Cyclone Ex-TC Esther - An interior washout

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POW_hungry

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Ex-TC Esther.
Looking likely to affect nearly every mainland territory of Aus; having form in the GoC and move Westward through NT & WA. Models (EC in particular) now progging an absorption into the mid-lats through NE SA and NSW.
EC's latest progg could be very damaging to some interior regions.

Fair way out, plenty to mull over. First week of March looking like a fair bit to chew on for NSW IMO.

Today's EC 00c run:
Screen Shot 2020-02-28 at 10.18.11 pm.png
 

Steve777

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Jul 4, 2019
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The models are still showing different futures for this system:

GFS: the system fizzles out in the Kimberly, but an inland low develops near Birdsville, which transitions into an inland trough, followed by an Easterly trough off the coast. Some useful inland falls but heaviest falls near the coast. The outcome we don’t want.

EC: system moves across the continent from the Kimberley to the NSW South Coast and escapes into the Tasman. Widespread inland falls followed by a focus on SE NSW (coast and inland)

Access: Esther moves into Central Australia, weakening as it goes. Its remains join with an inland trough bringing widespread inland rain, with a bullseye on the NSW Central West. It crosses the coast and spawns a Tasman Low, which quickly moves away.
 

Jacko4650

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May 15, 2014
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One of the most volatile systems I can recall for a while. Every time I look at a predictive model, it moves it's arm of influence. Kinda enjoying this system - as long as it doesn't impact the Fraser Coast too much by the time it moves east.
 
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mr

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Dont see plots like this at Poeppel Corner very often.

But often enough over countless millenia to create the landscape! I was listening to a podcast on the overland telegraph the other day and they got majorly washed out occasionally enough that worked stopped for months often.....im sure they would have loved a GFS plot (ironically it was the internet of the day)
 

Jacko4650

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May 15, 2014
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Dont see plots like this at Poeppel Corner very often.
Had to look it up. Not your everyday location for weather forecasting! I remembered the "NSW fart gallery" sign over the dunny in one of the $WD TV shows. Chuckle
 

Jellybeans

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Aug 24, 2015
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Lots of precipitation for the Lake Eyre catchment, then down to much of Interior NSW.
Unknown-1.png

GFS shows the precipitation avoiding Melbourne, EC shows it to be part of the system.

It's still clear that there will be strong falls in the SE NSW/ACT region.
 

MarkV

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May 4, 2016
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Lots of precipitation for the Lake Eyre catchment, then down to much of Interior NSW.
Unknown-1.png

GFS shows the precipitation avoiding Melbourne, EC shows it to be part of the system.

It's still clear that there will be strong falls in the SE NSW/ACT region.
Anyone here have a rough idea when lake Eyre water level is likely to peak? I've been there when it's dry and would love to see it with water!
 

4107

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Jul 6, 2019
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I'm supposed to be heading Flinders ranges way at easter. May end up heading further north toward Birdsville as part of the trip.
Make sure you take fly nets with you...I just did a trip 2 weeks ago out through St George, Lightning Ridge, Bourke, Cobar, Broken Hill and down to Portland in Victoria, the flies were getting pretty full on in some of the places we visited with rain they’d already had earlier, can imagine after this next lot they’ll get much worse.
 

art

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Jun 24, 2004
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....What would happen if it went higher than that?
Not sure what you are asking.
It's not going to overflow if that is what you are asking.
Higher equals more water equals greater surface area equals more tourists equals more articles about it in the media.
There is probably also a correlation with less discussion about the Bradfield scheme.
 

Majikthise

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Does anyone have any information on the highest level Lake Eyre has reached in modern times? What would happen if it went higher than that?
It just gets bigger and backs up the creeks further. There is a piece of micro continental crust deep under it which is slowly moving south that ensures it remains below MSL, for starters.
 
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Flowin

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These are not the potential imminent event, but a few photos from a flight trip I had over lake eyre in July 2010.
1) the lake - amazing thing I remember was that in some areas could not discern the horizon from the sky blue, and water blue reflection of the sky.
2) the mighty Diamantina River and it vast expanses of braided channels.

lake eyre east 3 - reduced.jpg

Diamantina River towards lake eyre.jpg
 

Rainbow Spirit

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Jul 7, 2019
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Some people in the past have made claims that flooding Lake Eyre with sea water would enhance the chances of better rainfall to the areas east of the lake. So if this has any validity would that mean that after the lake has been full from flood water that there has been increased rainfall to the east of the lake? Something I very much doubt by the way.
 
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Majikthise

Sage
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Some people in the past have made claims that flooding Lake Eyre with sea water would enhance the chances of better rainfall to the areas east of the lake. So if this has any validity would that mean that after the lake has been full from flood water that there has been increased rainfall to the east of the lake? Something I very much doubt by the way.
It ain't big enough IMO, revegetation and reforestation of our woodlands is likely to have a greater influence .
I also reckon there would be a strong correlation based purely on the climate drivers at play, ie the self evidential statement that the lake is full, therefore we have a weather setup favouring rain.
 
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