end of good news for NZ? (Aug

stelsegood

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Jun 25, 2002
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Well we are about to say goodbye to a 'polar blast' (which so far seems over-rated for Palmy) and hello to tropical rain
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Aus is getting pretty excited for cold weather at the end of July / start of Aug. While that's happening i think we (NZ) can expect Brisbane's rain to have drifted south east and to be sitting right over us. Will this be just a minor inconvenience or a major Aug setback?
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Thanks to some people plugging/posting from "www.weatherzone.com"
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Or, if we look forward to about Aug 2 can we expect the rain to turn to snow - leaving no trace of the problem?
 
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madskierNZ

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Jul 3, 2003
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I guess it all comes down to the track the low takes,

If it remains "high" ie above Taupo, the chance of rain increases, if it skirts lower, ie across Palmy or Wellington the chance of snow goes up ( along with all the comments form the locals bit*hing about the weather:),

That said I think Ruapehu could weather a few days of rain with the current base,

On the bright side, one advantage might be that it saturates the snow pack before a southerly to make a nice big block of ice that helps extend the season well into late spring
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Squidly

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Jun 4, 2004
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Its only a matter of time before the pattern turns ie Oz gets snow and NZ gets the rain and blocking highs. Oz should at least get a couple of decent dumps in August.
 

Willoughby

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Jul 6, 2006
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Could this finish there season?
Short answer: No.

With a low developing in the northern Tasman soon, it will track SE onto NZ.. with a change to cold southwesterlies.
Good to see a big change in the climate developing.. WA getting shafted by the wet westerlies finally by the looks.. just that we are going to soon be losing our 'La Nina' characteristics.. so expect snow to increase on the skifields exposed to the Westerly
 
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MisterMxyzptlk

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Mar 12, 2002
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Stelse..I actually think looking at the series of lead up charts that this just looks like more snow for Hutt and maybe touch and go for the Southern Lakes.
 

stelsegood

First Runs
Jun 25, 2002
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Palmerston Nth, NZ
Yes, i may have panicked way too early. Charts now look more like the same-old same-old with the low trapping some cold air and hitting mid NZ and of course, as it passes over things should get even colder for some top ups for the east-coast resorts.
 

Parko

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May 9, 2006
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Any new updates for this system - particularly for the Queenstown resorts? Frog's site is a few days behind for the NZ forecast and I'm getting too anxious to wait for the 1st of August to make it into the metservice 5 day outlook :p
 

Old Navy

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Jun 24, 2004
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Freezing levels seem to be lowering in the forecasts for the next couple of days, have steadily come down from 1800 to 1200. There is a good dolop of wet stuff coming NZ's way and the more westerly fields may see a good fall (hopefully Temple Basin will overcome their 'technical difficulties' soon to enjoy it).

A heavy rain warning is current for the Canterbury High Country tomorrow and hopefully we will see the freezing levels staying at 1200

HEAVY RAIN WARNING
THE HEADWATERS OF THE OTAGO AND CANTERBURY LAKES AND RIVERS BETWEEN LAKE WA KATIPU AND THE WAIMAKARIRI RIVER: Rain is expected to become heavy during Sunday morning. In the 8 hours from about 9am Sunday, expect around 100mm on the Divid e, with 50mm within 15km east of the Divide. After this time, further heavy, thu ndery falls are likely through to about midday Monday in gale northwesterlies, w ith another 60 to 80mm possible near the Divide and up to 50mm within 15km east of the Divide.
 
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Telestrom

A Local
Jun 3, 2002
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Looking pretty good for later in the week.

Mon Jul 31 Issued at 6:38 am 31 Jul 2006 NZST
Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms about the Alps, falling as snow above 1500 metres. Fine elsewhere, apart from isolated showers this morning.
Wind at 1000m: Northwest 50 km/h.
Wind at 2000m: Northwest 70 km/h.
Free air freezing Level: About 1700 metres.
Tue Aug 1 Issued at 6:38 am 31 Jul 2006 NZST
Fine apart from early morning showers about the Alps.
Wind at 1000m: Northwest dying away.
Wind at 2000m: Northwest 50 km/h tending light northerly.
Free air freezing Level: About 1800 metres.
Wed Aug 2 Issued at 1:21 pm 30 Jul 2006 NZST
High cloud thickening, and rain developing about the Alps, falling as snow above 1500 metres. Northerlies.
Thu Aug 3 Issued at 1:21 pm 30 Jul 2006 NZST
Cloudy with rain at times, with snow lowering to 1100 metres. Cold southeasterlies freshening.
Fri Aug 4 Issued at 1:21 pm 30 Jul 2006 NZST
Showers, falling as snow above 900 metres, gradually clearing. Cold southeasterlies easing.
 

