Eastern Seaboard Rain Event 10-13th October

Discussion in 'Eastern & Marine' started by POW_hungry, Oct 6, 2019.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models in good agreement of a widespread, yet short lived, rain event for the Eastern Seaboard; affecting Eastern Vic to SE QLD Thursday to Saturday, respectively.
    It's an unique system with a upper level trough forged over the GDR and fed by low level moist onshore flow.
    Atmosphere is stacked thanks to the warm SST's in the Tasman and moisture transport out of the Southern Ocean.
    Coastal NSW looks to do quite well out of it, but there does look to be some convective stuff penetrating the GDR by Friday night.
    Snow down to ~1100m on Friday arvo for Eastern Vic, Southern NSW/ACT.

    Friday 11pm:
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
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  2. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    The BOM have ramped rainfall totals up slightly again this afternoon.
    From experience, when they start doing this at this time frame, it is more than likely that they will do it again as the event closes in. Could it be a 25-50 mm event, or could it ramp up to 50-100 mm's or maybe more?
    Time will tell.
     
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  3. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bring it!!
    I drove through Bemboka on Friday, been a long time since I've been down that valley, couldn't believe how brown it was. Local rivers barely flowing!
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00z puts totals of 60-80mm in the Sydney/Illawarra Basins. Big up tick on EC this arvo.
     
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  5. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Above are the latest probabilities of total rainfall within the next 8 days exceeding 25mm (using all members of the US Navy ensemble and the past 6 runs of the GFS).
    The higher probabilities of the better rainfall haven't budged much with the main focus along the central southern NSW coast and mid north coast.
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Ensembles shakes hands with Navy Ensembles.
     
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  7. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    I am hoping this forecast holds
     
  8. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    Cool, really does like an "Eastern Seaboard" event. I'm surprised by the extent of the predicted heavy falls. Let's hope it goes far enough inland to impact those severely drought affect areas on the Darling Downs and Northern Tablelands.
     
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  9. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    It would be great if that happened but I think it'll mainly be the far eastern parts of the Downs and Northern Tablelands that have the possibility of getting any reasonable rainfall amounts (out of those two regions) and even then, the totals may not be too high. Would be welcome though and better than nothing.
     
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  10. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'd still prefer the high pressure cradle/slow moving trough but this'll have to do. Hope to get lucky Fri night/Sat before the low quickly pushes out to sea leaving dry southerlies in its wake.
     
  11. stormy3

    stormy3 Early Days

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    I dont get excited over these systems now as many have failed,but there is always one that dont.bring it on,a shame it wont be going inland,if it does come off.
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, the GDR won't do many favours for those >50-100 kms from the coast, largely because of the catalytic low-level component.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  14. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’m currently at Wonboyn. We could seriously do with some rain. Dad said the local fire captain sent something around saying that the land needs about 300mm to get it to a point that it’s back to regular fire danger.
     
  15. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    Port Macquarie really needs a decent soaking.
     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As does Kiama & Geroa.
     
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  17. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    And Jindabyne to Bega
     
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  18. Steve777

    Steve777 Addicted

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    We've had a few recent rain events with some widespread small falls, but they have mostly focused on the coastal strip from around Forster to Jervis Bay, with some falls extending into the Central and Southern Tablelands. The far North Coast, the far South Coast and pretty much anywhere West of the ranges is still very dry.

    The usual suspects on the central part of the coast get hit again, but this time it looks like the North and South coasts get a look in. However, once again, there's not much West of the Divide.
     
  19. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes Early Days

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    The synoptics seems to be an easterly trough that'll be sitting a little bit west or on the GDR. It moving more westward can be a game changer imo. Honestly I'll be waiting for Access-R to be coming in.
     
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  20. Stumer1

    Stumer1 Hard Yards

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    That low near NZ could cause a few issues.
     
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its Bathurst weekend

    of course its going to be inclement
     
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  22. stormy3

    stormy3 Early Days

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    I dont think Bathurst will see much,Donzah,unless there is a storm from the West.
     
  23. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    It's hard to look at this multimodel accumulating rainfall graph for Brisbane and not think that most people in Brisbane will probably get at least some rainfall later on Friday or on Saturday, even if it isn't drought breaking and some people may get less than others.
     
  24. Slovenski

    Slovenski Addicted

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    Be smiles & beer if this comes off.
     
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  25. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might be a drop for the Sydney catchments, too. Although we don’t need it as bad as most.
     
