1. There's more to this forum than meets the eye!

    We have a vibrant community here conversing about all sorts of non-snow topics such as music, sport, politics and technology. Simply register to reveal all our Après topics.

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

Eastern Australia Low Pressure Troughs 22 Oct-31 Oct

Discussion in 'Systems & Severe' started by AshestoAshes, Oct 20, 2020.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,405
    Likes Received:
    31,499
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    For me Saturday AM looks most interesting for TS and instability.
    It's a bit of melting pot by early morning over the Sydney basin IMO.
    Those upper level temps are awesome for October over mid-state NSW.
     
    AshestoAshes likes this.
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,405
    Likes Received:
    31,499
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Kempsey AP just picked up near-on 40mm in 60 mins to 9pm.
    57mm in the last 4 hours.
    Look at those winds - 2 successive cells.
     
    Trail Blazer likes this.
  3. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    44,647
    Likes Received:
    49,217
    Location:
    woonona
    Some nasty cells just offshore..

    I'd rather not flood...
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,405
    Likes Received:
    31,499
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    32mm out in Parramatta this morning.
    Stalling on radar too as that Northerly drifts Eastward.
     
    Homer likes this.
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,405
    Likes Received:
    31,499
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Low stalled on the Sydney coast.
    That puts @Donzah & Co. in it's sights for convergence of precip.
     
  6. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    44,647
    Likes Received:
    49,217
    Location:
    woonona
    Yeah.. pumps are manned.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  7. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    44,647
    Likes Received:
    49,217
    Location:
    woonona
    Gut feel..
    Albion Park area horse shoe will cop it...
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  8. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    834
    Likes Received:
    2,168
    Location:
    Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
    I was woken by heavy rain around 4:00. Chatswood has had 21 mm overnight, Sydney OH 18 mm, of which 15 mm fell between 4:30 and 5:00.

    It hasn’t rained here in the last couple of hours. The Sun tried to come out, with little success. We’re back to the usual - solid grey gloom. The rain hasn’t gone far - it’s shifted a little South and seems to be rotating but not shifting. As POW-hungry says, there’s a stalled low near Sydney. From the radar, the low seems to be centred close to Sydney Airport

    :
     
    Homer and POW_hungry like this.
  9. Undies

    Undies Pizza!

    Joined:
    May 15, 2002
    Messages:
    21,307
    Likes Received:
    15,479
    Location:
    Top drawer
    About 20mm in the Dog-o-meter overnight, which I bore wet witness to during a 4am pee break.
     
  10. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,991
    Likes Received:
    1,208
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Pymble, Sydney
    Barely anything here and appears on radar to be petering out. Maybe Saturday
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,405
    Likes Received:
    31,499
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yeah Northern burbs got skunked this morning.
    Looking at the 700mb I'd hazard a guess to say too much Northerly wind shear to support standing convection.
     
  12. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2009
    Messages:
    14,706
    Likes Received:
    19,032
    Location:
    Lower BM's
    Looks like that's pretty much it until tomorrow night/early Saturday morning as the next trough moves through. Inland will cop a good soaking this time around as well.

    Picked up another 10mm here in Glenbrook so that pushes us past the 100mm mark for October. Not behd
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,405
    Likes Received:
    31,499
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Amazing La Nina & MJO kick, for the week.
     
  14. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    24,975
    Likes Received:
    20,849
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    Nice towers developing east of tumut at present.
     
  15. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2009
    Messages:
    14,706
    Likes Received:
    19,032
    Location:
    Lower BM's
    Seems I spoke too soon, decent blob of convection up on the ranges. Under a bit of a rain train at home and it is pizzling down.
     
    Donzah likes this.
  16. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    44,647
    Likes Received:
    49,217
    Location:
    woonona
    I could see it popping up as I drove home from sydney.
    Was real humid and sunny in sydney...
    Then back to greybird mizzle at Bulli tops
     
  17. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    834
    Likes Received:
    2,168
    Location:
    Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
    Storms cells have been bubbling away in the Blue Mountains, including a black core near Putty, all moving slowly to the NE. Cells are also developing near Maitland and Cessnock.