MisterMxyzptlk

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Mar 12, 2002
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was certainly marginal at the Southern lakes resort bases yesterday..mix wet snow and rain
 

madskierNZ

First Runs
Jul 3, 2003
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wellington NZ
I think NI will do OK, classic pattern of Ntherly swinging throught the west to the south,

I think whakapapa shoudl get 20-30CM+ less for Turoa, but no real worries about this rain.
 

Telestrom

A Local
Jun 3, 2002
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Looks like this weekend should be great up at Ruapehu.

Wed Aug 2 Issued at 6:47 am 2 Aug 2006 NZST
Often cloudy, with some showers. Snow above 1800 metres.
Wind at 1500 metres: Northwest 45 km/h.
Wind at 3000 metres: Northwest 55 km/h.
Freezing Level: About 2200 metres, lowering to 2000 metres in the evening.
Thu Aug 3 Issued at 12:42 pm 1 Aug 2006 NZST
Showers, some heavy, becoming less frequent towards evening. Snow lowering to 1500 metres. Winds tending westerly and easing at all levels.
Freezing level lowering to 1800 metres.
Fri Aug 4 Issued at 12:42 pm 1 Aug 2006 NZST
Showers, with snow above 1400 metres, clearing and becoming fine. South or southeast winds at low levels becoming light. Southwesterlies about the tops easing further.
Freezing level lowering to 1600 metres.
Sat Aug 5 Issued at 12:42 pm 1 Aug 2006 NZST
Fine weather. Light winds at low levels, southwest breezes about the tops.
Freezing level 1600 metres.
Sun Aug 6 Issued at 12:42 pm 1 Aug 2006 NZST
Fine weather. Light winds at low levels, southwest breezes about the tops.
 

Old Navy

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Jun 24, 2004
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Currently snowing to about 50m above the height of the village in Arthur's Pass - say around 800m or so. Snow settling on the trees about another 100m above that
 

stelsegood

First Runs
Jun 25, 2002
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Palmerston Nth, NZ
Interesting... because the BR cam seems to show that it is raining there (wet with no snow on the table).

The usual for Mt Ruapehu: will struggle to get accumulation at the base/carpark; wont suffer too much mid field; nice top up for the T-Bars.

We seem to be in a warm phase at the moment. On the north island, below about 1500m the rain is washing all the snow away.
 

Toto Warmlet

One of Us
Sep 2, 2003
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A 2 day sunny weekend at Ruapehu, time now to brave the crowds? Hard to resist.Some years we've not had such a weekend all season.
 

madskierNZ

First Runs
Jul 3, 2003
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wellington NZ
The models for Sunday/Monday for Ruapehu are beginning to look really scary, the amounts of moisture could be huge and it might be cold enough for it to snow off both the approach and departure of the LP system,

Anyone else got thought?
 

stelsegood

First Runs
Jun 25, 2002
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Palmerston Nth, NZ
Yep - late weekend / early next week is looking pretty scary - maybe a super dump above 1800m but unlikely for a dump down low.

I guess the main interest is with where the low will end up and how fast it will move east after it passes over us. Tues/Wed next week could see low level snow to either/both Nth and Sth Island coasts.

DOC (metservice) say Tongariro will be fine on monday - could be a disaster for some hikers!

Monday: Cloud thickening, but remaining dry. Southeast winds developing at all levels.
 
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Toto Warmlet

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Sep 2, 2003
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Cola now sure puts some rain on my Sunday. Metservice thinks it's coming a day later, looks like "touch and go " again!
 

madskierNZ

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Jul 3, 2003
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From Today's Metservice SWO, looks they they are picking it to go high across Northland and then down the east coast, will be interesting to watch where this finally does track, could be a good one

However, a low is expected to deepen over the north Tasman Sea during the weekend and should cross northern New Zealand early next week. A strong moist east to northeast flow to the south of the low is forecast to bring rain to northern New Zealand on Sunday and through Monday. Heavy falls are likely and there is a moderate confidence that rainfall accumulations could reach warning criteria in Northland, northern Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty. The winds are also likely to reach gale in exposed places, with a low risk of rising to severe gale for a time.

The rain and strong winds are likely to spread down over the remainder of the North Island early next week, as the low crosses the area. Warning amounts of rain and severe gales are possible for eastern areas from the Bay of Plenty and Gisborne down to Wairarapa and the eastern hills of Wellington. There is still considerable uncertainty in the track and development of this system. However, it has the potential to be a particularly nasty storm, and people in the above areas are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts.
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Old Navy

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Jun 24, 2004
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BR is awesome at the moment and I can only imagine that Craigeburn would be the same. 10 people at BR yesterday and lots of fresh.

