NSW/ACT End of Holiday Heatwave - January 22-26, 2021

Steve777

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First 40c of Summer for the Sydney Metro?

39.9c at Penrith was damn close yesterday!
Badgerys Creek and Campbelltown both reached 40 yesterday. I think they they were Sydney’s first 40s of 2021 and of “Summer” (defined as starting December 1).

Penrith seems to be the only location East of the Divide to reach 40.
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Drove over to Maroubra this afternoon. It was very pleasant by the sea, a warm sea breeze, not a sea gale, with brilliant blue sky and ocean. It was quite crowded for a weekday but I suppose many have today off. Here’s the view from nearby cliffs:



The car thermometer showed 32-33° near home around 1:30 PM, down to 28° on the Harbour Bridge (OH would have been 30° at the time) and 27° near the beach. I suspect that the 28° on the Bridge is probably close to what the old OH site would have registered.
 

Steve777

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Another clear, warm night and morning with light winds of indeterminate direction plus cicadas. The Harbour Bridge flags are showing a brisk NW'er. The BOM have "upgraded" Sydney's forecast maximum to 37°, although I wouldn't be surprised to see it go a degree or two higher. We'll see.

Today will be the last hot day in Sydney for the time being, in fact the last sunny day. A change arrives overnight tonight (mudnight / small hours?) following which there are several cloudy days lined up for the coast, although not much rain.
 

Steve777

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This morning’s forecast of 37 for OH has probably proved correct, with a sea breeze arriving just after Noon. Elsewhere in Sydney, a number of sites have passed 40°, the hottest being the Airport which reached 41.6° before the sea breeze arrived around 2:00 PM. Cloud is now starting to move in, which might put a cap of further heating.

It is very humid for such high temperatures. OH is now on 35 / 20, Olympic Park 39 / 16.

Trivia (weird stat alert 2): nowhere in NSW outside the Sydney Metro seems to have hit 40° as at 3:00 PM.
 

Donza

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This morning’s forecast of 37 for OH has probably proved correct, with a sea breeze arriving just after Noon. Elsewhere in Sydney, a number of sites have passed 40°, the hottest being the Airport which reached 41.6° before the sea breeze arrived around 2:00 PM. Cloud is now starting to move in, which might put a cap of further heating.

It is very humid for such high temperatures. OH is now on 35 / 20, Olympic Park 39 / 16.

Trivia: nowhere in NSW outside the Sydney Metro seems to have hit 40° as at 3:00 PM.
We got to 35 at Bellambi under a strong nor- wester.
Humidity was low at 8% at the time at home.
The seabreeze was incredibly shallow all morning . You could see the boundary around 500 metres off the beach.
 

Trail Blazer

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Weird stat alert - Richmond hasn’t hit 40C yet this spring/summer. Maximums have been 39.9C in November, 38.2C in December (and an average of a paltry 27.1C) and 39.4C so far in January.

Obs Hill had two days back to back in November

By contrast, the same site had 11 days over 40C last summer (I can’t easily see Nov 2019, so maybe more) and the average in Dec 2019 was six degrees higher than Dec 2020 at 33.0C.

There was a 46.8C day as well as a 47.4C on the same day Penrith hit 48.9C.

I used to regard these two sites as pretty similar and, if anything, Richmond would be a bit warmer. But the last two summers haven’t shown this. Has the Penrith site has development near it recently or am I misremembering?
 

DaveyDavey

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Good effort for OH to pass 37. The NW was not strong enough to push the seabreeze away. The breeze has just reached Canterbury but I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't penetrate past Bankstown.

As far as being in La Nina, OH had 6 days above 30 in December and 7 (and likely to be final) this January making a total of 13 so far. Today makes it 5 in a row. I think that's the most since Jan/Feb 2011 when OH had 7 in a row in what too was a La Nina season.

Last year was an "angry summer" but a couple more interesting comparisons - last Jan had almost double the rainfall at OH and average sunshine of 5.4 hours. This Jan the sunshine to date is over 8 hours. Im expecting Feb to be more its typical - cloudier and wetter but Sydney may do it its own unique way!

Happy Aussie Day! Be safe.
 

Steve777

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…Last year was an "angry summer" but a couple more interesting comparisons - last Jan had almost double the rainfall at OH and average sunshine of 5.4 hours. This Jan the sunshine to date is over 8 hours…
I think that last year’s sunshine stats were suppressed by bushfire smoke on a number of what otherwise would have been sunny days. Even on days when smoke wasn’t at ground level, it was often aloft.

Regarding this year’s stats, the 18th is understated by about 12 hours so the month to date average should be about 0.4 higher, about 8.5 hours. The rest of January will probably pull that back a bit.
 

Steve777

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The winds are Southerly on the far South Coast but the change hssn’t reached Montague Island yet, so it's a way off. It’ll probably reach Sydney around Midnight, after which we start a new, wetter cycle.

These are probably the final numbers (maxima) for selected locations for the event:

Maitland : 35, 36, 36, 37, 38
Penrith : 37, 38, 40, 40, 41
Syd OH : 33, 32, 34, 32, 37
Nowra : 37, 32, 39, 34, 37
Canberra : 34, 36, 38, 38, 33

Five consecutive days over 31 is very unusual for OH. I think that Davey is right that this is the longest run of 30+ there since Jan-Feb 2011. Long runs of 30+ might prove more common at the new site.
 

