1. There's more to this forum than meets the eye!

    We have a vibrant community here conversing about all sorts of non-snow topics such as music, sport, politics and technology. Simply register to reveal all our Après topics.

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

Event Eastern Australia Low Pressure Troughs 22 Oct-31 Oct

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by AshestoAshes, Oct 20, 2020.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    379
    Likes Received:
    811
    Location:
    Voyager Point NSW
    Thought i might start this thread off as we're coming up on what will be a widespread rain event in Eastern Australia. Best way to sum up this event is quidge disappears for 2 weeks we get a lot of rain LOL.

    The BOM WATL map is a good place to start as it doesn't over promise.


    Synoptically it's important to note that most the rain for East Coast NSW will be off some SEers. The rest should see a good dose of storms esp SE QLD and NE NSW.
    [​IMG]
     
  2. Sbooker

    Sbooker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2015
    Messages:
    1,842
    Likes Received:
    2,418
    I can't like that enough.
     
    AshestoAshes and Flowin like this.
  3. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    42,837
    Likes Received:
    46,411
    Location:
    woonona
    We've got a beach house booked up at Pretty beach CC this Friday... Sunday.
    Will be interesting to see Saturday Arvo...
    Stormy
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Daddy Long Legs in the interior of Aus. What a complex of troughs.


    This should be widespread, and fun.

    EC's Simulated 500mb Water Vapour for Saturday 5AM:
     
  5. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    42,837
    Likes Received:
    46,411
    Location:
    woonona
    Thoughts on Saturday?
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Ensembles is bullish as hell over determs at the moment.
    I reckon ensembles might be over cooking it for us basin/coastal dwellers. The bulk of the instab looks confined to the West of the GDR. All depends on how the coastal flow is pushing into the basins.
    Robinson to Nowra a good corridor for this IMO.
     
  7. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    724
    Likes Received:
    1,791
    Location:
    Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
    A few forecast rainfall totals, October 21-27:

    Sydney: 16- 41 mm
    Penrith: 18-51
    Newcastle: 16-53
    Bathurst: 29-66
    Wollongong: 25-49
    Canberra: 37-73

    Some good falls where needed. Nothing excessive.
     
    Ted Harper, nfip, SMSkier and 2 others like this.
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Saturday 8am-2pm is when the furniture starts getting rearranged for much of the NSW population.
    EC (00z) 11am Saturday:
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Ensembles doubling all those totals.
     
  10. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    42,837
    Likes Received:
    46,411
    Location:
    woonona
    I was looking at the steering winds and being hopeful.
    I'd rather not have a wet weekend away
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    700mb straight outa the NW. Classic Nina.
    I’d expect the Radar should resemble a widespread QR code by mid morning Saturday.
    Not so sure about flash flooding territory though.
     
  12. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    42,837
    Likes Received:
    46,411
    Location:
    woonona
    Our place (deck) faces NW.. On the water..
    Going to be interesting watching it..
    Looks to kick a dirty southerly later...
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I’d expect a lot of those severe storms over the interior, north of the Hunter, rather than impacting Newy, Sydney IMO.
     
    Donzah likes this.
  15. sbm_

    sbm_ One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2017
    Messages:
    1,999
    Likes Received:
    4,194
    I feel you @Donzah, guess who else had a nice outdoorsy holiday planned next week!

    Just doing our part for the farmers and fireys I suppose.
     
    Donzah likes this.
  16. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    42,837
    Likes Received:
    46,411
    Location:
    woonona
    That's my gut feel.
     
    AshestoAshes and POW_hungry like this.
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Still some divergence between GFS & EC.
    EC backing ensembles

    GFS 12z Accum precip to Tuesday 27th


    EC Determs 12z Accum Precip to Tuesday 27th
     
  18. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    24,619
    Likes Received:
    20,009
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    Golf at Bathurst this weekend looks wet. Dam filler though.
     
    AshestoAshes likes this.
  19. kylep

    kylep Cage rattler Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2012
    Messages:
    7,765
    Likes Received:
    14,390
    Location:
    Jumped the wall to Mexico
    How's Brissy looking for Saturday?
    If I attempt to read some of the charts, looks like far lower impact?
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I see media jumping on the bandwagon RE: Grand Final + severe storms but I think the risky stuff is all West of Bris and the GDR.
    Still highly likely some TS activity but not convinced there's a show stopper in there.

    There will be rain however.
     
  21. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    66,576
    Likes Received:
    47,036
    Location:
    Mountains
    Can we have 100mm in Jindy please
     
    SMSkier and malas1 like this.
  22. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    1,048
    Likes Received:
    2,795
    00z ec was indicating much of the east coast is under the pump. Of course some localised area's will see heavy falls.

     
  23. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    1,048
    Likes Received:
    2,795
  24. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    42,837
    Likes Received:
    46,411
    Location:
    woonona
    N/NW sliders and a upper low with proceeding trough...
    Looks like the front catches up around 11pm
     
    AshestoAshes likes this.
  25. D_Dog

    D_Dog Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2005
    Messages:
    181
    Likes Received:
    47
    Location:
    Sydney
    Does anyone produce a map, similar to the ECMWF Total precipitation forecast, for after these typs of events (showing the recorded rainfall)? It would be very interesting to see the end result, particularly given the hit and miss nature of thunderstorms.
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    BOM observational tools would be your most accurate/reliable source:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/...od=daily&region=nat&year=2020&month=10&day=22

    Thing is, Deterministic modelling won't offer much accuracy from TS convection. You need a HRRR model (3km res) which Access C+ is about as close as we get, at 4km res.
     
