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end of good news for NZ? (Aug

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by stelsegood, Jul 21, 2006.

  1. stelsegood

    stelsegood First Runs

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    Well we are about to say goodbye to a 'polar blast' (which so far seems over-rated for Palmy) and hello to tropical rain [​IMG]

    Aus is getting pretty excited for cold weather at the end of July / start of Aug. While that's happening i think we (NZ) can expect Brisbane's rain to have drifted south east and to be sitting right over us. Will this be just a minor inconvenience or a major Aug setback? [​IMG]

    Thanks to some people plugging/posting from "www.weatherzone.com" [​IMG]

    Or, if we look forward to about Aug 2 can we expect the rain to turn to snow - leaving no trace of the problem?
     
    #1 stelsegood, Jul 21, 2006
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  2. madskierNZ

    madskierNZ First Runs

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    I guess it all comes down to the track the low takes,

    If it remains "high" ie above Taupo, the chance of rain increases, if it skirts lower, ie across Palmy or Wellington the chance of snow goes up ( along with all the comments form the locals bit*hing about the weather:),

    That said I think Ruapehu could weather a few days of rain with the current base,

    On the bright side, one advantage might be that it saturates the snow pack before a southerly to make a nice big block of ice that helps extend the season well into late spring [​IMG]
     
    #2 madskierNZ, Jul 21, 2006
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  3. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    Its only a matter of time before the pattern turns ie Oz gets snow and NZ gets the rain and blocking highs. Oz should at least get a couple of decent dumps in August.
     
  4. Dr Ken Moy

    Dr Ken Moy First Runs

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    Could this finish there season?
     
  5. Willoughby

    Willoughby First Runs

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    Short answer: No.

    With a low developing in the northern Tasman soon, it will track SE onto NZ.. with a change to cold southwesterlies.
    Good to see a big change in the climate developing.. WA getting shafted by the wet westerlies finally by the looks.. just that we are going to soon be losing our 'La Nina' characteristics.. so expect snow to increase on the skifields exposed to the Westerly
     
    #5 Willoughby, Jul 21, 2006
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  6. tot

    tot Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    whats with the basic 1 liners from "Dr Ken" ??
     
  7. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

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    Dr Ken likes monkeying around.
     
  8. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    it's a pithy puerility...much like Forrest Gump
     
    #8 MisterMxyzptlk, Jul 21, 2006
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  9. tot

    tot Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    i get the picture now [​IMG]
     
    #9 tot, Jul 21, 2006
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  10. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stelse..I actually think looking at the series of lead up charts that this just looks like more snow for Hutt and maybe touch and go for the Southern Lakes.
     
  11. stelsegood

    stelsegood First Runs

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    Yes, i may have panicked way too early. Charts now look more like the same-old same-old with the low trapping some cold air and hitting mid NZ and of course, as it passes over things should get even colder for some top ups for the east-coast resorts.
     
  12. Parko

    Parko First Runs

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    Any new updates for this system - particularly for the Queenstown resorts? Frog's site is a few days behind for the NZ forecast and I'm getting too anxious to wait for the 1st of August to make it into the metservice 5 day outlook :p
     
  13. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    another 10-20cms 31stJuly- 2nd August depending on resort height.
     
  14. Toto Warmlet

    Toto Warmlet One of Us

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    all this good weather is so midweek
     
  15. davio

    davio First Runs

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    anyone got any idea about the forecast from 6th Aug onwards around Cantebury area?
     
  16. Old Navy

    Old Navy First Runs

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    Freezing levels seem to be lowering in the forecasts for the next couple of days, have steadily come down from 1800 to 1200. There is a good dolop of wet stuff coming NZ's way and the more westerly fields may see a good fall (hopefully Temple Basin will overcome their 'technical difficulties' soon to enjoy it).

    A heavy rain warning is current for the Canterbury High Country tomorrow and hopefully we will see the freezing levels staying at 1200

     
    #16 Old Navy, Jul 29, 2006
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  17. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

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    Looking pretty good for later in the week.

    Mon Jul 31 Issued at 6:38 am 31 Jul 2006 NZST
    Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms about the Alps, falling as snow above 1500 metres. Fine elsewhere, apart from isolated showers this morning.
    Wind at 1000m: Northwest 50 km/h.
    Wind at 2000m: Northwest 70 km/h.
    Free air freezing Level: About 1700 metres.
    Tue Aug 1 Issued at 6:38 am 31 Jul 2006 NZST
    Fine apart from early morning showers about the Alps.
    Wind at 1000m: Northwest dying away.
    Wind at 2000m: Northwest 50 km/h tending light northerly.
    Free air freezing Level: About 1800 metres.
    Wed Aug 2 Issued at 1:21 pm 30 Jul 2006 NZST
    High cloud thickening, and rain developing about the Alps, falling as snow above 1500 metres. Northerlies.
    Thu Aug 3 Issued at 1:21 pm 30 Jul 2006 NZST
    Cloudy with rain at times, with snow lowering to 1100 metres. Cold southeasterlies freshening.
    Fri Aug 4 Issued at 1:21 pm 30 Jul 2006 NZST
    Showers, falling as snow above 900 metres, gradually clearing. Cold southeasterlies easing.
     
