Predictions East Coast Rain Event 3-11 Feb 2020

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DaveM

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Wavey, don’t blame you for being nervous, how good would Fitzroy Falls be!!!

Well the BOM have upped the ante for me, 35-60 tomorrow and around 15-30 today,

Looking at a big blob of rain to our north but heading south, hopefully it meets up with the moisture entering from the east and gets excited.

Seems it should be a wet night here, been virtually nothing so far but looking forward to my gutters overflowing tonight :D
 
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Lady Penelope

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Sep 7, 2014
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So far we have received an enormous 3mm of rain from this event in Canberra, according to my rain gauge in Tuggeranong. Miserly scattered showers. Sky is light outside. Please can you east coast people send some of that wet goodness our way!
 
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jonathanc

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So far we have received an enormous 3mm of rain from this event in Canberra, according to my rain gauge in Tuggeranong. Miserly scattered showers. Sky is light outside. Please can you east coast people send some of that wet goodness our way!
A big blob of rain just missed us to the south, but the main event for Canberra is Sunday arvo into Monday.
 

DaveM

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Lady P, much the same here but looking at satpic for inland NSW this morning has me much more optimistic. Hope you get soaked soon, hopefully the same here in Bathurst
 
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Wavey

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Jul 3, 2019
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Wavey, don’t blame you for being nervous, how good would Fitzroy Falls be!!!

Well the BOM have upped the ante for me, 35-60 tomorrow and around 15-30 today,

Yeah Fitzroy would be great right now. Hope that forecast comes off for you Dave, that would be a great bit of rain.
 
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DaveM

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I’m watching storms up Moree n gunnedah way to move towards us later today.

On the WZ radar with wind obs etc you can see little dips in the isobars north of me, I like that
 
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Wavey

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GFS is showing no heavy rain here until the early hours of tomorrow morning. Hard to say which model is right, EC looks more realistic accounting for topography but maybe that's just because it's more high res than GFS. Both are going all guns blazing tomorrow night though with 50+ mm in a 3 hour period at times for parts of the ranges.
 
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Wavey

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Att: Brains Trust, are we in agreeance that we will really see 35Knts breeze all day tomorrow in the Botany Bay Region?? BOM seem to have upgraded to this

GFS and EC say yes, with 45-50 kt gusts!
upload_2020-2-8_19-45-28.png
 
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rocketboy

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BoM has also upped the totals for Albion Park which I never thought was possible given the already high amounts. 250 to 450mm, which btw translates to a 50% chance of 250mm and a 25% chance of 450mm.

Screenshot_20200209-092356_Chrome.jpg

what the URL for that beta version - main page does not shows today precip numbers.
 

Val Desire

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Jul 12, 2018
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Where will the thunderstorms come from that are in the BOM forcasts for Sydney over the next few days? Why wouldn't this weather system just move away?
 

Wavey

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Jul 3, 2019
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GFS and EC are having trouble coming to an agreement on what the rain will do tonight here.

GFS 7pm: Goes for a very concentrated high rain intensity area focused over the Illawarra coast
upload_2020-2-9_15-16-57.png


EC 7pm: Seems to have it sticking more so to the ranges like a more convective, unstable setup.
upload_2020-2-9_15-18-20.png


By 7am tomorrow GFS has the rain mostly cleared while EC has storms most of the night.
GFS:
upload_2020-2-9_15-22-26.png


EC:
upload_2020-2-9_15-21-51.png
 
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KylePee

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Feb 10, 2012
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So what's the morning commute going to be like in Sydney tomorrow?
F____n attrocious. Hopefully thousands of people work from home. I'm thinking of doubling the time I allow to get to the NBs to be on duty, even though it's an early start. Could be tricky picking a route that'll be open up that way!
 

Ozgirl

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Jul 5, 2007
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F____n attrocious. Hopefully thousands of people work from home. I'm thinking of doubling the time I allow to get to the NBs to be on duty, even though it's an early start. Could be tricky picking a route that'll be open up that way!
Yeah I keep checking my work emails for the official, stay home if easier, email.
 

Ken Kato

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Jul 13, 2019
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49509732073_0c9263cec2_b.jpg


Above: I dusted the cobwebs off my flash-flood script and ran it for this evening through Monday using a water runoff parameter and 3-hourly QPF via a lagged ensemble of the past 3 GFS runs.
 
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