A very turbulent beginning to next week by the looks of it. It is interesting to see that the metservice forecasts do not seem to agree with what looks like a good dolop of wet/white stuff over Sunday - Wednesday.

Sun Aug 6 : Issued at 3:51 am 4 Aug 2006 NZST Mainly fine with light winds at all levels.

Mon Aug 7 : Issued at 3:51 am 4 Aug 2006 NZST Mainly fine at first, but becoming cloudy. Some drizzle is possible. Southeast winds developing.

Tue Aug 8 : Issued at 3:51 am 4 Aug 2006 NZST Mostly cloudy, patchy drizzle possible. Southeast winds.
The snow here the other day here was quite interesting. Was almost 4 degrees and came down very heavily for about an hour. Was coming from the Nth West so doubt anything would have made it through much further than the Pass here. Nothing settled at this level.

Temple Basin is re-opening this weekend and if you stay there on Saturday or Sunday nights you will get a free day skiing on the Sunday
 
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madskierNZ

First Runs
Jul 3, 2003
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wellington NZ
Some one at metservice seems to have finally pushed the refresh button on their screen

Strap in for a bumpy ride

Now for Ruapehu they are forecasting this
Sun August 6 Issued at 10:20 am 4 Aug 2006 NZST
Cloudy, with periods of rain. Snow about the tops. Northeasterlies rising to 65 km/h.
Freezing level rising to 2500 metres.

Mon Aug 7 Issued at 10:20 am 4 Aug 2006 NZST
Showers, some heavy, with snow about the tops. Poor visibility at times. Northerly gales slowly easing.
Freezing level 2700 metres.

Tue Aug 8 Issued at 10:20 am 4 Aug 2006 NZST
Further showers, some heavy, with snow lowering to 1500 metres. Fresh northwesterlies changing to southeasterlies at night.
Freezing level falling to 1800 metres.
 
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stelsegood

First Runs
Jun 25, 2002
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Palmerston Nth, NZ
Yes at last MetService realises that we are in for a hammering.

I dont think we'll get snow as the Low approaches - and in fact, maybe rain at +2000m!! But the good news is that as usual we should get snow as the Low leaves next Mon and Tue. For the Cant high country:

Mon Aug 7 Issued at 10:37 am 4 Aug 2006 NZST
Overcast, with periods of rain. Snow may lower to about 800 metres in the south later. Strong to gale southeasterlies.

Tue Aug 8 Issued at 10:37 am 4 Aug 2006 NZST
Rain and snow clearing. Strong to gale southeasterlies abating later.
Then light winds and snow showers next weekend.
 
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stelsegood

First Runs
Jun 25, 2002
335
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Palmerston Nth, NZ
I haven't really been following the forecasts for the Q-town resorts but i guess that this system wont really effect them. They are more likely to get hit by the fronts which start from the NW and turn SW. This will be a low crossing the north island which will bring heaps of rain to some parts of the north island and hopefully some snow from the SE on Mon-Tues.
 

Telestrom

A Local
Jun 3, 2002
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Met service Cantebury mountain forecast has been continuously dropping the snow level for Tuesday. Orginally was snow down to 800m. They are now forcasting down to 200m!

Mon Aug 7 Issued at 11:12 am 7 Aug 2006 NZST
Overcast with periods of rain and some heavy falls, gradually turning to snow.
Wind at 1000m: Southeast, rising to 40 km/h.
Wind at 2000m: Southeast, rising to 30 km/h.
Free air freezing level: Lowering to 700 metres overnight.
Tue Aug 8 Issued at 11:12 am 7 Aug 2006 NZST
Mostly cloudy, with showers becoming isolated and some fine spells developing near the divide. Snow to about 200 or 300 metres.
Wind at 1000m: Southeast 40 km/h, easing at night.
Wind at 2000m: Southeast, rising to 45 km/h.
Free air freezing level: About 700 metres.
Wed Aug 9 Issued at 3:40 am 7 Aug 2006 NZST
Snow showers gradually clearing from the south and becoming fine. Southerlies easing.
Thu Aug 10 Issued at 3:40 am 7 Aug 2006 NZST
Fine, with frosts and light winds.
Fri Aug 11 Issued at 3:40 am 7 Aug 2006 NZST
Southwesterlies freshening with a few showers.
Is also looking pretty good for Mt R as well.

