European Snow Season 2018/2019

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Snowmaker7, Sep 9, 2018.

  1. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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  2. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
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    :thumbs: Excellent roundup and at least as comprehensive as other long range forecasts on offer. I think we will see some interesting dynamics this season. Can you envisage the Alutian Low zonal centre moving North- Northwest in the next 3 or so weeks ?
     
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  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
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  6. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Yeah for the next two weeks it should stay around the Bering Sea, but with time will move south, in accordance with the Niño base state.
     
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  7. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 Hard Yards

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    Currently in Bologna and going to Cortina on the 17th of Dec. Don't think they will get a hell of a lot out of this system being on the southern side of the alps but they will be able to make a heap of man made, and whatever snow does fall, it will be to the village. Should be some decent skiing above 1800m or so. Going to Chamonix on the 3rd of Jan and has just started snowing, and probably wont stop until the end of next week, with EC going for 1m+ over the western alps for that period! Coming down pretty hard at the moment in Argentiere village at approx. 1350m:

     
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  8. Joe

    Joe Hard Yards

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    Austria Ischgl nicely blanketed, hope its like this next season for our planned 19/20 trip. Yet to do a European ski trip where its delivered so early.

     
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  9. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 Hard Yards

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    Same cam from above at 1350m in Chamonix. Pretty nice fall, I'd say 20-30cm going off the snow on the roof, and still coming down hard:

     
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  10. Snow Dog

    Snow Dog Hard Yards

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    Some local observations around Chamonix.
    Firstly - this is, by far, the biggest precip event we've seen since arriving at the end of Jan. Was a long hot dry summer.
    Saturday town temps were around 7c with lots of rain, progressively lowering to 1c throughout Sun night and all day Monday - Cham town (circa 1,030m) and down to Les Houches are currently a big brown puddle. Dropped the eldest at school in town in driving sleet this morning. BUT - different story when I went up to Argentiere to drop the little one at school @1,250M. The snow line has sat at 1,200M for 36 hours - at least 30cm around school, snow ploughs etc etc. Bottom of Le Tour, a little further up the valley @1,450m has 65cm of fresh heavy wet snow in the village - which is just perfect for a base and perfect timing. Was funny seeing a number of cars driving around Cham town today with 1/2 a metre of snow on the roof - in the rain. A number of the dads and mums at school are guides and have been up and about - so will find out how much further up but expect it is easily 1m+. Awesome set up. Hope they can get some lifts going this weekend..........but that's a whole other story here.
     
  11. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker
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    Swiss Valais today
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Dat Bomb crater above the far-left 'lanche run out...
     
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  13. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker
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    They regularly bomb there and have that area closed after a decent fall.
     
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  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
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    Saalbach reporting 50cm. And still falling.
     
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  15. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    Mürren is looking damn fine
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
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    Clearing up to sunshine in Italy with a nice cover in Dolomites. Staying cold for a few days with very cold frosty nights perfect for ground cooling.
     
  17. Whiteman

    Whiteman A Local
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    :woohoo::woohoo::woohoo:
     
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  18. XTREMO

    XTREMO Old n' Crusty
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    Nice pics. Pray for more snow. I would quite like to go riding around Xmas time since its my Xmas staying in Europe for quite a while!
     
  19. Snow Dog

    Snow Dog Hard Yards

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    15cm in the Cham valley on Sat night. 1c and raining hard at 1,060M on Sun morning. Went up to 1,900M - still 1c and rained all day. Freeze line retreated to 2,400M on Sun. Another 10cm in the valley on Sun night. Raining again this morning.
    I'd say great snow above 2,000M at this stage and at <2,000M is heave rain impacted cover. This looks to be the cycle for the next few weeks with freeze line up and down with good snow at >2,000 but lots of wet below.
     
  20. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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  21. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
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  23. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    It be rather strong. I've been relatively out of the loop, but I believe the Ventrice plots are a bit more relaxed than expected.
     
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  24. blackice

    blackice Addicted

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    Hey @Jellybeans1000 do you have any thoughts about next week in the 3 Valleys? I’ve been scouring the EU snow forecast websites for the last three weeks but there is almost zero consensus and the day to day variability is huge (not to mention the uniformly awful layouts).

    There is some consensus that there will be snow Wed/Thurs but none on the amount. Your long range mentions heavy falls on the back of this system, is GFS still looking that way?
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Strange systems that one (Wednesday) as it’s heavily influenced by that Atlantic block to its West; meaning the Low drops from the North, rather than the West/NW. Not an overly moist system as a result.

    The system do Sunday through Tuesday looks better IMO.
     