  18. Bunyip007

    Bunyip007 First Runs

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    How about the N.I rain ? do you think Mt R will get much out of this front ?
     
  19. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    was certainly marginal at the Southern lakes resort bases yesterday..mix wet snow and rain
     
  20. madskierNZ

    madskierNZ First Runs

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    I think NI will do OK, classic pattern of Ntherly swinging throught the west to the south,

    I think whakapapa shoudl get 20-30CM+ less for Turoa, but no real worries about this rain.
     
  21. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

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    Looks like this weekend should be great up at Ruapehu.

    Wed Aug 2 Issued at 6:47 am 2 Aug 2006 NZST
    Often cloudy, with some showers. Snow above 1800 metres.
    Wind at 1500 metres: Northwest 45 km/h.
    Wind at 3000 metres: Northwest 55 km/h.
    Freezing Level: About 2200 metres, lowering to 2000 metres in the evening.
    Thu Aug 3 Issued at 12:42 pm 1 Aug 2006 NZST
    Showers, some heavy, becoming less frequent towards evening. Snow lowering to 1500 metres. Winds tending westerly and easing at all levels.
    Freezing level lowering to 1800 metres.
    Fri Aug 4 Issued at 12:42 pm 1 Aug 2006 NZST
    Showers, with snow above 1400 metres, clearing and becoming fine. South or southeast winds at low levels becoming light. Southwesterlies about the tops easing further.
    Freezing level lowering to 1600 metres.
    Sat Aug 5 Issued at 12:42 pm 1 Aug 2006 NZST
    Fine weather. Light winds at low levels, southwest breezes about the tops.
    Freezing level 1600 metres.
    Sun Aug 6 Issued at 12:42 pm 1 Aug 2006 NZST
    Fine weather. Light winds at low levels, southwest breezes about the tops.
     
  22. Old Navy

    Old Navy First Runs

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    Currently snowing to about 50m above the height of the village in Arthur's Pass - say around 800m or so. Snow settling on the trees about another 100m above that
     
  23. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

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    Old Navy.

    How heavy is the precipitation? Canterbury way is very light.
     
  24. stelsegood

    stelsegood First Runs

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    Interesting... because the BR cam seems to show that it is raining there (wet with no snow on the table).

    The usual for Mt Ruapehu: will struggle to get accumulation at the base/carpark; wont suffer too much mid field; nice top up for the T-Bars.

    We seem to be in a warm phase at the moment. On the north island, below about 1500m the rain is washing all the snow away.
     
  25. davio

    davio First Runs

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    whats Craigieburn and BR looking like for the weekend and next week?
     
  26. Toto Warmlet

    Toto Warmlet One of Us

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    A 2 day sunny weekend at Ruapehu, time now to brave the crowds? Hard to resist.Some years we've not had such a weekend all season.
     
  27. madskierNZ

    madskierNZ First Runs

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    The models for Sunday/Monday for Ruapehu are beginning to look really scary, the amounts of moisture could be huge and it might be cold enough for it to snow off both the approach and departure of the LP system,

    Anyone else got thought?
     
  28. stelsegood

    stelsegood First Runs

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    Yep - late weekend / early next week is looking pretty scary - maybe a super dump above 1800m but unlikely for a dump down low.

    I guess the main interest is with where the low will end up and how fast it will move east after it passes over us. Tues/Wed next week could see low level snow to either/both Nth and Sth Island coasts.

    DOC (metservice) say Tongariro will be fine on monday - could be a disaster for some hikers!

     
    #28 stelsegood, Aug 3, 2006
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  29. Toto Warmlet

    Toto Warmlet One of Us

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    Cola now sure puts some rain on my Sunday. Metservice thinks it's coming a day later, looks like "touch and go " again!
     
  30. madskierNZ

    madskierNZ First Runs

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    From Today's Metservice SWO, looks they they are picking it to go high across Northland and then down the east coast, will be interesting to watch where this finally does track, could be a good one

    [​IMG]
     
    #30 madskierNZ, Aug 3, 2006
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  31. stelsegood

    stelsegood First Runs

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    Yep - and look at their last line:

     
    #31 stelsegood, Aug 3, 2006
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  32. Old Navy

    Old Navy First Runs

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    BR is awesome at the moment and I can only imagine that Craigeburn would be the same. 10 people at BR yesterday and lots of fresh.

    A very turbulent beginning to next week by the looks of it. It is interesting to see that the metservice forecasts do not seem to agree with what looks like a good dolop of wet/white stuff over Sunday - Wednesday.

    The snow here the other day here was quite interesting. Was almost 4 degrees and came down very heavily for about an hour. Was coming from the Nth West so doubt anything would have made it through much further than the Pass here. Nothing settled at this level.