Mon Aug 7 Issued at 11:30 am 7 Aug 2006 NZST
Occasional showers, turning to rain tonight. Misty conditions. Snow above 1700 metres.
Wind at 1500 metres: Northwesterly 35 km/h, easing by evening then turning southeasterly tonight.
Wind at 3000 metres: Northwesterly 45 km/h, tending northeasterly and easing tonight.
Freezing Level: 2000 metres.
Tue Aug 8 Issued at 11:30 am 7 Aug 2006 NZST
Outbreaks of rain, with some heavy falls. Snow lowering to 800 metres by midday.
Wind at 1500 metres: Southeasterly gradually rising to 45 km/h.
Wind at 3000 metres: Northeasterly winds tending southerly.
Freezing Level: 2000 metres lowering to 1200 metres during the morning.
Wed Aug 9 Issued at 10:14 am 7 Aug 2006 NZST
Snow showers easing. Southeast winds, 40 km/h at first in exposed places, dying away later.
Freezing level about 1200 metres.
Thu Aug 10 Issued at 10:14 am 7 Aug 2006 NZST
Mainly fine with cloudy periods, but a few snow flurries possible. Winds tending southwest, 30 km/h in exposed places.
Freezing level about 1200 metres.
Fri Aug 11 Issued at 10:14 am 7 Aug 2006 NZST
Fine and cloudy periods. Southwest winds.
 
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madskierNZ

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Jul 3, 2003
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wellington NZ
Yeah, looks Ruapehu will come out better than I had thought after the drowning it got yesterday,

There is still a fair bit of moisture around and a falling freezing level to 2000m and rain should mean a good dump for most of both fields,the 1200 m freeze for tomorrow should top up the base areas too
smile.gif
 
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stelsegood

First Runs
Jun 25, 2002
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Palmerston Nth, NZ
In my opinion the low freeze levels in the south are not what we want as it is looking like the air is getting dry pretty quickly. I'd vote for a dump at 1200m over flurries to 200m. Still, beggers cant be choosers.
 

Aunty Jack

First Runs
Jul 31, 2006
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James B said:
Still snowing hard in Canterbury.

Does this win the prize for the most inaccurately titled thread of the year?
don't jinx it!
the Snow Gods love proving us wrong!
(and we dont mind
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)
 
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stelsegood

First Runs
Jun 25, 2002
335
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Palmerston Nth, NZ
ok ok ok - but James, my thread was about the START of Aug (just didn't get round to putting the dates in
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).

I will be at BR next week so i am happy to hear that the snow is falling.

Cold and wet in Palmy today - should be some snow on the Ruahines and Tararuas - just in time for my first attempt at snow-camping on the weekend.
 
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Toto Warmlet

One of Us
Sep 2, 2003
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50 cm new snow on the Manganui T, still snowing, shut as avalanche risk high..what a season!
 

Top Rock

Hard Yards
May 1, 2004
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yea it seems like its all over for nz.......

35cms fresh....

The towers looking just so so

200608090930.jpg
 
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madskierNZ

First Runs
Jul 3, 2003
318
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wellington NZ
Looks like time to rug up again, Metservice and other models are pointing to a rather chilly weekend, not sure we will get a lot of snow out of it, but if it falls it will fall where ever it want to as the 540line seems to be anchored over Auckland
smile.gif
- make that somewhere past cape reinga

Edit: Not sure I have ever seen a SWO like this, It only has snow warnings on it
laugh.gif


On Saturday, a front followed by very cold air is expected to spread northwards over the country. Snow will probably lower to sea level over the southern South Island, with a risk of heavy falls above 200 metres or so in Southland, south Otago, and the Otago Peninsula.

Snow showers are likely to fall to low levels in the east of both islands, the south of the South Island, and the central plateau. Some heavy snowfalls are possible Saturday to Sunday about Banks Peninsula, and higher parts of the central plateau.

The ranges of Wairarapa and Hawkes Bay could also receive some heavy falls, but the risk here is much lower.
 
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MisterMxyzptlk

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Mar 12, 2002
27,643
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madskier...10-15cm avg top up for the Southern Lakes over the w/e

...and I think NZ will do better from the system earmarked for OZ 15/16th next week....probably snow to very low levels from the 17th/18th (which is good as I'll be on my annual skifari and probably on Ohau Friday or saturday
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)
 
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Old Navy

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Jun 24, 2004
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Has just started snowing in Arthur's Pass from the northwest. Chains are already required through the Pass itself. Looks as though it is set to continue. Fingers crossed Temple Basin will see a foot of snow from this one by Monday afternoon.

So many powder days already and we're only coming up on mid-august.
 
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