    Meanwhile, we’re having a mild, sunny afternoon here with scattered cloud and light Southerlies.

    Here is the view to the West a little while ago. The distant towers are obscured somewhat by lower cloud:

    [​IMG]
     
    Seabreezes, Eddy and Trail Blazer like this.
  18. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    1,065
    Likes Received:
    2,179
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    Sorry, just posted the below in the NSW thread. It should have been here.

    "Geez, there's been some stunning development in the past 30 minutes in western Sydney.
    Sky looks absolutely volatile overhead and currently just getting a light shower. The better action is about 10 k's west of here.
    Have heard a few rumbles so far. Hearing the lightning crackles on the AM radio.
    Didn't expect this, as about 2 hours ago I was out and about in the car and the skies looked very dry. Humidity levels felt very low. Then, all of a sudden, boom, up went the towers. Great to watch in real time.

    The dry skies I spoke about are exactly what is in @Steve777 's pic above.
     
    Steve777, Ted Harper and Trail Blazer like this.
  19. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,991
    Likes Received:
    1,208
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Pymble, Sydney
    Deep thunder audible here despite it not looking as if the cell(s) will reach us. Must be quite good to be under.
     
    Steve777 and Homer like this.
  20. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    1,065
    Likes Received:
    2,179
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    There's been moderate rain here and plenty of flash/bang.
    Could last for another half hour or so going by the radar.
     
    Steve777 and Perfect Storm like this.
  21. Perfect Storm

    Perfect Storm Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    82
    Likes Received:
    129
    Location:
    Carramar, South West Sydney.
    Some nice falls about - locally there hasnt been too much to write home about

    4 mm up to 9 am at Bankstown AWS for last night's efforts. It was dry underneath some trees so really not much at all.

    Only 65 mm up for the month. A nice storm would be good - fingers crossed.
     
    Homer likes this.
  22. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2017
    Messages:
    1,862
    Likes Received:
    6,835
    Location:
    Northern Beaches, Sydney,
    Is very Pretty here at uni

     
    Seabreezes, MarkV, Steve777 and 2 others like this.
  23. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2019
    Messages:
    2,097
    Likes Received:
    17,845
    Lots of reports now of extensive and severe damage not surprisingly.

     
  24. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    1,065
    Likes Received:
    2,179
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    Wow. Hail that large is scary. I've only once ever experienced it, at my previous place in Dural. I took similar photos that day. Hail measured 6.5 cm's. I had 7 skylights in that house. Amazingly, none of them smashed, even though they were pelted by cricket balls. I was astounded. Thank you Velux.
     
    Steve777 and Ken Kato like this.
  25. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2011
    Messages:
    9,035
    Likes Received:
    8,002
    Location:
    Normanhurst/Jindabyne
    We had hail that size in Feb 2017 in Hornsby Shire. Smashed our pergola, NRMA insurance came to save the day, eventually.
     
    Ken Kato likes this.
  26. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    1,065
    Likes Received:
    2,179
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    I had my pergola smashed the same day but it wasn't that size. Was about 4-5 cm's. The pergola was 20 years old so the polycarbonate roofing had become quite brittle.
    The original storm I spoke of with 6.5 cm hail was about 8 years earlier. 2009 I think. Daughter was quite young and was terrified by it. So was I tbh!! :)
     
    POW_hungry and Billy_Buttons like this.
  27. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2011
    Messages:
    9,035
    Likes Received:
    8,002
    Location:
    Normanhurst/Jindabyne
    We had the supercell burst right above us...bloody terrifying!
     
    Homer and Ken Kato like this.
  28. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    1,422
    Likes Received:
    8,368
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    The definition of the upper low on the Sat water vapour current over Adelaide at the moment is impressive.

