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Cyclone Ex-TC Esther - An interior washout

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by POW_hungry, Feb 28, 2020.

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  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ex-TC Esther.
    Looking likely to affect nearly every mainland territory of Aus; having form in the GoC and move Westward through NT & WA. Models (EC in particular) now progging an absorption into the mid-lats through NE SA and NSW.
    EC's latest progg could be very damaging to some interior regions.

    Fair way out, plenty to mull over. First week of March looking like a fair bit to chew on for NSW IMO.

    Today's EC 00c run:
     
  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    On EC. Seems to build a peripheral low on the edge of a longitudinal trough.

    Let's just see how that goes
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was further north (in the Tasman) on the 12Z run.
    I think the Tasman cyclone is inevitable once the instab hits it.
     
  4. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lake Eyre?
    Snow?
    :nerd:
     
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  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calmrational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Right over Lake Eyre’s catchment:

    snap.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  8. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Considering the volume of water already working it's way down from Feb rains in western Queensland, is pretty exciting for the interior.
     
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  9. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Kununurra has already recorded 260mm of rainfall from this in the last 48 hours
     
    #9 gareth_oau, Feb 29, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 29, 2020
  10. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    EC deterministic may lead to dissatisfaction for some or many.
    I prefer the ensemble estimates for these situations.


     
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  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dont see plots like this at Poeppel Corner very often. Something for ACT and the Monaro.
     
  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lots of variation on the EC Ensemble Spread.
     
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  13. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    The models are still showing different futures for this system:

    GFS: the system fizzles out in the Kimberly, but an inland low develops near Birdsville, which transitions into an inland trough, followed by an Easterly trough off the coast. Some useful inland falls but heaviest falls near the coast. The outcome we don’t want.

    EC: system moves across the continent from the Kimberley to the NSW South Coast and escapes into the Tasman. Widespread inland falls followed by a focus on SE NSW (coast and inland)

    Access: Esther moves into Central Australia, weakening as it goes. Its remains join with an inland trough bringing widespread inland rain, with a bullseye on the NSW Central West. It crosses the coast and spawns a Tasman Low, which quickly moves away.
     
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  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC is digging its heels in with 18Z Probabilities.
     
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  15. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    School camp at Kincumber this wednesday. Watching with interest.
     
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  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    18Z Ensemble Average Totals at 5 am Friday.
     
  17. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    One of the most volatile systems I can recall for a while. Every time I look at a predictive model, it moves it's arm of influence. Kinda enjoying this system - as long as it doesn't impact the Fraser Coast too much by the time it moves east.
     
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  18. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    But often enough over countless millenia to create the landscape! I was listening to a podcast on the overland telegraph the other day and they got majorly washed out occasionally enough that worked stopped for months often.....im sure they would have loved a GFS plot (ironically it was the internet of the day)
     
  19. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Had to look it up. Not your everyday location for weather forecasting! I remembered the "NSW fart gallery" sign over the dunny in one of the $WD TV shows. Chuckle
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC staying staunch with is trajectory this afternoon on the 00z run.

    Looking more and more like a god-send, now.

    BOM 4-day putting a bib on it:
     
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  21. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can''t see it yet on weatherzone but will take your word for it.
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    W/ precip via Layers (EC 00z):
     
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  24. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just made me have a better look at Layers features. You can loop the NASA EOSDIS sat pics. Can see flooding in the Balonne System just north of Hebel filling dams at Cubbie.
     
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  25. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Diamintina will flow
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    How BoM's WATL (LR) product views it. Haven't seen something so widespread in a year or two IMO.
     
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  27. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its already flowing from the rain a month or so back. Cooper and Georgina also.
     
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  28. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Should bloody go and see.
     
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  29. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm supposed to be heading Flinders ranges way at easter. May end up heading further north toward Birdsville as part of the trip.
     
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  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow factor on Probabilities
     
  32. DaveM

    DaveM One of Us

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    Enjoy that, we are heading south to Adaminaby to get some fresh mountain air :)

    Gee Klettterer I hope that happens something like advertised, would be a huge boost for Autumn for so many areas.
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM scaling back precip amounts for central NSW.
    IMO I think a widespread 20-50mm will be the going rate - on average.

    EDIT: Grabbed the wrong date range. Actually slight uptick on yesterday's WATL total.
    [​IMG]
     
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  34. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Sort of expecting the BOM to start ramping up totals this afternoon in it's 7 dayer.
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Very much siding with EC, as most would come to expect.
     
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  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 18Z run painting the canvas. Wicked Wednesday
     
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  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Average annual rainfall for Birdsville is 181 mm.
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Broad based low that deepens in Southern Tasman/SO looks like it'll deliver some corduroy to the SE NSW coastline next weekend too. Albeit Southerly swell.
    [​IMG]
     
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  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calmrational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lots of precipitation for the Lake Eyre catchment, then down to much of Interior NSW.

    GFS shows the precipitation avoiding Melbourne, EC shows it to be part of the system.

    It's still clear that there will be strong falls in the SE NSW/ACT region.
     
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  40. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes please.
     
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  41. MarkV

    MarkV One of Us

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    Anyone here have a rough idea when lake Eyre water level is likely to peak? I've been there when it's dry and would love to see it with water!
     
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  42. Rainbow Spirit

    Rainbow Spirit Hard Yards

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    Does anyone have any information on the highest level Lake Eyre has reached in modern times? What would happen if it went higher than that?
     
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  43. 4107

    4107 One of Us

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    Make sure you take fly nets with you...I just did a trip 2 weeks ago out through St George, Lightning Ridge, Bourke, Cobar, Broken Hill and down to Portland in Victoria, the flies were getting pretty full on in some of the places we visited with rain they’d already had earlier, can imagine after this next lot they’ll get much worse.
     
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  44. art

    art One of Us

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    Not sure what you are asking.
    It's not going to overflow if that is what you are asking.
    Higher equals more water equals greater surface area equals more tourists equals more articles about it in the media.
    There is probably also a correlation with less discussion about the Bradfield scheme.
     
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  45. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    It will overflow and flood Port Augusta.
     
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  46. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It just gets bigger and backs up the creeks further. There is a piece of micro continental crust deep under it which is slowly moving south that ensures it remains below MSL, for starters.
     
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  47. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hence the origin of the cities name, porta gutta.
     
  48. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    These are not the potential imminent event, but a few photos from a flight trip I had over lake eyre in July 2010.
    1) the lake - amazing thing I remember was that in some areas could not discern the horizon from the sky blue, and water blue reflection of the sky.
    2) the mighty Diamantina River and it vast expanses of braided channels.


     
  49. Rainbow Spirit

    Rainbow Spirit Hard Yards

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    Some people in the past have made claims that flooding Lake Eyre with sea water would enhance the chances of better rainfall to the areas east of the lake. So if this has any validity would that mean that after the lake has been full from flood water that there has been increased rainfall to the east of the lake? Something I very much doubt by the way.
     
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  50. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It ain't big enough IMO, revegetation and reforestation of our woodlands is likely to have a greater influence .
    I also reckon there would be a strong correlation based purely on the climate drivers at play, ie the self evidential statement that the lake is full, therefore we have a weather setup favouring rain.
     
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