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Discussion in 'Systems & Severe' started by AshestoAshes, Oct 20, 2020.
@POW_hungry Your thoughts for Sydney this afternoon/tonight?
A TS for Sydney is not out of the question, but I think it'd have to be a rogue cell late afternoon if we're to see any action.
I don't think it'll eventuate though.
BOM highlighting Crookwell - Taralga as well.
As a Qlder not familiar with typical Sydney conditions I will say the moisture delivery early tomorrow morning looks quite spectacular with potential for dangerous flash flooding? Low pressure to NW, winds backing with height and near saturated atmosphere through low to mids the usual conditions for a serious flood event in SEQ. Mitigating factor being the worst conditions seem to move off the coast at a reasonable rate.
Ec 4am 950hp:
Yep lock in Saturday AM for Sydney, for sure.
20-30mm/hour rates for Sydney tomorrow AM are possible IMO.
Lefties for the Gong escarpment.
Absolutely spectacular looking NSW sat pic atm.
Everything looks primed.
The NW horizon darkens once again
I will be attending an auction at 9:45am. Hoping some of the competition gets caught out!
Parkes down from 22C to 14C in the last hour.
16mm in 30 mins
And there's some pretty cold temps under these storms.
Griffith down to 13 after being almost 28, 90 mins ago.
Tomorrow’s forecast max and rainfall:
Newcastle: 27°, 2-6 mm
Gosford. : 25°, 15-30 mm
Sydney : 22°, 30-60 mm
Wollongong: 21°, 30-60 mm
Falls are higher further South.
There’s a Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall for a chunk of SE NSW, from the Illawarra to Narooma and inland to Yass and the ACT.
It looks like the centre of the low tracks over Sydney or a little to the North. I’m hoping that it veers further South.
That'll single-handily throw any precip prog out the window for the Sydney region.
Do we need to be concerned that the fairly cool temps will inhibit decent storms? I.e. is this more of a thundery rain event?
No The TT values are high
The beauty of an upper level low... all the 'cool' air at the surface becomes 'relatively warm' (when you compare to upper level airmass) and incredibly buoyant with a warm/moist feed.
In this case it's all out of the NW - warm and moist as per @Michael Hauber 's post.
GFS for Sydney @7am, look at that steep lapse rate!
Yep. Thats a SWEAT combo of real beauty .925 ish hPa advection could drop us some surprises though.
An inch of PWAT.
That'd do more than fill ya dog bowl.
Just emptied. Will let you know tomorrow morn.
Should we put some stilts under the cars and house?
Composite doppler radar 17:50-18:20hrs
Received a 57 mm/hr precip rate 3 hrs ago here, with the total at 41.1 mm; managed temps as low as 11.0° C and a max RH of 95%.
This turned into rumbling good rain on already wet ground. When the sun comes out the paddock bugs are gonna be very happy. Jindy North Shore. Ground water recovering nicely from summers parched earth.
Whats the likelyhood of large hail with this? might need to move my car undercover for the night.
That Skew-T looks like it's straight from Darwin . Sky looking very unstable this arvo though, weirdly i noticed that yesterday morning we had an 'ECL sky'. I think fair shout for hail maybe pea sized though i'm not that great at Skew-T.
We had hail this arvo. And enough lightening to scare the dog. Normally Berridale is in a rain shadow but this year... we have puddles of water and lawn you sink into when you walk on it. And weeds, so many weeds.
As is the chance with any upper level low, hail is possible.
FL ~3000m tomorrow AM, so small hail is possible.
The mitigating factor on large stones is the relatively saturated mid-levels. So as @AshestoAshes suggests only small hail will possibly be observed.
There is however significant CAPE, so i wouldn't rule out some moderately larger, isolated hail particularly for the BMs.
Is this predominantly a morning thing with a clearing afternoon? Can’t say I’ve ever seen hail in the AM outside of the odd cold winter day/pea hail scenario
Sorry, just had to edit post above, I misinterpreted FL for tomorrow AM.
Blue Mountains should see some hail.
Short and sharp, largely done by 8am for Sydney.
Although isolated, the risk is still there for TS activity throughout the day and into the arvo.
Rain band has jumped the GDR and bearing down on Sydney.
Out of the N/NW.
Won't be much until after midnight IMO.
OK you win most weeds. Makes mine look under control.
Back on topic, it is now warmer here than it was at 5.20pm when we had hail.
I’ll keep you posted. Thanks Pow
Looking at the fast NW’ly stream on the radar, I am not convinced we’ll see the upper scale of the 40-60mm quoted.
No thunder or lightning here at Umina beach yet.
EC over cooked that inbound and shunted it South. Sydney will be skunked here.
SouthCoast will take it all.
Sydney will be lucky to see 10mm out of this now, today.
Strange thing is BoM still going for 30-60mm today for Sydney, on the 5am update this morning.
When I got up a little while ago it was overcast and windy but I was surprised to see that nothing much has happened. There hasn’t even been any rain here, while falls across Sydney are mostly a couple of millimetres.
There are showers about, including what looks like an intense storm cell off the Central Coast.
We’ll see what develops.
EDIT: a lightning-active cell has popped up off Sydney’s Northern Beaches, heading South.
Yeah i was very surprised to see that. I don't see us getting much at all out west.