciting when you're under a Cat 3+)
2) They can provide some of the best drought-breaking rains to a drought-parched state/country.

Of course I don't wish the devastation & destruction that comes with them but the fact of the matter is many areas of Queensland could use the rainfall from one of them right now.

Remember this outlook?

FOUR cyclones are expected to form in the Coral Sea this season in what is expected to be an above average season for tropical cyclones.

The Bureau of Meteorology has released its tropical cyclone outlook for the 2020-21 season, which runs from November to April.

So what happened? Suspiciously curious if there's a link to the below-average cyclone season this year and the all the troughing and floods the east coast of Aus south of CQ endured all season. EG too much upper troughing over NSW which often means more shear over the western Tasman/Coral Sea. 2007/08 also sticks out in my mind as another season that was supposed to be above average but turned out to be a troughy mess. But it could also be related to the MJO which seemed as though it spent most of its time over the other side of the world.
 

Ken Kato

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TBH I'd be more than happy with the metre of rain they get every year on the Gold Coast and northern NSW.



Yeah, I know, but

1) They're exciting to watch & often tricky but still fun to track (obviously not so exciting when you're under a Cat 3+)
2) They can provide some of the best drought-breaking rains to a drought-parched state/country.

Of course I don't wish the devastation & destruction that comes with them but the fact of the matter is many areas of Queensland could use the rainfall from one of them right now.

Remember this outlook?



So what happened? Suspiciously curious if there's a link to the below-average cyclone season this year and the all the troughing and floods the east coast of Aus south of CQ endured all season. EG too much upper troughing over NSW which often means more shear over the western Tasman/Coral Sea. 2007/08 also sticks out in my mind as another season that was supposed to be above average but turned out to be a troughy mess. But it could also be related to the MJO which seemed as though it spent most of its time over the other side of the world.
I vaguely remember looking at a reanalysis a couple or so months ago for the first half of the summer we had and noticing there was stronger than normal shear in the northern and northeastern Coral Sea during that period. It was lower further south but that northern and northeastern section of the Coral is where a lot of TC's are born so it's critical.

And LOL @ "Yeah neither can I"
 

Ken Kato

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Hmm thought I'd posted this on here earlier today but evidently not. These were my thought bubbles I mentioned during a convo with one of the forecasters this morning as to why most models had such difficulty handling this system:

" My feeling is still with the MCS, the elongated vorticity, and competing embedded enhanced areas of vorticity screwing with the models. "
 

Seabreezes

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A flood watch still remains current for the Orara and Bellinger/Kalang Rivers, though I'm expecting it to be cancelled tomorrow morning unless forecast rainfall amounts from the onshore showers over the next couple of days increases a bit more from current predictions.
Flood Watch for the Orara and Bellinger Rivers
Issued at 9:45 am EST on Monday 5 April 2021
Flood Watch Number: 6

MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THE ORARA AND BELLINGER RIVERS FROM TUESDAY
Heavy rainfall associated with a low pressure trough off the northern coast has the potential to cause minor flooding along the Orara and Bellinger Rivers from Tuesday
The catchments likely to be impacted are saturated from recent rainfall, which increases the risk of flooding.
River rises are expected in the flood watch catchments in response to the forecast rain and minor flooding may develop in the Orara and Bellinger Rivers from Tuesday. Flood Classes (minor, moderate, major) are only defined for catchments where the Bureau provides a flood warning service.
Localised flooding and disruption to some transport routes are possible.
Catchments likely to be affected include:

Orara River
minor flooding

Bellinger and Kalang Rivers
minor flooding

Flooding is no longer expected in the following catchments: Tweed and Rouse Rivers, Wilsons River, Richmond River, Brunswick River and Marshalls Creek.


You should move to fiordland south nz
4.0 meters of rain per year average
Youll soon like Rocky
Knowing poor Mega's luck, there'd be some kind of climatic shift and a permanent high pressure system would establish itself off the east coast of the South Island, and the Fiordlands on the west coast would frequently receive the foehn effect instead :cry:
When I was at the Fiordlands on January 8th 2012, a high pressure system off the east coast of the South Island reversed the foehn effect, resulting in a fine, sunny, 27°C day there:
UxCH7nN.jpg

k9WtYwx.jpg

M70j3PJ.jpg
 

mcspero

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Helensvale, QLD
Another 50mm around Peachester, Melany on the assumption that convective blob off the coast makes it ashore will likely get somerset dam to 80%.

It certainly feels like the rain bands are finally wrapping around the low enough to come on shore vs the drizzle we have had most of the day due to the upper low.

The other thing that is interesting is despite the low intensity radar echos earlier in the day, there was some suprisingly good falls in some coastal areas. 38mm at Crohamhurst and 51mm at Melany for example.
 
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