     
    Steve777, Donzah, Homer and 3 others like this.
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,405
    Likes Received:
    31,499
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Personally, I would've enjoyed the ULL cold pools arrival later in the day on Saturday, but lapse rates looking quite steep by Saturday AM.
    We should see some good rumbles out of it, early.
    8am 500mb EC (00z)


    But for me it really gets interesting in the arvo where the ULL cold pool lingers and straddles the GDR.
    I think we'll see some quick poppers in the basin by mid-arvo as that convergence clears out, shortly after midday. Not dissimilar to today but in more favourable conditions for the Sydney Basin.
    South coast also at risk IMO.
     
    SnowBound, Ken Kato, Steve777 and 3 others like this.
  30. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    1,065
    Likes Received:
    2,179
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    Ken Kato likes this.
  31. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    1,065
    Likes Received:
    2,179
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    A nice juicy stormy rain band headed north east from the Southern Tablelands atm.
    Will it hold together through the Basin?
     
  32. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    44,647
    Likes Received:
    49,217
    Location:
    woonona
    Or us in Wollongong
     
  33. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    1,065
    Likes Received:
    2,179
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    Yes, you as well.
     
  34. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,991
    Likes Received:
    1,208
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Pymble, Sydney
    It's right over the catchment either way.
     
  35. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    44,647
    Likes Received:
    49,217
    Location:
    woonona
    Looks like the onshore blowing against the escarpment will run it along the range..
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,405
    Likes Received:
    31,499
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Camden direct hit. Looks like a rogue one.
    Not even AXS-C had this one on paper.
     
  37. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    1,065
    Likes Received:
    2,179
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    Still not convinced it will hold together through the basin. I've seen stuff like this tear to pieces in the past.
    It's a waiting game and I'll hold hope that it does.
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,405
    Likes Received:
    31,499
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yeah, already being eroded by the onshore flow.
    EDIT: there is no onshore flow, looks to have lost it's inflow off the GDR.

    This will be a different story Saturday arvo/evening.
     
    Homer likes this.
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,405
    Likes Received:
    31,499
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    5mm in the last hour at High Range river AWS.
     
  40. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    44,647
    Likes Received:
    49,217
    Location:
    woonona
    Coldest ****en spot...
    * I have a supplier right near that aws
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,405
    Likes Received:
    31,499
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yeah just edited my post above. Assumed there was an onshore component but nah.
    It looks like its lost it's inflow off the escarpment/higher topo.
     
  42. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2007
    Messages:
    1,668
    Likes Received:
    2,059
    Location:
    Northern Beaches, Sydney
    Will be visiting folks in Blackheath this weekend. Storm potential you recon?
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,405
    Likes Received:
    31,499
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    After a wet morning you should experience TS activity early Saturday, but the arvo holds decent risk of TS activity IMO. Worth keeping an eye on rogue cells.
     
    SnowBound and Homer like this.
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,405
    Likes Received:
    31,499
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    A good day for storm chasers today around Central & Southern Tablelands & SW Slopes today IMO.
    There's huge potential for severe, damaging TS today.
    Gut feeling is that Taralga to Crookwell will be in the firing line this arvo, out of the NW.

    Tomorrow still looks good closer to the coast.
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,405
    Likes Received:
    31,499
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    First cell in the region straight through the sticks?
    Crookwell to it's left Taralga to it's right...
     
    Homer likes this.
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,405
    Likes Received:
    31,499
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I expect this to line of instability to fire up over the next hour, hour + half.
    Clear skies (ish) ahead of it should yield good surface heating & inflow IMO.
    You can see some towers firing up NW of Griffith, already.
     
    Adaminaby Angler and Homer like this.
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,405
    Likes Received:
    31,499
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Parkes sitting on 25ºC with a 20 knot E/NE'ly.
    Looking ominous.

    Airport looking West peeking under that band.
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,405
    Likes Received:
    31,499
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,405
    Likes Received:
    31,499
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,405
    Likes Received:
    31,499
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Left mover to NW of Gunning.
    Looking intense.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.