ShavedBadger

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No idea what the outside temp is right now, I’ve been engaging in some serious denial in the lounge room with interstellar on bluray, bourbon on ice, and all the blinds shut.

Roll on tomorrow.
 

Homer

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The winds are Southerly on the far South Coast but the change hssn’t reached Montague Island yet, so it's a way off. It’ll probably reach Sydney around Midnight, after which we start a new, wetter cycle.

These are probably the final numbers (maxima) for selected locations for the event:

Maitland : 35, 36, 36, 37, 38
Penrith : 37, 38, 40, 40, 41
Syd OH : 33, 32, 34, 32, 37
Nowra : 37, 32, 39, 34, 37
Canberra : 34, 36, 38, 38, 33

Five consecutive days over 31 is very unusual for OH. I think that Davey is right that this is the longest run of 30+ there since Jan-Feb 2011. Long runs of 30+ might prove more common at the new site.

The change is through Montague now. I think it will arrive in the Metro between 12 and 3 am, unless it speeds up which they sometimes do.

I notice on the 4.20 pm forecast update that the BOM have increased rainfall totals for Thursday/Friday.
OH - 14 - 40 mm's.
Penrith - 18 - 45 mm's
That was a bit of a surprise. I'm happy if it comes to fruition as my lawn has become very brown and crunchy lately after being so thick and lush in the New Year. How quickly it fades.
 

Donza

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Quite a bit of cloud now with light showers inbound.
Keeping a lid on it
 

Majikthise

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By contrast, the same site had 11 days over 40C last summer (I can’t easily see Nov 2019, so maybe more) and the average in Dec 2019 was six degrees higher than Dec 2020 at 33.0C.

There was a 46.8C day as well as a 47.4C on the same day Penrith hit 48.9C.

I used to regard these two sites as pretty similar and, if anything, Richmond would be a bit warmer. But the last two summers haven’t shown this. Has the Penrith site has development near it recently or am I misremembering?
AWS for the 'rith is at the lakes..no development near by but this is an interesting read and may give you some insights..
 

Jonathan_P

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Getting darker...
B85CCF79-7182-40FE-86C7-576E19F14C56.jpeg
 
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Sideny

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The very light rain band has arrived here. Barely even wetting the ground but i guess its better than nothing.

Edit:
Dont get excited about it. I think its mostly Virga, Places higher up like katoomba has seen a decent drop in temps. While in the metro it's barely nudged.
 

Homer

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Raining here now as well.
Basically every drop is drying as it hits the still heated pavers.
However, it's nice to inhale that rain odour after a hot day.
 
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Lady Penelope

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After a sultry morning (and following on from those nasty mid to high 30 degree temps over the past few days) we finally have some rain and a cool change coming through here in Canberra. The lovely sound of rain ....
 

ShavedBadger

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It’s mostly still now, here in Newcastle. Blue-grey clouds scud southeast across a white-gold sunset sky, offering little in the way of promise. The odd breeze puffs its hot breath down across the house, cicadas and other insects express their impatience as the world breathes, sweats and waits. The distant gum trees sway with occasional hope, then resume regal stillness in their guard of honour along the banks of Styx creek.

Magpies and Cockatoos are engaged in treeborne pubtime conversation, each taking bets on when the weather will turn. And it will, no matter what the impatient plover says.
 

Billy_Buttons

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It’s mostly still now, here in Newcastle. Blue-grey clouds scud southeast across a white-gold sunset sky, offering little in the way of promise. The odd breeze puffs its hot breath down across the house, cicadas and other insects express their impatience as the world breathes, sweats and waits. The distant gum trees sway with occasional hope, then resume regal stillness in their guard of honour along the banks of Styx creek.

Magpies and Cockatoos are engaged in treeborne pubtime conversation, each taking bets on when the weather will turn. And it will, no matter what the impatient plover says.
Love it! :thumbs:
 

Steve777

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…Magpies and Cockatoos are engaged in treeborne pubtime conversation, each taking bets on when the weather will turn. And it will, no matter what the impatient plover says.
I got up early this morning. The dawn chorus was particularly loud today. Lots of Sulphur Crested Cockatoos seem to have moved into the area in the last couple of weeks. Those plus magpies, kookaburras, lorikeets, miner bitds and God knows what. All of this plus the cicadas in a calm, clear sunrise, at about 22° relatively cool. I live in a street of medium-rise buildings but also lots of trees with parks nearby, so lots of room for birds. We’ve also got bush turkeys who’ve moved into the area in the last few years.

Yes, love it.
 
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Steve777

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The change is just arriving here, a couple of hours earlier than expected. The winds have picked up quite a bit and turned Southerly anyway. I suspect that the real change may be following. It hasn’t affected temperatures much so far.

Had a bit of big drop rain around 9:00 PM. Also thought I saw sheet lightning to the south but I think that was the Harbour fireworks.
 

Steve777

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=== (Statistical nerdery warning)

There has been some comment here and also in the media about Sydney's recent hot spell, five consecutive 30°+ maxima at Sydney OH ending Australia Day*. It was reported to be the longest such spell since 2011.

However, while even the old site would probably have managed five 30+ days in this event, for the new site the last such run was not so long ago, about this time last year in fact. It reached 30° on each of the five days January 30 to February 3, 2020. Further, it reached 30° on 8 of the 9 days January 26 to February 3, 2020.


* In fact it was five days with maxima of at leat 31.9°, just missing out on being five consecutives days of 90°F+ maxima, which would have been a big deal back in the day.
 
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