European Winter 2017/18 - Predictions and Observations

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Kopite, Oct 10, 2017.

  1. Kopite

    Kopite New Member

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    My first thread in the weather section! As I'm off to the Alps in February, thought I'd start a thread for Europe 2018. Any thoughts from those far more skilled in meterology than me appreciated! As a start - 2 days ago in Val Thorens...

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Nothing out of the ordinary for the the EU resorts and Alps at the moment. Still getting some very warm anoms across the board. Definitely looks like a typical Autumn pattern to me.
    Bit early to tell how the season will pan out from a climatic stand point, but major models a hinting at a broadscale change on the back end of next week.
    That said models do tend to struggle long range in these inter-seasonal months.

    Will keep an eye on it for you.
     
  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC & GFS both pointing to a decent ULL at the end of the runs (circa 28/29OCT). It's starting to stick on recent runs.
    So far away, but worth keeping an eye on.
     
  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    A little lick for Britain
     
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  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Still a long way off- Possibly the first real glimpse of node activity impacting European resorts IMO. Temp anomolies aloft and 2 metre temps are however nothing but normal leading up to the event.
     
  7. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    I'm in the UK (West Yorkshire) over these dates. We looking at a cold blast or?
     
  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Too far out from date to take a punt.
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I think we'll see 5-10cm for much of the Western Europe Alps above 1600m for this weekend. Beyond this there's bugger all agreement between the models.
    In fact EC Ensembles suggests a nice block pattern heading into the start of November which is pretty typical at this time of year.
    IMO.
     
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  10. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Some ground cooling prior to the first good falls would be good.
     
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  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Strong temp anomolies possibly on the way.
     
  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Blocking pattern still hanging about for a while but its only a matter of time IMO
     
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  14. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Ground cooling...

     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Simplon Pass, CH (webcam at around 2000m ASL)
     
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  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Snow in town Sankt Anton.
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Lee-side troughing out of this current system over the Alps puts the first snowfalls into the upper reaches of The Balkans (Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo etc.) over the next couple of days... Up to a foot in some parts above 1900m.
    [​IMG]
     
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  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Have a look at the 14 day forecast in Kranjska Gora on J2ski.
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah, EC/GFS's backing that system on the 2nd big time. Still awhile away but it is a stonker.
     
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  20. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I can't be bothered making a punt, so I will repost this really good post on Netweather, talking about the long range.
    Has a UK focus, but has relevance for all of Europe IMO.
     
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  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Yes it is bullish and EC not on board but a hopecast anyway. GFS has more upgrades . Nothing to sneeze at IMO . Punchy vorticity from 850 to well above 500 hPa. Pressure gradients could probably vary considerably by the time it arrives ( that volatile time of year) but it looks promising.
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah mate, EC was on board last night. as per a couple of posts up.
    Looks solid.
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Block does have the upper hand but it's there. Particularly for Eastern Europe.
     
  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    EC and GFS still agreeing on this and the second event
     
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  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    GFS going for a biggish event on 7 Nov.
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Some falls over the next week or so (15-20cm here/there 29OCT, 2/3NOV), but otherwise I see a block pattern establishing itself well into NOV.
    Very normal pattern and need not worry IMO, very early days yet.
     
  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    EC has moved towards GFS suggestion on the 6th Nov. Not huge but agreeance is good
     
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  30. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Some good falls coming Sunday/ Monday. Next weekend sees the potential start of an Interesting merging of 2 Low pressure centres.
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Tirol (Austria & Italy) region shall do particularly will tonight.
    Some massive falls across the Dolomites (Trentino region) due in the next 24.

    Mount Civetta
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  34. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    EC upgrade
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    30-50cm in the Dolomites over the last 24.
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    This is pretty much good to go, I reckon. GFS & EC both hand in hand for a cold outbreak next Mon/Tues.
    Problem is it lacks moisture. Maybe 10cm at best at this stage.
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    And GFS has gone a little kooky beyond 240 ( looking at the loop). A break in the blocking pattern ?. Hmm can only hope
     
  38. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    It is early days however. Winter hasn't even started yet.
     
  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    I need a good base by Jan. 8
     
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  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Slight change in rotation/ steering pattern is on the way mid month IMO. Blocking Highs begone
     
  41. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I love that Arctic blocking set up. But the European blocking needs to go.
    Probably behind the massive shift to a -AO.
     
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  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    You been on snowheads lately ?
     
  43. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Not really. Busy with other projects. Do you post there?
     
  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    No just visit sometimes.
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Running the GFS/EC 500mb Northern Hemi, it's clear to me that the PV has strengthened ahead of winter (we ideally want a weak PV). This means the blocks/+AO has the upper hand for the foreseeable.
    [​IMG]
    The long waves are struggling with the blocking scenario in the Euro-Atlantic up until at least the 19th IMO. The system on the 13/14th looks 'ok' but does to lack moisture and depth.
    This is kinda the same thing that's going on across the US (block in the bearing sea, GoA). All pretty-normal for this time of year.
     
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  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    GFS getting quite exited with 19/ 20 November. Some reasonable moisture and vort in it.
     
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  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    GFS downgrade for 20th as expected . Still some warm air advection prior to 13th event ,pushing freeze levels up and not enough available moisture for big numbers IMO Cooler mean temps arriving around 22nd
     
  48. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Looks familiar :D
     
  50. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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