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Eastern Australia Low Pressure Troughs 22 Oct-31 Oct

Discussion in 'Systems & Severe' started by AshestoAshes, Oct 20, 2020.

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  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  2. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    @POW_hungry Your thoughts for Sydney this afternoon/tonight?
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A TS for Sydney is not out of the question, but I think it'd have to be a rogue cell late afternoon if we're to see any action.
    I don't think it'll eventuate though.
     
  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC 18Z
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM highlighting Crookwell - Taralga as well.
     
  6. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    As a Qlder not familiar with typical Sydney conditions I will say the moisture delivery early tomorrow morning looks quite spectacular with potential for dangerous flash flooding? Low pressure to NW, winds backing with height and near saturated atmosphere through low to mids the usual conditions for a serious flood event in SEQ. Mitigating factor being the worst conditions seem to move off the coast at a reasonable rate.

    Ec 4am 950hp:

     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep lock in Saturday AM for Sydney, for sure.
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    THIS. ^^
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    20-30mm/hour rates for Sydney tomorrow AM are possible IMO.
     
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  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Lefties for the Gong escarpment.
     
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  11. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Absolutely spectacular looking NSW sat pic atm.
    Everything looks primed.
     
  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  13. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    The NW horizon darkens once again
     
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  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Parkes underseige.
    8mm/10 mins
     
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  16. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    I will be attending an auction at 9:45am. Hoping some of the competition gets caught out!
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Parkes down from 22C to 14C in the last hour.
    16mm in 30 mins
     
  18. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    And there's some pretty cold temps under these storms.
    Griffith down to 13 after being almost 28, 90 mins ago.
     
  19. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    Location:
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    Tomorrow’s forecast max and rainfall:

    Newcastle: 27°, 2-6 mm
    Gosford. : 25°, 15-30 mm
    Sydney : 22°, 30-60 mm
    Wollongong: 21°, 30-60 mm

    Falls are higher further South.

    There’s a Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall for a chunk of SE NSW, from the Illawarra to Narooma and inland to Yass and the ACT.

    It looks like the centre of the low tracks over Sydney or a little to the North. I’m hoping that it veers further South.
     
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  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That'll single-handily throw any precip prog out the window for the Sydney region.
     
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  22. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Do we need to be concerned that the fairly cool temps will inhibit decent storms? I.e. is this more of a thundery rain event?
     
  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    No The TT values are high
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The beauty of an upper level low... all the 'cool' air at the surface becomes 'relatively warm' (when you compare to upper level airmass) and incredibly buoyant with a warm/moist feed.
    In this case it's all out of the NW - warm and moist as per @Michael Hauber 's post.

    GFS for Sydney @7am, look at that steep lapse rate!
    Stacked.
     
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  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Yep. Thats a SWEAT combo of real beauty .925 ish hPa advection could drop us some surprises though.
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    An inch of PWAT.
    That'd do more than fill ya dog bowl.
     
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  27. Undies

    Undies Pizza!

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    Just emptied. Will let you know tomorrow morn.
     
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  28. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    Should we put some stilts under the cars and house?
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Himawari 16-18:00hrs:

    Composite doppler radar 17:50-18:20hrs
     
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  30. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    Received a 57 mm/hr precip rate 3 hrs ago here, with the total at 41.1 mm; managed temps as low as 11.0° C and a max RH of 95%.
     
  31. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    This turned into rumbling good rain on already wet ground. When the sun comes out the paddock bugs are gonna be very happy. Jindy North Shore. Ground water recovering nicely from summers parched earth.

     
  32. Sideny

    Sideny Addicted

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    Whats the likelyhood of large hail with this? might need to move my car undercover for the night.
     
  33. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes One of Us

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    That Skew-T looks like it's straight from Darwin :). Sky looking very unstable this arvo though, weirdly i noticed that yesterday morning we had an 'ECL sky'. I think fair shout for hail maybe pea sized though i'm not that great at Skew-T.
     
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  34. skichanger

    skichanger A Local

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    We had hail this arvo. And enough lightening to scare the dog. Normally Berridale is in a rain shadow but this year... we have puddles of water and lawn you sink into when you walk on it. And weeds, so many weeds.
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As is the chance with any upper level low, hail is possible.
    FL ~3000m tomorrow AM, so small hail is possible.
    The mitigating factor on large stones is the relatively saturated mid-levels. So as @AshestoAshes suggests only small hail will possibly be observed.
    There is however significant CAPE, so i wouldn't rule out some moderately larger, isolated hail particularly for the BMs.
     
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  36. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Is this predominantly a morning thing with a clearing afternoon? Can’t say I’ve ever seen hail in the AM outside of the odd cold winter day/pea hail scenario
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry, just had to edit post above, I misinterpreted FL for tomorrow AM.
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Blue Mountains should see some hail.
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Short and sharp, largely done by 8am for Sydney.
    Although isolated, the risk is still there for TS activity throughout the day and into the arvo.
     
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  40. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rain band has jumped the GDR and bearing down on Sydney.
    Out of the N/NW.
    Won't be much until after midnight IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  42. skichanger

    skichanger A Local

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    OK you win most weeds. Makes mine look under control.

    Back on topic, it is now warmer here than it was at 5.20pm when we had hail.
     
  43. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    I’ll keep you posted. Thanks Pow
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking at the fast NW’ly stream on the radar, I am not convinced we’ll see the upper scale of the 40-60mm quoted.
    Doubtful.
     
  45. Ben K

    Ben K Hard Yards

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    No thunder or lightning here at Umina beach yet.
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC over cooked that inbound and shunted it South. Sydney will be skunked here.
    SouthCoast will take it all.
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sydney will be lucky to see 10mm out of this now, today.
     
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Strange thing is BoM still going for 30-60mm today for Sydney, on the 5am update this morning.
     
  49. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    When I got up a little while ago it was overcast and windy but I was surprised to see that nothing much has happened. There hasn’t even been any rain here, while falls across Sydney are mostly a couple of millimetres.

    There are showers about, including what looks like an intense storm cell off the Central Coast.

    We’ll see what develops.

    EDIT: a lightning-active cell has popped up off Sydney’s Northern Beaches, heading South.
     
  50. Longys

    Longys Hard Yards

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    Yeah i was very surprised to see that. I don't see us getting much at all out west.
     
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