The models and the BOM forecast are now lining up for heatwave conditions in much of SE Australia from this coming Friday January 22 and lasting up until Australia Day January 26. While not quite as intense as it looked a few days ago it will peak above anything so far this Summer. It is also fairly extended for a hot spell on the coast, with five consecutive 30+ days at Sydney OH. There will be some mid-level cloud about at times and thunderstorms are a 'slight' chance on some days.
The N-NW pattern is not that strong, so sea breezes should moderate conditions near the coast. The BOM's heatwave service rates this as a 'Severe Heatwave' for much of NSW, including Sydney. It gets an 'Extreme' rating for parts of Sourthen NSW and the ACT.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/index.shtml
A weak Southerly arrives some time on the 26th. GFS suggests around mid-afternoon. There does not seem to be much in the way of storms or rain associated with the change, but it does look like an unsettled and potentially stormy pattern to follow. The 27th still looks warm.
Here are some forecast maxima for the January 22-26
Maitland : 34, 36, 37, 38, 37
Penrith : 36, 37, 40, 40, 39
Sydney OH : 32, 30, 32, 31, 32
Nowra : 35, 37, 31, 37, 34
Canberra : 34, 37, 38, 39, 37
The N-NW pattern is not that strong, so sea breezes should moderate conditions near the coast. The BOM's heatwave service rates this as a 'Severe Heatwave' for much of NSW, including Sydney. It gets an 'Extreme' rating for parts of Sourthen NSW and the ACT.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/index.shtml
A weak Southerly arrives some time on the 26th. GFS suggests around mid-afternoon. There does not seem to be much in the way of storms or rain associated with the change, but it does look like an unsettled and potentially stormy pattern to follow. The 27th still looks warm.
Here are some forecast maxima for the January 22-26
Maitland : 34, 36, 37, 38, 37
Penrith : 36, 37, 40, 40, 39
Sydney OH : 32, 30, 32, 31, 32
Nowra : 35, 37, 31, 37, 34
Canberra : 34, 37, 38, 39, 37