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  26. blackice

    blackice Addicted

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    Thanks @POW_hungry. Searching “snow forecast courchevel” gets me anything from 3 to 26cm Tue-Thurs. The long range over the last week or two have been all over the place.

    The Sunday/Tuesday system you refer to is the 6-8 or the 13-15?

    Nothing on EU forecasts for 6-8 and I thought the following weeks system wasn’t happening till the Monday or Tuesday.
     
  27. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    13-15th. Focus is on the Sunday IMO.


    Again, similar theme with cold north winds.

    Many of those automated forecasting tools are not very good at all. I reckon stick to yr.no, it looks like EC doesn't mind Tuesday and Wednesday this week for about 20-30cm.

    The models are trying to decipher the next "phase" of the NH wind circulation, with a kick back to Niño like conditions, and a SSW in the Stratospheric Polar Vortex. So verifications will probably be lower than normal ATM.
     
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  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
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    GFS likes Austria but overly bullish imo.
     
  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
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    Not a bad atmospheric river in the lead up imo.Hopefuly the dropsonde updates will verify this IVT plot
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Sunday week. 8 days from now.
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Austria will win on Tues/Weds purely out of orographic aspect. AUT loves a Northerly system.
     
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  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
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    Yep have experience quite a number of them ;)
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Love AUT. That’s where i’d Be if I was in Europe.
     
  34. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
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    Well Saalbach is certainly getting some weather. Reporting 60cm overnight and still coming down.
     
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  35. Heinz

    Heinz Old n' Crusty
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    Friend of mine in Hinterthal by Maria Alm has reported 1m of new snow in the last week.
     
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  36. blackice

    blackice Addicted

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    Thanks @Jellybeans1000 and @POW_hungry. I’m on the TGV from Paris to Moutier as I type this. 20-30cm will do me nicely :)

    I’ll post some Obs later in the week :)
     
    #186 blackice, Jan 5, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2019
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  37. Hyst

    Hyst One of Us
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    Looks like a look down!
     
  38. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 Hard Yards

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    Arrived in Chamonix yesterday for the next 8 nights. From what I can see the models are going for around 15-20cm down to the valley on Tues and Wed which would be great. Pretty cold towards the back end so there should be some decent quality snow around!
     
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  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
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    Click on image to fog goggles ;) Glemmtal road is closed ( no getting out of valley) due to extreme heavy snow. First time since 2005 when a huge avalanche burried the road for 3 days
     
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  40. Kimski

    Kimski Addicted

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    Any hope for snow in France in the new future? I’ll be skiing in the 3 Valleys from 28th Jan and it would be good to have some hope. Austria is stealing all the snow :cry:
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    The Atlantic block is doing no favours for France and the Pyrenees. Keep an eye on that shift, in the LR the models suggest it has a shift South over the next 10 days or so but it’s a bit of a punt yet.
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Austria... throw another shrimp on the barbie....
     
  43. XTREMO

    XTREMO Old n' Crusty
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    Its definitely looking like an AUT year. Kicking myself a bit for booking in Val'Dizzle in Feb. Still hoping though.
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    One of my favourite Tyrolean towns was evacuated On Sunday due to the risk of winds causing an avalanche. Reminds me of my first winter there in Jan 2012, where several metres fell across the region in a few weeks.
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Reverse jetstream forging through cont Europe towards the end of this week, this looks to supply a series of frigid system into Cont. Europe over the next week or so, possibly longer.
    Colder and drier in the East, and a thoroughfare for Winter systems through the West/South of the continent.


     
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  46. Snow Dog

    Snow Dog Hard Yards

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    wacko - looking forward to it
     
  47. XTREMO

    XTREMO Old n' Crusty
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    Give it to me straight, Doc! Is Val d'Isere about to cop a shellacking of white stuff the likes of which the world has never seen before? Or not?
     
  48. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 Hard Yards

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    Pretty heavy sago this morning here in Chamonix, enough to turn the village white. Hoping for more moisture overnight and the 20-30cm which they are forecasting! If we were only a matter of 200km east we would have metres of the white stuff:headbang: always the case isn't it:thumbs: Plan to ski on thursday with hopefully clear skies and a bit of fresh!
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    French Alps will largely miss out here. I don’t see much for the French Alps over the next week due to that pesky >1038 omega block off the coast of Brittany. It’s a real player. It’s largely forcing systems inbound from the North the Netherlands/German, leaving the Western fringe of the Alps in a shadow over the next week.

    There may still be some ok falls out of this System on Sunday/Monday, but nothing like those in Austria, Switzerland and the likes.
     
  50. XTREMO

    XTREMO Old n' Crusty
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    wheres the dislike button when you need it?
     
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