    D_Dog and AshestoAshes like this.
  27. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    724
    Likes Received:
    1,791
    Location:
    Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
    Rainfall totals forecast for next seven days:

    Sydney: 33 - 81 mm
    Penrith: 40 -81 mm

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Sunday and Monday turned out to be the coolest days since early September. The forecast 19° might be too high.

    Anyway, I’m not particularly looking forward to this event. For Sydney, it looks like one likely stormy Saturday then persistent cool, overcast, showery weather under endless long-fetch South Easterlies. The storms move North as we get ”stranded” on the wrong side of the trough. I will lodge an official complaint once I find out who to lodge it with.
     
    SnowBound, Homer, D_Dog and 3 others like this.
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yeah, sadly a bit of a non-event for the Sydney basin.
     
    AshestoAshes likes this.
  29. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    42,837
    Likes Received:
    46,411
    Location:
    woonona
    Nowra is going to cop it around 2-4pm Saturday IMO.
     
    AshestoAshes and POW_hungry like this.
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    With a backhanding Southerly 30 knot to follow.
     
    AshestoAshes likes this.
  31. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    379
    Likes Received:
    811
    Location:
    Voyager Point NSW
    EC progging a 100+mm over a number of Sydney Catchments, we'll see Warragamba spill again. Risk of flooding on the cards in the Hawkesbury-Nepean region. A constant threat will form over this La Nina period as any event will cause a Warragamba to spill so we've got be wary.

    -----
    Enough of that negativity :) despite the endless SEers i'm extremely stoked for those west of the divide. It's extremely well deserved after how terrible it's been between 2017-19 and hopefully we can see an end to this drought soon enough!

    Noticed Burrendong has sneaked in at 45% very nice maybe a Blowering Spill after this event.
     
  32. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    5,182
    Likes Received:
    15,127
    Location:
    Canberra
    La Niña is delivering for Canberra. 20-45mm forecast for Saturday (BOM) then showers for the entire week. Bored children alert ..

     
  33. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    1,048
    Likes Received:
    2,795
    The upward forcing from lowlevel convergence increases the potential for thunderstorm development. These are good numbers along the trough.

     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Access C picking up on a decent active cell in/around Dubbo near 7pm this evening.
     
    kathrynsview and stormkite2000 like this.
  35. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    1,048
    Likes Received:
    2,795






    western side of the low picking up dust.
     
    kathrynsview, Steve777 and POW_hungry like this.
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Particularly active cell with good TS activity to the West of Bermagui.
     
    Homer and Steve777 like this.
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Bega sitting on 12mm since 9am.
     
    Steve777 likes this.
  38. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    724
    Likes Received:
    1,791
    Location:
    Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
    Warm, fairly muggy and breezy today, reaching 26° in the City and 31° at Penrith. The car thermometer was showing 29-30° near Parramatta.

    The event is up and running in the South and West of the State, with a Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued (for DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAILSTONES and HEAVY RAINFALL) applying to much of the West of the State. Storms are active from the far South Coast stretching Westwards into the Riverina.

    —-

    Milky skies, two jacarandas in full bloom and a fake cow - Parramatta Park this afternoon:

    [​IMG]
     
  39. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    42,837
    Likes Received:
    46,411
    Location:
    woonona
    Radar is lit...

    However on the central coast near the mouth of Broken bay we're being smashed by a sea breeze . Has no "feel" of a strong inland event here.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  40. Tanuki

    Tanuki Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2010
    Messages:
    10,836
    Likes Received:
    6,902
    Non event in Melbourne so far.
     
  41. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    385
    Likes Received:
    902
    Location:
    Maragle, NSW; 948 m AMSL; 35° 51’ 30.06” S
    Getting absolutely lashed by this storm! Already 17.6 mm in just around 20 mins of its arrival, with precip rates up to a staggering 44 mm / hr! Temp down to 12.8° C; 100% RH.
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Good looking cells out to the East Walgett and picked up JUST by the Morenvale Oz Forecast cam, left of frame.
    (star is approx location Morenvale with frame scope roughly in-between blue lines).
    The animation here shows some quick growth: HERE.

     
  43. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    42,837
    Likes Received:
    46,411
    Location:
    woonona
    I expect Kevin Costner to stride into shot..
    "build it, and they will come"
     
    Longys and POW_hungry like this.
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I thought it had a more 'Dances With Wolves' vibe to it, if I am honest.
     
    kathrynsview likes this.
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Line of storms from Roma to Dubbo really got going in the last 2 hours, just West of the GDR.
     
    MarkV, kathrynsview and Kletterer like this.
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Infra red + Zehr loop of that cell East of Walgett topped out at -70ºC, putting it somewhere in the upper Jet.
     
    MarkV and Kletterer like this.
  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    19,995
    Likes Received:
    22,044
    Location:
    Canberra
    Some big fat Inland CAPE
     
  48. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    9,979
    Likes Received:
    19,919
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT


    IDN21033
    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

    Severe Thunderstorm Warning
    for DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAILSTONES and HEAVY RAINFALL
    For people in Central West Slopes and Plains, South West Slopes, Riverina, Lower Western, Upper Western and parts of Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, North West Slopes and Plains and Snowy Mountains Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 3:56 pm Friday, 23 October 2020.


    Weather Situation:

    Severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Orange, Moree, Dubbo, Wagga Wagga, Albury, Cobar and Broken Hill.
     
    POW_hungry and AshestoAshes like this.
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,080
    Likes Received:
    30,799
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Changing moods of Morenvale today:
     
  50. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    379
    Likes Received:
    811
    Location:
    Voyager Point NSW
    This system is looking absolutely stunning in every respect.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.