    Temple Basin is re-opening this weekend and if you stay there on Saturday or Sunday nights you will get a free day skiing on the Sunday
     
    #32 Old Navy, Aug 4, 2006
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  33. madskierNZ

    madskierNZ First Runs

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    Some one at metservice seems to have finally pushed the refresh button on their screen

    Strap in for a bumpy ride

    Now for Ruapehu they are forecasting this
     
    #33 madskierNZ, Aug 4, 2006
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  34. stelsegood

    stelsegood First Runs

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    Yes at last MetService realises that we are in for a hammering.

    I dont think we'll get snow as the Low approaches - and in fact, maybe rain at +2000m!! But the good news is that as usual we should get snow as the Low leaves next Mon and Tue. For the Cant high country:

    Then light winds and snow showers next weekend.
     
    #34 stelsegood, Aug 4, 2006
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  35. Bunyip007

    Bunyip007 First Runs

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    Looks like MT R may get rain and not much snow out of this system.
     
  36. sadcase

    sadcase First Runs

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    What impact will this have on the south island? In particular the mountains accessible from Queenstown.
     
  37. stelsegood

    stelsegood First Runs

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    I haven't really been following the forecasts for the Q-town resorts but i guess that this system wont really effect them. They are more likely to get hit by the fronts which start from the NW and turn SW. This will be a low crossing the north island which will bring heaps of rain to some parts of the north island and hopefully some snow from the SE on Mon-Tues.
     
  38. Bunyip007

    Bunyip007 First Runs

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    Lets just hope the snow on Tues will replace what is lost on Sunday Monday . At Mt R
     
  39. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

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    Met service Cantebury mountain forecast has been continuously dropping the snow level for Tuesday. Orginally was snow down to 800m. They are now forcasting down to 200m!

    Is also looking pretty good for Mt R as well.

     
    #39 Telestrom, Aug 7, 2006
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  40. madskierNZ

    madskierNZ First Runs

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    Yeah, looks Ruapehu will come out better than I had thought after the drowning it got yesterday,

    There is still a fair bit of moisture around and a falling freezing level to 2000m and rain should mean a good dump for most of both fields,the 1200 m freeze for tomorrow should top up the base areas too [​IMG]
     
    #40 madskierNZ, Aug 7, 2006
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  41. stelsegood

    stelsegood First Runs

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    In my opinion the low freeze levels in the south are not what we want as it is looking like the air is getting dry pretty quickly. I'd vote for a dump at 1200m over flurries to 200m. Still, beggers cant be choosers.
     
  42. James B

    James B One of Us

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    Still snowing hard in Canterbury.

    Does this win the prize for the most inaccurately titled thread of the year?
     
  43. Aunty Jack

    Aunty Jack First Runs

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    don't jinx it!
    the Snow Gods love proving us wrong!
    (and we dont mind [​IMG] )
     
    #43 Aunty Jack, Aug 7, 2006
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  44. xpat

    xpat First Runs

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    and hutt hits 2m
     
  45. stelsegood

    stelsegood First Runs

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    ok ok ok - but James, my thread was about the START of Aug (just didn't get round to putting the dates in [​IMG] ).

    I will be at BR next week so i am happy to hear that the snow is falling.

    Cold and wet in Palmy today - should be some snow on the Ruahines and Tararuas - just in time for my first attempt at snow-camping on the weekend.
     
    #45 stelsegood, Aug 8, 2006
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  46. Toto Warmlet

    Toto Warmlet One of Us

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    50 cm new snow on the Manganui T, still snowing, shut as avalanche risk high..what a season!
     
  47. Top Rock

    Top Rock Hard Yards

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    yea it seems like its all over for nz.......

    35cms fresh....

    The towers looking just so so

    [​IMG]
     
    #47 Top Rock, Aug 9, 2006
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  48. madskierNZ

    madskierNZ First Runs

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    Looks like time to rug up again, Metservice and other models are pointing to a rather chilly weekend, not sure we will get a lot of snow out of it, but if it falls it will fall where ever it want to as the 540line seems to be anchored over Auckland [​IMG] - make that somewhere past cape reinga

    Edit: Not sure I have ever seen a SWO like this, It only has snow warnings on it [​IMG]

     
    #48 madskierNZ, Aug 9, 2006
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  49. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    madskier...10-15cm avg top up for the Southern Lakes over the w/e

    ...and I think NZ will do better from the system earmarked for OZ 15/16th next week....probably snow to very low levels from the 17th/18th (which is good as I'll be on my annual skifari and probably on Ohau Friday or saturday [​IMG] )
     
    #49 MisterMxyzptlk, Aug 9, 2006
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  50. Old Navy

    Old Navy First Runs

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    Has just started snowing in Arthur's Pass from the northwest. Chains are already required through the Pass itself. Looks as though it is set to continue. Fingers crossed Temple Basin will see a foot of snow from this one by Monday afternoon.

    So many powder days already and we're only coming up on mid-august.