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  26. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Steady rain at Wonboyn. Much needed and appreciated.
     
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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking a little less of an event for Eastern Vic and Southern NSW now with a less-bullish trend of cold air, up the East Coast on EC. Focus has shifted to Northern NSW & SE QLD witha coastal trough forming on Saturday arvo between Fraser & Moreton Islands.
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Northern NSW fires will need this.
     
  29. Tweekin

    Tweekin One of Us

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    Be some very happy people if that comes off
     
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  30. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Copy and paste from my post on another thread due to the relevance for the relatively broad area.

    1st and 2nd maps - The lowest and highest rainfall scenario from the 51 member ensemble for accumulated rainfall amounts between now and 1am Sunday (before which the bulk of the rainfall will probably have eased).
    3rd map - Probabilities of accumulated rainfall exceeding 10mm between now and 1am Sunday.
     
  31. Timbuck

    Timbuck Hard Yards

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    First rain here on the Gold Coast. Let hope everyone gets a good drop in the next few days.
     
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  32. Bone Dry

    Bone Dry Hard Yards

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    Looks like The Pie (Gympie) is about to get a touch up.
     
  33. Bone Dry

    Bone Dry Hard Yards

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    Well, according to the Gympie Radar it's raining here.

    Having deployed my latest meteorological analysis tool, vis-a-vis putting on my new Crocs and standing outside, I can absolutely confirm.......it's not raining. Don't know what they done to that radar a while back, but it's crap now. I only hope it's working better for somebody else.
     
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  34. stormy3

    stormy3 Early Days

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    A few showers moving up the coast from the se,some moving inland a bit as well.
     
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  35. Steve777

    Steve777 Addicted

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    The chance of a thunderstorm has been added to the Sydney forecast.

    It's been a fairly sunny morning so far, although it;s closing in now. There's a lot of cloud to the South and East.

    There is a cell just off Port Hacking which has lightning and what looks like heavy rain. It's been there a while, hardly moving. Cronulla Bowling Club on the North of Port Hacking has picked up 12 mm in the last couple of hours.

    Mona Vale had 12 mm overnight, maybe from another near-stationary cell. I heard some rain around 3:00 AM. Chatswood nearby picked up 4 mm. Other sites around Sydney, mainly East, picked up a few mm overnight.

    There are other cells out to sea off Sydney now, again hardly moving. If one of these cells happens to form or move over you, you might get a good total.
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    We got some flash/bang last night here in Bondi. And a little micro burst. I am guessing 8-10mm out of it.

    Just came back from a surf and saw towers building from the darkness. Clear over land, however.
    A few flashes out to see.
    It's coming, just waiting for the onshore to push 'em ashore.
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like that slow-crawler cell over Kurnell would be twitching a few pilots on take off for the SYD rush hour.
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    OCF with some positive signs to see some reasonable falls further inland from the trough in SE QLD/Northern NSW (won't update).
     
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  39. Bone Dry

    Bone Dry Hard Yards

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    Well here we are on the big day and I have to say the outlook for WBB is looking ........ bland.

    "Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers inland, medium chance elsewhere. Showers tending to patchy rain in the late evening. The chance of a thunderstorm."

    Obviously we'll see what happens and hopefully those inland get some decent numbers, however, I can only hope that whoever wrote the forecast has gotten it wildly wrong especially for those living in a more easterly location.
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here comes the inland moisture injection, this is all associated with that slow-moving trough band.
     
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  41. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Some small, heavy showers developing quickly over parts of inland Sydney metro now.
     
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  42. connells

    connells Hard Yards

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    Hail in North Sydney apparently.
     
  43. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Hearing audible thunder now - probably from the Blacktown cell.
     
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  44. Fozzie Bear

    Fozzie Bear One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hasn't made it up the hill to the Junction.
     
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  45. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mizzel at 6am in jindy. Lovely gentle rain on the way to Canberra. Mum was happy.
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good chance of hail all day in Sydney area. Uppers are cold as ice. FL ~2000m
     
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  47. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Yeh. Some was just reported (on the radio) on the M2 near Sunnyholt Rd.
     
  48. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    I made the mistake of searching 'sydney hail' on twitter, hoping to find some shots from North Sydney.

    Turns out Sydney Hail is a porn star so, yeah, NSFW!
     
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  49. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Haha Trail Blazer, begs the question, did your search then end up following those links rather than resuming looking for hail photos.
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sydney radar coming to life now.
     
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